It’s summer. That means hot days and warm nights are in store. That was more evident to start the week, with a warmer than normal forecast for much of the US. While things did back off, it is still warm. As we approach pollination the temps, especially overnight, are going to play a key role. The market took note this week and was busy heating up itself, with sharp gains across the grains. Whether it was due to the forecasts, China being a more active buyer, or a more bullish outlook from the USDA, corn and both the bean and wheat complexes shot off with double digit strength.
Corn overcame a midweek hiccup this week as September closed with a 16 ½ cent gain, with December 19 ½ cents higher. Following last week’s June 30 reports USDA balanced things out in the S&D tables, with US corn stocks for 2025/26 down 125 mbu from last month to 2.02 bbu. That helped to take the new crop carryout below expectations, down 170 mbu to 1.790 bbu. Monday’s Crop Progress data tallied 16% of the US corn crop as silking by July 5, with 3% in the dough stage. Condition ratings were steady at 67% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index unchanged to a 371 rating. EIA showed ethanol production trimming back 24,000 barrels per day to 1.093 million bpd in the week of 7/3. Stocks dropped 762,000 barrels in that week 23.928 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 565,810 MT in the week of July 2, with new crop sales at 401,667 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 7/7 showed managed money flipping back to a net long of 12,659 contracts of futures and options, a 58,868 contract move to the long side on the week.
The wheat complex extended the gains this week. SRW futures rallied 40 ½ cents this week for September, with KC wheat 37 3/4 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat up 33 3/4 cents in the September contract. On Friday, Crop Production showed all wheat production down just 7 mbu to 1.536 bbu. All winter wheat production was cut by 40 mbu to 990 mbu, with spring wheat at 475 mbu and larger than expected. In the WASDE, US carryout was down 22 mbu to 722 mbu. Friday also garnered strength from Russia limiting flows out of the Sea of Azov due to recent Ukrainian strikes. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 59% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions were unchanged at 26% good/excellent, or 263 on the Brugler500 index in the final rating. Spring wheat was 54% headed, with ratings back down 2% to 57% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 354 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 1 point from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of July 2 showed sales for 2026/27 at 313,103 MT. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by 6,705 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of July 7 to 62,325 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat increased their new net long by 4,845 contracts to 11,764 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans started and ended the week with strength, as August was up 55 ½ cents on the week, with November 43 cents higher. August soybean meal was $14.90 higher on the week, with August bean oil posting a 369 point gain. China was active this week, buying 872,000 MT (736,000 MT for 2026/27), with unknown buyers purchasing another 120,000 MT per daily announcements. USDA data was surprising to the bulls on Friday, with old crop carryout for the US trimmed by 10 mbu to 330 mbu and new crop steady despite the 40 mbu higher production total. Crop Progress data this week showed the US soybean crop at 34% blooming by July 5, with 9% setting pods. Crop ratings were down 1% with 64% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 365. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 54,349 MT in the week ending on 7/2. New crop business was reported just 408,250 MT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding back 37,479 contracts from their net long as of July 7, taking it to a new long of just 67,679 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle was the weak spot this week, as August live cattle futures fell $4.025 on the week. Cash trade continued to pullback, down $7-8 to $248. August feeder cattle were down $6.025 this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 83 cents week/week to $370.42. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $14.35. Choice boxes were back down $4.39/cwt on the week to $382.68, as Select was 90 cents higher at $368.33. Weekly beef production was down 5.1% from the same week last year at 469.1 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.9% on an 8.5% drop in slaughter. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds cutting back 5,892 contracts to their net long as of July 7, taking it to 113,321 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was trimming 1,374 contracts to a net long of 13,690 contracts.
Hogs were bouncing all week but ended on a higher note, with August up 25 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 87 cents this week at $92.35 as of July 8. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was stronger this week, with a gain of $2.53 since last Thursday to $101.34/cwt. The loin, ham and belly were the primals reported higher, led by the belly, up $22.04. Weekly pork production was up 3.5% from the same week last year at 511.4 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.8% above last year on a 0.3% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 1,635 contracts to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 7/7, taking the new net short to 29,002 contracts.
