Later this next week, we are going on a mini vacation to see a few (more specifically four) historical faces. In order to get there, it is at least a 5-hour drive. Over the course of those five hours, we are going to have three Tiny Tyrants (as my wife likes to call them) tagging along. I’m sure over this lengthy drive there will be several questions, one of which will include the well-known phrase, “Are we there yet?” If you’ve watched the grain market over the past several weeks, I’m sure you’ve been asking yourself a very similar question. Wheat may have better bottoming action than the rest, but corn is still looking for that pesky low end of this steep descent, with a likely candidate an old chart gap from September at $4.05 ¼. We got close on Friday, but are we there yet? Well, our bias says we’re close. Gaps are meant to be filled and that box hasn’t been checked off just yet.
Corn losses were more on the marginal side this week, but still down another 4 ¾ cents from last Friday. December slipped 5 ¾ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 97% of the US corn crop planted as of June 7, with emergence at 86%. Condition ratings were steady at 67% good/excellent, with a 372 rating on the Brugler500 index. WASDE data from Thursday showed a 3 mbu increase to US carroyout at 2.145 bbu, with new crop up 3 mbu to 1.96 bbu. World supplies were higher, with Argentina up 2 MMT and Brazil raised by 3 MMT. EIA showed ethanol production steady at 1.108 million bpd in the week of 6/5. Stocks were down 154,000 barrels in that week 24.452 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1 MMT in the week of June 4. New crop sales were 926,645 MT in that week. Monthly trade data from Tuesday showed 7.52 MMT in corn shipments during April, down 3.37% from last year. Commitment of Traders data as of 6/9 showed managed money slashing another 120,407 contracts from their net long to a new net short of 5,325 contracts of futures and options.
The wheat complex continued was mixed this week with the winter wheat’s holding up. MPLS spring wheat was the lagger, down 1 ¼ cents. July KC wheat was the leader to the upside, back up 13 3/4 cents from the previous Friday, with Chicago 4 1/2 cents higher on the week. NASS Crop Progress data from Tuesday showed 11% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions slipped 1% to 25% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index was down 6 to 263 points. Spring wheat was 98% planted and 87% emerged. Spring wheat ratings were up 5% to 52% of the crop in good/excellent condition, a 350 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 7 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of June 4 showed sales for 2026/27 at 666,259 MT. Census trade data indicated 1.865 MMT in wheat shipments during April, a 3-year low for the month. Crop Production data showed winter wheat down 18 mbu to 1.029 bbu on a cut to yield. That transferred through the balance sheet and took new crop carryout to a projected 744 mbu, down 18 mbu from May. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by a weekly record of 21,536 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of June 9 to 79,407 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back another 18,020 contracts from their net long position, to a net short of 4,543 contracts.
Soybeans continued the pressure, with July sliding another 8 cents, as November was 5 ½ cents lower. July soybean meal was down $7.20/ton, with July bean oil back up 16 points. Crop Progress data tallied the US soybean crop at 92% planted by June 7, with emergence listed at 79%. Crop ratings were down 1% this week, showing 65% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which translates to a 367 on the Brugler500 index, down 2 points on the week. WASDE data showed offsetting demand changes by transferring 20 mbu from exports to crush, with old crop US stocks steady at 340 mbu. New crop stocks were steady at 310 mbu. Argentina was the only major change on the world side, up 2 MMT. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 211,292 MT in the week ending on 6/4. New crop business was reported at 141,500 MT. Census data showed 3 MMT in soybean shipments during April, the second larger on record for the month. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds slashing another 65,294 contracts from their net long as of June 9, taking it to 90,756 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle were on the steadier side, down just 47 cents. Cash trade was slightly weaker this week at $255 late across the country. August feeder cattle was $3.52 higher on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $6.63 week/week to $368.01. The total number of screwworm cases in the US has climbed to 9, with 1 dog in New Mexico, as well as 2 goats and 6 head of cattle in Texas. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $19.21. Choice boxes were down 77 cents/cwt on the week to $391.93, as Select was $9.97 (-2.6%) lower at $372.72 as of Friday. JBS announced a planned closure of its Souderton, PA slaughter plant this morning. The plant has a kill capacity of nearly 2,000 head/day. Weekly beef production was 2.1% below the last week and down 2.8% from the same week last year at 468.9 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.3% on a 9.0% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data showed live cattle spec traders at a net long of 109,002 contracts of futures and options as of Tuesday, trimming back 5,962 contracts from the week prior. Managed money in feeder cattle adding back 77 contracts to their long to 10,920 contracts.
