Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, PPI, and PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., WASDE along with 15-Year & 320-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
US consumer inflation accelerated again in May, with the CPI rising 0.5% from April and 4.2% from a year ago. The monthly increase was driven primarily by energy, as the energy index climbed 3.9% and gasoline jumped 7.0%, accounting for more than 60% of the total headline gain. Food prices rose a modest 0.2%, while grocery increased just 0.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose o.2% on the month and 2.9% over the past year, higher than ideal but far less than the headline number. Shelter continued to rise, up 0.3% in May, while some categories, such as motor vehicle insurance and household furnishings, declined. The report suggest energy is again complicating the inflation outlook, but the inflation has been driven by a supply shock, not an overheated economy. For most households and businesses, the energy increase has already had a far greater economic impact than an interest rate hike. In fact, a rate cut is likely needed to maintain economic growth.
US Energy Market Update
Energy Market Risks Increase; US Crude Inventories Drop to Test Historic Lows:
There’s hope that Middle East crude production and export flows will normalize, but energy market supply & price risk will only be completely eliminated with peace between the US/Israel & Iran. The US crude balance sheet continues to tighten, rather than loosen, and the pace of stocks tightening becomes unsustainable by mid-July. The US liquidated another 8 Mil Barrels from its strategic crude reserve in the week ending June 5th. Commercial crude inventories last Friday totaled 427 Mil Barrels, vs. 434 Mil the previous week and down 1% year-over-year. However, Total US crude inventories last week fell to 776 Mil barrels, down 15 from the previous week, and the lowest since September 2023. Total US crude stocks fall to newer record lows by July if importers are forced to rely on US exports to bridge supply gaps. The need for a peace accord is growing.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Global Corn Market Lacks Fresh News; Chaotic US Weather to be Monitored:
CBOT corn ended flat. Global FOB premiums are mixed but have been largely stagnant in the last 30 days. ARC’s research suggests the market will be defined by choppiness and relative stability as the summer weather pattern takes shape. Although seedings data will be the focus of traders, ARC expects the Stocks report could be more important if NASS does not forecast a slower US corn feed/residual use rate as cattle, pork, and poultry add weight by staying on feed longer. A record-large feed/residual use in Q3 would further tug US corn stocks lower. The US has started a new military campaign on Iran to fully reopen the Straight of Hormuz to restart the flow of energy and fertilizers. If the straight is not fully reopened by the end of July, the impact on South American fertilizer supplies will be important. Look for war premium to be added back into corn following today’s USDA June report. Abundant Central US moisture and on going South American corn harvests cap rallies nearby. European demand for US corn imports will be large. And ARC, myself and other traders/analysts maintain high hope that China will import 5-15 MMT’s of corn in the 2026/27 crop year. Use breaks to make new purchases and feed and ethanol grind needs into early 2027.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
June WASDE Time. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/11/2026
We kickoff the day with PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, PPI, and PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., WASDE along with 15-Year & 320-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
US consumer inflation accelerated again in May, with the CPI rising 0.5% from April and 4.2% from a year ago. The monthly increase was driven primarily by energy, as the energy index climbed 3.9% and gasoline jumped 7.0%, accounting for more than 60% of the total headline gain. Food prices rose a modest 0.2%, while grocery increased just 0.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose o.2% on the month and 2.9% over the past year, higher than ideal but far less than the headline number. Shelter continued to rise, up 0.3% in May, while some categories, such as motor vehicle insurance and household furnishings, declined. The report suggest energy is again complicating the inflation outlook, but the inflation has been driven by a supply shock, not an overheated economy. For most households and businesses, the energy increase has already had a far greater economic impact than an interest rate hike. In fact, a rate cut is likely needed to maintain economic growth.
US Energy Market Update
Energy Market Risks Increase; US Crude Inventories Drop to Test Historic Lows:
There’s hope that Middle East crude production and export flows will normalize, but energy market supply & price risk will only be completely eliminated with peace between the US/Israel & Iran. The US crude balance sheet continues to tighten, rather than loosen, and the pace of stocks tightening becomes unsustainable by mid-July. The US liquidated another 8 Mil Barrels from its strategic crude reserve in the week ending June 5th. Commercial crude inventories last Friday totaled 427 Mil Barrels, vs. 434 Mil the previous week and down 1% year-over-year. However, Total US crude inventories last week fell to 776 Mil barrels, down 15 from the previous week, and the lowest since September 2023. Total US crude stocks fall to newer record lows by July if importers are forced to rely on US exports to bridge supply gaps. The need for a peace accord is growing.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Global Corn Market Lacks Fresh News; Chaotic US Weather to be Monitored:
CBOT corn ended flat. Global FOB premiums are mixed but have been largely stagnant in the last 30 days. ARC’s research suggests the market will be defined by choppiness and relative stability as the summer weather pattern takes shape. Although seedings data will be the focus of traders, ARC expects the Stocks report could be more important if NASS does not forecast a slower US corn feed/residual use rate as cattle, pork, and poultry add weight by staying on feed longer. A record-large feed/residual use in Q3 would further tug US corn stocks lower. The US has started a new military campaign on Iran to fully reopen the Straight of Hormuz to restart the flow of energy and fertilizers. If the straight is not fully reopened by the end of July, the impact on South American fertilizer supplies will be important. Look for war premium to be added back into corn following today’s USDA June report. Abundant Central US moisture and on going South American corn harvests cap rallies nearby. European demand for US corn imports will be large. And ARC, myself and other traders/analysts maintain high hope that China will import 5-15 MMT’s of corn in the 2026/27 crop year. Use breaks to make new purchases and feed and ethanol grind needs into early 2027.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374