Cotton futures were in rally mode this week with December up 442 points since last week’s close. USDA’s monthly WASDE report showed no changes the old crop stocks at 4.2 million bales. New crop was raised by 400,000 bales to 4.1 million thanks to an identical increase to production to 13.7 million bales on the larger acreage data. Crop Progress data was released on Monday this week, showing 49% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 14% setting bolls. Condition ratings dropped another 2 percentage points at 46% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 3 points to 332. Export Sales from the week of 7/2 were tallied at 66,422 RB for old crop, with 86,971 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 230,056 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back up 92 points to 62.86 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added back 7,121 contracts to their net long in the week of July 7, taking the position to 39,106 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was back up 151 points to 63.88 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. CPI data will be released on Tuesday morning, with PPI out on Wednesday. Tuesday is also the last trade day for July grain futures, with July lean hog futures and options expiring on Wednesday. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning, as well as the monthly NOPA report. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans saw held on the leftover rocket from the 4th weekend on Monday, closing over 40 cents higher to break through several major resistance levels, including all major moving average, and the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fib retracements. The 78.6% at $11.94 ¼ was what stopped buyers and held for most of the week. From a technical standpoint, breaking above that suggests a test of $12.14. Of course, the round number $12 plays its own role as resistance. MACD says to hang onto the bullish momentum, though the ADX being at just 18 says there is no trend. Stochastics are getting into overbought territory after being in neutral for a month. That is not the same as a sell signal, as they have not crossed. If bears want their say, the argument is that we bounced off the 2/3 speedline at $11.32 straight to a retest of the 1/3 speedline at $12.07. That could be seen as a successful retest of the speedline to confirm the break. In order to ignore that, futures need to take out the $12.04 high, or just break through the $12.14 high.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Heating Up. Ag Marketing Report 07/13/2026
It’s summer. That means hot days and warm nights are in store. That was more evident to start the week, with a warmer than normal forecast for much of the US. While things did back off, it is still warm. As we approach pollination the temps, especially overnight, are going to play a key role. The market took note this week and was busy heating up itself, with sharp gains across the grains. Whether it was due to the forecasts, China being a more active buyer, or a more bullish outlook from the USDA, corn and both the bean and wheat complexes shot off with double digit strength.
Corn overcame a midweek hiccup this week as September closed with a 16 ½ cent gain, with December 19 ½ cents higher. Following last week’s June 30 reports USDA balanced things out in the S&D tables, with US corn stocks for 2025/26 down 125 mbu from last month to 2.02 bbu. That helped to take the new crop carryout below expectations, down 170 mbu to 1.790 bbu. Monday’s Crop Progress data tallied 16% of the US corn crop as silking by July 5, with 3% in the dough stage. Condition ratings were steady at 67% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index unchanged to a 371 rating. EIA showed ethanol production trimming back 24,000 barrels per day to 1.093 million bpd in the week of 7/3. Stocks dropped 762,000 barrels in that week 23.928 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 565,810 MT in the week of July 2, with new crop sales at 401,667 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 7/7 showed managed money flipping back to a net long of 12,659 contracts of futures and options, a 58,868 contract move to the long side on the week.
