About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat closed lower in both markets on Thursday as harvest yield reports remain low but as forecasts and reports for improving weather in Wheat areas continue.  The crop condition ratings are still among the lowest in over 30 years in HRW areas and have provided some support for prices.  Crop conditions should start to show some improvement soon but were lower last week.  The Winter Wheat harvest is more than 10% done. USDA showed deteriorating crop conditions this year as rains are now occurring in the central areas of the Great Plains and are forecast to continue. Spring Wheat progress is ahead of normal, and conditions are rated as better than the previous week.  Conditions are good in the US Midwest and in much of Europe, but Russia has been too cols.  The weather is now featuring mostly dry conditions for parts of the Midwest along with warming temperatures.  The WASDE report showed less US production based on a cut in yields.  The demand side was left unchanged and ending stocks were reduced to 744 million bushels.  The average Farm price was also cut back to 6.00/bu in response to the current price action.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

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Corn:  Corn was lower Thursday on long liquidation and despite big rains in parts of the Midwest that are causing flooding in some fields.  It should be drier this week.  The WASDE report showed a slight increase in beginning and ending stocks and no other changes.  The crop conditions are strong in the Midwest and on news of lower petroleum prices because of the Iran war.  Strong emergence progress are reported in reports released by USDA last week   Forecasts for good growing conditions continue in the Midwest.  Emergence is about normal.  Condition is rated to be good and about the same as the previous week.  It looks drier this week.  Temperatures in the Midwest should be cool for the next week.  Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there.  Oats were lower and trends are down on the weekly charts.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products were Thursday on long liquidation and on reports of improved conditions in the Midwest.   Rapid planting and emergence progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue.  Condition is rated high by USDA in the latest reports.  The WASDE report showed no changes from last month.  Futures were also lower on the lack of news on China.  Cooler temperatures and wet weather are expected for the next week in the Midwest.  There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted as Corn planting is more expensive.  The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

 

Rice:  Rice closed much higher on Thursday on short covering and despite good weather in growing areas.  The WASDE report showed an uptick in yields and production for long grain with all Rice left unchanged.  Long grain demand was left unchanged and the ending stocks were a little higher.  The average farm price was left unchanged at 12.00/cwt for long grain and 13.50 for all Rice.  USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year.  Emergence is ahead of average, and condition was about unchanged last week.  Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice, but was good last week.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was lower last week along with outside markets and Canola was a little higher as conditions remain hot and dry in the Prairies

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was lower yesterday on long liquidation before the long weekend.  USDA showed that squaring and emergence were running at near or above normal last week and the condition showed moves from poor and good to fair.  USDA showed that condition is still well behind year ago levels.  The WASDE report on Thursday showed reduced beginning and ending stocks with the rest of the supply and demand data left unchanged.  Ending stocks are now estimated at 3.70 million bales.    Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for Texas, the Delts, and the Southeast.  Temperatures will be variable.  Trends are turning up on the daily and weekly charts.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  Futures were higher and trends are turning mixed on the daily and weekly charts.  It is still dry in Florida.  The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported.  The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil.  Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London were lower Thursday on long liquidation before the long weekend in the US and despite harvest delays in both Brazil and Vietnam.  The next crop is developing well in South America and Asia amid good conditions, but the rain seen lately have pushed the harvest progress behind year ago levels.  World production conditions are generally good.  Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as Central America.  Vietnam has had some showers but producers are not selling and are waiting for a move higher in prices.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

 

Sugar:  Both markets were higher again yesterday.  The Iran war may have stopped as both sides are ready to sign a memorandum of understanding this week in Geneva.  Trends are mixed or down on the daily charts in both markets.  There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world.  Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:   New York was a little lower Thursday while London closed higher.  Daily trends are mixed in both markets, but trends are turning up now.  A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322