Hogs faded lower again this week, as July was down $1.35 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 39 cents this week at $92.90 as of June 10. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a correction, with a loss of $3.79 on the week to $97.39/cwt. The butt was the driver, down $10.13, with the belly the only primal reported higher, up $3.80. Weekly pork production was down 0.9% from last week but up 3.2% from the same week last year at 524.2 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.4% above last year on a 0.5% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 7,150 contracts to their new net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 6/9, taking the new net short to 13,701 contracts.
Cotton posted continued weakness this week, with July down 81 points and December 106 points lower. Crop Progress data was released on Tuesday this week, showing 77% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, with 13% squared. Condition ratings were listed at 53% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 345 for the first rating this year. Export Sales from the week of 6/4 were tallied at 207,032 RB for old crop, with 298,689 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 300,114 RB. WASDE data from USDA showed a 200,000 bale cut to old crop stocks at 4.2 million bales, with exports up 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales. New crop was down by that same amount at 3.7 million bales. Spec traders cut their net long by 10,198 contracts in the week of June 9, taking the position to 42,204 contracts. The Adjusted World Price slipped another 194 points to 61.26 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. The Fed will conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday, with most expecting to see rates unchanged. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday per normal. Thursday will round the week out with the weekly Export Sales data published in the morning, with Cattle on Feed data released that afternoon. The markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Juneteenth.
Tech Talk: November Soybean
November soybeans eased on some of their recent liquidation this last week. Following the head and shoulders top, with a count at $11.26 ¼, the market effectively reached that count on Thursday before bouncing. That was near the 38.2% Fib retracement support (black line) from the LOC low to the May high at $11.25 ¾. Outside of that, the 50% Fib retracement support from the rally since January is at $11.34 ¾. The 61.8% is at $11.16, with a 2/3 speedline off that same move at $11.22. MACD is heavily bearish, though ADX is still low at 23. Stochastics are crossing in oversold, but have not exited for a buy signal.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Are We There Yet? Ag Marketing Report 06/15/2026
Later this next week, we are going on a mini vacation to see a few (more specifically four) historical faces. In order to get there, it is at least a 5-hour drive. Over the course of those five hours, we are going to have three Tiny Tyrants (as my wife likes to call them) tagging along. I’m sure over this lengthy drive there will be several questions, one of which will include the well-known phrase, “Are we there yet?” If you’ve watched the grain market over the past several weeks, I’m sure you’ve been asking yourself a very similar question. Wheat may have better bottoming action than the rest, but corn is still looking for that pesky low end of this steep descent, with a likely candidate an old chart gap from September at $4.05 ¼. We got close on Friday, but are we there yet? Well, our bias says we’re close. Gaps are meant to be filled and that box hasn’t been checked off just yet.
Corn losses were more on the marginal side this week, but still down another 4 ¾ cents from last Friday. December slipped 5 ¾ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 97% of the US corn crop planted as of June 7, with emergence at 86%. Condition ratings were steady at 67% good/excellent, with a 372 rating on the Brugler500 index. WASDE data from Thursday showed a 3 mbu increase to US carroyout at 2.145 bbu, with new crop up 3 mbu to 1.96 bbu. World supplies were higher, with Argentina up 2 MMT and Brazil raised by 3 MMT. EIA showed ethanol production steady at 1.108 million bpd in the week of 6/5. Stocks were down 154,000 barrels in that week 24.452 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1 MMT in the week of June 4. New crop sales were 926,645 MT in that week. Monthly trade data from Tuesday showed 7.52 MMT in corn shipments during April, down 3.37% from last year. Commitment of Traders data as of 6/9 showed managed money slashing another 120,407 contracts from their net long to a new net short of 5,325 contracts of futures and options.