The wheat complex extended the gains this week. SRW futures rallied 40 ½ cents this week for September, with KC wheat 37 3/4 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat up 33 3/4 cents in the September contract. On Friday, Crop Production showed all wheat production down just 7 mbu to 1.536 bbu. All winter wheat production was cut by 40 mbu to 990 mbu, with spring wheat at 475 mbu and larger than expected. In the WASDE, US carryout was down 22 mbu to 722 mbu. Friday also garnered strength from Russia limiting flows out of the Sea of Azov due to recent Ukrainian strikes. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 59% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions were unchanged at 26% good/excellent, or 263 on the Brugler500 index in the final rating. Spring wheat was 54% headed, with ratings back down 2% to 57% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 354 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 1 point from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of July 2 showed sales for 2026/27 at 313,103 MT. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by 6,705 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of July 7 to 62,325 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat increased their new net long by 4,845 contracts to 11,764 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans started and ended the week with strength, as August was up 55 ½ cents on the week, with November 43 cents higher. August soybean meal was $14.90 higher on the week, with August bean oil posting a 369 point gain. China was active this week, buying 872,000 MT (736,000 MT for 2026/27), with unknown buyers purchasing another 120,000 MT per daily announcements. USDA data was surprising to the bulls on Friday, with old crop carryout for the US trimmed by 10 mbu to 330 mbu and new crop steady despite the 40 mbu higher production total. Crop Progress data this week showed the US soybean crop at 34% blooming by July 5, with 9% setting pods. Crop ratings were down 1% with 64% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 365. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 54,349 MT in the week ending on 7/2. New crop business was reported just 408,250 MT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding back 37,479 contracts from their net long as of July 7, taking it to a new long of just 67,679 contracts of futures and options.
Cattle was the weak spot this week, as August live cattle futures fell $4.025 on the week. Cash trade continued to pullback, down $7-8 to $248. August feeder cattle were down $6.025 this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 83 cents week/week to $370.42. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $14.35. Choice boxes were back down $4.39/cwt on the week to $382.68, as Select was 90 cents higher at $368.33. Weekly beef production was down 5.1% from the same week last year at 469.1 million lbs. Year to date production is down 5.9% on an 8.5% drop in slaughter. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds cutting back 5,892 contracts to their net long as of July 7, taking it to 113,321 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was trimming 1,374 contracts to a net long of 13,690 contracts.
Hogs were bouncing all week but ended on a higher note, with August up 25 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 87 cents this week at $92.35 as of July 8. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was stronger this week, with a gain of $2.53 since last Thursday to $101.34/cwt. The loin, ham and belly were the primals reported higher, led by the belly, up $22.04. Weekly pork production was up 3.5% from the same week last year at 511.4 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.8% above last year on a 0.3% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 1,635 contracts to their net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 7/7, taking the new net short to 29,002 contracts.
Cotton futures were in rally mode this week with December up 442 points since last week’s close. USDA’s monthly WASDE report showed no changes the old crop stocks at 4.2 million bales. New crop was raised by 400,000 bales to 4.1 million thanks to an identical increase to production to 13.7 million bales on the larger acreage data. Crop Progress data was released on Monday this week, showing 49% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 14% setting bolls. Condition ratings dropped another 2 percentage points at 46% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 3 points to 332. Export Sales from the week of 7/2 were tallied at 66,422 RB for old crop, with 86,971 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 230,056 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back up 92 points to 62.86 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders added back 7,121 contracts to their net long in the week of July 7, taking the position to 39,106 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was back up 151 points to 63.88 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week starts with the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. CPI data will be released on Tuesday morning, with PPI out on Wednesday. Tuesday is also the last trade day for July grain futures, with July lean hog futures and options expiring on Wednesday. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning, as well as the monthly NOPA report. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans saw held on the leftover rocket from the 4th weekend on Monday, closing over 40 cents higher to break through several major resistance levels, including all major moving average, and the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fib retracements. The 78.6% at $11.94 ¼ was what stopped buyers and held for most of the week. From a technical standpoint, breaking above that suggests a test of $12.14. Of course, the round number $12 plays its own role as resistance. MACD says to hang onto the bullish momentum, though the ADX being at just 18 says there is no trend. Stochastics are getting into overbought territory after being in neutral for a month. That is not the same as a sell signal, as they have not crossed. If bears want their say, the argument is that we bounced off the 2/3 speedline at $11.32 straight to a retest of the 1/3 speedline at $12.07. That could be seen as a successful retest of the speedline to confirm the break. In order to ignore that, futures need to take out the $12.04 high, or just break through the $12.14 high.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.