Channeling Your Inner Democrat. The Energy Report 06/24/2026

President Trump overnight on Truth Social posted something that brought back memories of Sleepy Joe.  This comes as we are seeing more signs that Inflation Has peaked. President Trump did his best to channel his inner Democrat and posted, “The big oil companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged.’ I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing! President DJT.”

Of course, we should give the President some leeway, as it appears that the war with Iran is turning out to be a huge success. Iran is giving in on weapons inspectors and forever giving up on its quest to get nuclear weapons and wipe Israel and the U.S. off the face of the earth. What’s more, we are seeing signs that inflation is peaking, not only with the sharp drop in oil prices but also with industrial metals, precious metals, grains, and an uptick in manufacturing.

We are seeing major shifts in oil prices as oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and, as Reuters reports, physical crude oil cargoes are selling at discounts across the globe. Trade flows are changing as markets come under pressure from fast-rising Middle Eastern supply, with Iran set to boost sales following a temporary reprieve from U.S. sanctions.

The steep drop in prices follows the 60-day interim deal between the U.S. and Iran to end the war that started on February 28, allowing some shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz, which, according to Reuters, used to see a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war.

Even as the President is unhappy with how fast gas prices have been coming down, they have fallen for seven straight weeks, angering Democrats who seem to want to use the Iran war and gas prices as a vehicle to gain brownie points with their uninformed minions. Yet maybe President Trump was upset because gasoline prices ticked up slightly overnight, breaking the downward streak.

According to the latest AAA data, the national average for regular unleaded gasoline now stands at $3.9280, up a penny from yesterday’s $3.9260. Mid-grade is $4.4410, up from $4.4290; premium sits at $4.8160, up from $4.8080; diesel eased to $4.9800, down from $5.0000; and E85 is virtually unchanged at $3.0180, compared with $3.0190.

Compared with longer-term benchmarks, the relief at the pump remains substantial. A week ago, regular gasoline was $4.0250; a month ago, it averaged $4.5150; and year-ago prices were much lower at $3.2240. Similar patterns hold across mid-grade, premium, diesel, and E85. While the minor overnight uptick may have drawn the President’s attention, the broader multi-week decline continues to deliver meaningful savings for American drivers heading into the summer driving season.

Yet this is a massive achievement, as we still have folks who, with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, thought gas prices might reach 10 dollars a gallon. You have to give credit to Trump and his team’s leadership for doing what many said was impossible.

In fact, just now the President on Truth Social made clear that “IRAN HAS INFORMED THE U.S. THAT, DESPITE TROUBLEMAKING FAKE NEWS REPORTING TO THE CONTRARY, THERE ARE ‘NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IF THIS IS FALSE INFORMATION, NEGOTIATIONS WOULD END, IMMEDIATELY! ADDITIONALLY, NO MONEY HAS BEEN GIVEN TO IRAN, OR RELEASED FROM THEIR MONEY TO THEM, BY THE U.S. WE WILL BE RELEASING SOME OF THEIR MONEY, THAT IS TOTALLY CONTROLLED BY US, TO OUR FARMERS AND RANCHERS, FOR THE PURCHASE OF CORN, WHEAT, SOYBEANS, AND MORE. FOOD IS DESPERATELY NEEDED IN IRAN, AND WE WILL BE PURCHASING IT FOR THEM EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE UNITED STATES. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.”

You even must credit his pick for Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, who seemingly sent a signal in his first press conference that is already causing the dollar to rally and inflation to cool off. He did this in such a way that we’re not seeing much of an adverse reaction in the stock market, even though we’ve pulled back a bit, and in a way that should allow businesses to start moving. In fact, while many people complained that President Trump was just jawboning the market down—which I don’t have a problem with because it has helped Americans—Kevin Warsh may be jawboning down inflation, and so far, it is having an incredible effect.

Add to that last night’s API data was bearish. Crude inventories only fell by about 765,000 barrels. That’s a draw, sure, but nothing like the massive 8.33 million barrel drop we saw the week before.

Gasoline stocks built by roughly 1.24 million barrels, and distillate inventories jumped another 1.45 million barrels.

Cushing saw another decent drop of about 982,000 barrels, which is supportive, and the SPR kept releasing oil — another 9.1 million barrels came out, pushing those reserves down to critically low levels.

Overall, this was a pretty bearish report. The crude draw was way smaller than what we’ve been seeing, and those builds in gasoline and distillates told the market we’ve got plenty of supply around in the near term and maybe some softer demand. Traders were hoping for a big headline draw with all the geopolitical noise going on, but this one just didn’t deliver. A win for the US.

On the flip side Russia is losing. Russia yesterday sent crack spreads for diesel soaring after they acknowledged that the hit to the refineries from Ukraine could cause them to stop exporting diesel fuel that means that the market would look to the US to fill that void and that got our crack spreads moving telling refiners get ready to keep the production of diesel high it seems to me that Russia might be looking for an off ramp for this war as the drones are hitting closer to home and the body count continues to rise.

Natural gas futures are holding firm near the $3.16 level this morning, showing some real resilience as the market digests a lighter-than-expected storage build and a hotter weather outlook.

The EIA reported a 66–73 Bcf injection for the latest week, with my estimate at 66 Bcf. That came in lighter than some expectations and underscored how strong cooling demand is pulling more gas into power generation. Inventories are now around 2,759 Bcf, still about 5–6% above the five-year average, but that surplus is starting to narrow as summer demand ramps up. Bulls are starting to own the joint on this tighter-than-feared refill, especially with production showing some modest dips due to maintenance.

That lighter injection is a bullish signal. It suggests the market may be tightening faster than many expected heading into peak summer. With LNG exports steady and industrial and power demand picking up, the storage picture is removing some of the overhang that weighed on prices earlier in the shoulder season.

The weather map is adding fuel to the bullish case. A strengthening ridge should bring hotter-than-normal temperatures across much of the southern and central U.S. through early July. Highs in the 90s to low 100s are expected from Texas through the Southwest, while heat and humidity build into the Midwest and East Coast. That kind of pattern should drive solid cooling demand and keep gas-fired power burn strong as air conditioners work overtime.

Some cooler pockets may linger briefly in the northern tier or Mid-Atlantic, but the broader cooling degree day forecast is turning more bullish for the next 10 to 14 days and beyond. Persistent summer heat domes are classic natural gas price supporters, so traders should watch for power demand to surge and pull more supply into storage-challenged regions.

Bottom line: Natural gas is finding support from a lighter storage injection, solid fundamentals, and a hotter weather map. Above-average storage is being worked down by stronger demand, and the Fox Weather outlook points to the potential for more upside volatility. Traders should watch resistance near recent highs and keep an eye on production and LNG flow updates for added direction. Stay nimble. Summer heat can move this market fast.

This report is for informational purposes only and reflects current market dynamics. Always do your own due diligence. For more insights, download the Fox Weather app and follow @EnergyPhilFlynn. Also stay tuned to Fox Business and call me at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.