The wheat complex continued was mixed this week with the winter wheat’s holding up. MPLS spring wheat was the lagger, down 1 ¼ cents. July KC wheat was the leader to the upside, back up 13 3/4 cents from the previous Friday, with Chicago 4 1/2 cents higher on the week. NASS Crop Progress data from Tuesday showed 11% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions slipped 1% to 25% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index was down 6 to 263 points. Spring wheat was 98% planted and 87% emerged. Spring wheat ratings were up 5% to 52% of the crop in good/excellent condition, a 350 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 7 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of June 4 showed sales for 2026/27 at 666,259 MT. Census trade data indicated 1.865 MMT in wheat shipments during April, a 3-year low for the month. Crop Production data showed winter wheat down 18 mbu to 1.029 bbu on a cut to yield. That transferred through the balance sheet and took new crop carryout to a projected 744 mbu, down 18 mbu from May. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by a weekly record of 21,536 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of June 9 to 79,407 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back another 18,020 contracts from their net long position, to a net short of 4,543 contracts.
Soybeans continued the pressure, with July sliding another 8 cents, as November was 5 ½ cents lower. July soybean meal was down $7.20/ton, with July bean oil back up 16 points. Crop Progress data tallied the US soybean crop at 92% planted by June 7, with emergence listed at 79%. Crop ratings were down 1% this week, showing 65% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which translates to a 367 on the Brugler500 index, down 2 points on the week. WASDE data showed offsetting demand changes by transferring 20 mbu from exports to crush, with old crop US stocks steady at 340 mbu. New crop stocks were steady at 310 mbu. Argentina was the only major change on the world side, up 2 MMT. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 211,292 MT in the week ending on 6/4. New crop business was reported at 141,500 MT. Census data showed 3 MMT in soybean shipments during April, the second larger on record for the month. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds slashing another 65,294 contracts from their net long as of June 9, taking it to 90,756 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle were on the steadier side, down just 47 cents. Cash trade was slightly weaker this week at $255 late across the country. August feeder cattle was $3.52 higher on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $6.63 week/week to $368.01. The total number of screwworm cases in the US has climbed to 9, with 1 dog in New Mexico, as well as 2 goats and 6 head of cattle in Texas. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $19.21. Choice boxes were down 77 cents/cwt on the week to $391.93, as Select was $9.97 (-2.6%) lower at $372.72 as of Friday. JBS announced a planned closure of its Souderton, PA slaughter plant this morning. The plant has a kill capacity of nearly 2,000 head/day. Weekly beef production was 2.1% below the last week and down 2.8% from the same week last year at 468.9 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.3% on a 9.0% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data showed live cattle spec traders at a net long of 109,002 contracts of futures and options as of Tuesday, trimming back 5,962 contracts from the week prior. Managed money in feeder cattle adding back 77 contracts to their long to 10,920 contracts.
Hogs faded lower again this week, as July was down $1.35 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 39 cents this week at $92.90 as of June 10. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a correction, with a loss of $3.79 on the week to $97.39/cwt. The butt was the driver, down $10.13, with the belly the only primal reported higher, up $3.80. Weekly pork production was down 0.9% from last week but up 3.2% from the same week last year at 524.2 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.4% above last year on a 0.5% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 7,150 contracts to their new net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 6/9, taking the new net short to 13,701 contracts.
Cotton posted continued weakness this week, with July down 81 points and December 106 points lower. Crop Progress data was released on Tuesday this week, showing 77% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, with 13% squared. Condition ratings were listed at 53% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 345 for the first rating this year. Export Sales from the week of 6/4 were tallied at 207,032 RB for old crop, with 298,689 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 300,114 RB. WASDE data from USDA showed a 200,000 bale cut to old crop stocks at 4.2 million bales, with exports up 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales. New crop was down by that same amount at 3.7 million bales. Spec traders cut their net long by 10,198 contracts in the week of June 9, taking the position to 42,204 contracts. The Adjusted World Price slipped another 194 points to 61.26 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. The Fed will conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday, with most expecting to see rates unchanged. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday per normal. Thursday will round the week out with the weekly Export Sales data published in the morning, with Cattle on Feed data released that afternoon. The markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Juneteenth.
Tech Talk: November Soybean
November soybeans eased on some of their recent liquidation this last week. Following the head and shoulders top, with a count at $11.26 ¼, the market effectively reached that count on Thursday before bouncing. That was near the 38.2% Fib retracement support (black line) from the LOC low to the May high at $11.25 ¾. Outside of that, the 50% Fib retracement support from the rally since January is at $11.34 ¾. The 61.8% is at $11.16, with a 2/3 speedline off that same move at $11.22. MACD is heavily bearish, though ADX is still low at 23. Stochastics are crossing in oversold, but have not exited for a buy signal.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.