AgMaster Report – 06/17/2026

JULY CORN

July Corn has retreated 75 cents since early May due to very benign weather conditions for the emerging crop & a reduction in the War Premium! Now with the week-end news that a peace accord will be signed Friday, the mkt removed the remaining premium and actually rallied a bit in reaction in a buy-the-rumor/sell/the/fact manner! Both domestic & export demand has been exemplary & the current sharp break even enhances the export potential! The US/China Deal will soon kick in – acres could be down 3-4ma from 2025 & dryness in some growing areas is still a concern! And the mkt is still historically cheap! Finally Trump will help the ag mkts as he needs the Farm Vote for the Nov Mid-terms!

 

JULY BEANS

Since early May, Beans have plummeted $1.30 – in reaction to the peace potential in Iran, disappointment in no solid exports emanating from the US-China deal & excellent growing conditions for the nascent crop! This W/E’s report of an MOU (MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING) between the US & Iran further depleted the war premium – which had already been discounted – so the mkt short-covered higher! We feel the substantial break in beans will entice China to begin its buying program – agreed to 3-4 wks ago at the Beijing Summit! President Trump has the lowest approval ratings of his 2^nd term & will actively curry the Farm Vote for the Mid-terms in the Fall! Plus you can’t rule out weather issues for the crop as there’s a long way to the “finish line”!

 

JULY WHEAT

Much like its sister mkts corn & beans, July Wht has had a large correction down since its harvest started & the war appeared to be winding down! The mkts upside reversal today seemed to indicate the mkt had already dialed in the stripping of the war premium out of the price structure! The newly harvested crop is already short due to the drought & the plus $1.00 break should enhance its export potential abroad!

 

AUG CATTLE

Aug Cat was a major beneficiary of 2 macro events – the US-IRAN Peace deal & the spreading screw-worn incidences – as it rallied to a 1-month high – to a level only $5.00 off its contract highs! The war resolution brings down gas prices – freeing up the consumer dollar in the supermarket & the screw-worm issues implies less supply! As well, the consumer doesn’t seem to be balking at the record-high beef prices at the retail level!

 

AUG HOGS

The long-term bear mkt that defines Aug Hogs continues to confound Hog Pundits – who can’t understand why the cost-conscious consumer continues to opt for the record-high beef when the much cheaper pork products are available! Even a strong DJI of late can’t seem to rally the hogs! Larger carcass weights also seem to be pressuring the mkt! Eventually, the consumer will make the switch – but not yet!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337