A look the table below shows a nasty week in most of the ag commodities. All of the grains were down double digits, in a range of 4.5% to 6.7% lower. Corn most notably was in what we call death spiral liquidation. The longs that had been piling in on the previous crude strength, excellent exports, prospects of China buying, etc., all wanted out at the same time. Whether that is due to heading into the growing season with lack of a weather story, or China not buying anything, or South American FOB offers falling, the longs wanted out and the shorts were saying to leave your wallet at the door. Hence the term of the death spiral, the velocity of the fall tends to accelerate the more they want out. Even though the grains are very oversold, charts tend to get overrun in environments like that.
Corn losses extended this week, with July down 29 ¼ cents and December falling another 29 cents. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 93% of the US corn crop planted as of May 31, still running ahead of the 92% average pace. Emergence was at 76%. Initial corn ratings came in a 67% good/excellent, a 371 rating on the Brugler500 index (100-500 point scale of the 5 USDA categories), which was a 3-year low and the third lowest initial rating in the last 13 years. EIA indicated ethanol production back up 19,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/29, to 1.108 million bpd. Stocks were down 362,000 barrels in that week 24.606 million barrels. Grain Crushing data from NASS showed 427.68 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in April, a 9.9% drop from March but 1.05% larger yr/yr. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at just 883,332 MT in the week of May 28. New crop sales were 243,716 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 6/2 showed managed money slashing 90,422 contracts from their net long to 115,082 contracts of futures and options.
The wheat complex continued their pressure this week, facing another round of sharp losses. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the downside, with 44 ¼ cent loss this week. July KC wheat was down 29 cents from the previous Friday, with Chicago falling 30 ½ cents on the week. NASS Crop Progress data from Tuesday showed 5% of the US winter wheat crop harvested. Conditions were steady at 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was up 1 to 269 points. Spring wheat was 94% planted and 72% emerged. The first spring wheat rating of the year showed 47% of the crop in good/excellent condition, a 343 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 3 points from the same week last year. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of May 28 was a net cancellation of 642,239 MT for old crop. Some of that was likely rolled to the next marketing year, with net sales of 838,507 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by a weekly record of 39,165 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of June 2 to 57,871 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back 13,393 contracts from their net long position at 13,447 contracts.
Soybeans were falling for much of the week, but faced late week pressure, as July was down 65 ¼ cents. July soybean meal was down $21.30/ton, with July bean oil back down 360 points. Crop Progress data tallied the US soybean crop at 87% planted by May 31, well above the 80% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 65%. Crop ratings were released this week, showing 66% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which translates to a 369 on the Brugler500 index, a 3-year low, and the 4th lowest initial rating in the last 13 years. Fats & Oils data showed soybean crush during April at 218.4 mbu, down 5.76% from March but up 7.94% from April 2025. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 276,852 MT in the week ending on 5/28. New crop business was reported at 243,000 contracts. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds cutting back another 33,502 contracts from their net long as of June 2, taking it to 1526,050 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle bounced around this week, as the June contract back up $1.825 seeing some late week gains. Cash trade was steady this week at $256-258 across the country. August feeder cattle was up $5.47 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $12.02 week/week to $361.38. Futures saw some volatility after there was a case of New World Screwworm case reported in the South Texas in the middle part of this week, buying the fact after selling rumors earlier in the week. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $10.01. Choice boxes were up $1.23/cwt on the week to $392.70, as Select was 49 cents (-0.1%) lower at $382.69 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.3% below the same post-holiday week last year at 479.1 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.5% on a 9.1% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data showed live cattle spec traders at a net long of 114,964 contracts of futures and options as of Tuesday, adding back 5,605 contracts from the week prior. Managed money in feeder cattle adding back 248 contracts to their long to 10,843 contracts.
Hogs faded the early strength again this week, as June was down $1.55 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up $1.59 this week at $92.51 as of June 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw some more strength this week, up $1.73 on the week to $101.18/cwt. Weekly pork production was up 4.9% from the same week last year at 530 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.3% above last year on a 0.6% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money flipping 19,536 contracts from a net long to net short in lean hog futures and options in the week of 6/2, taking the new net short to 6,551 contracts.
Cotton posted weakness this week, with July down 240 points and December 211 points lower. Crop Progress data was released on Tuesday this week, showing 66% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, 1% behind the planting pace. Export Sales from the week of 5/28 were tallied at 185,268 RB for old crop, with 77,145 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 268,799 RB. Spec traders cut back a portion of their net long by 1,798 contracts in the week of June 2, taking the position to 52,402 contracts. The Adjusted World Price slipped another 29 points to 63.20 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for June live cattle futures. April trade data will be out on Tuesday from Census. CPI data will be put on Wednesday, as well as the weekly EIA data. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning, as well as PPI data. The monthly WASDE report will also be released on Thursday. June lean hog futures and options expire on Friday, as do July cotton options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a downright awful week. The collapse led things back to the January low, with futures picking off stops below that low of $4.45 ¼ on Friday. The one positive for the bulls? We did see some buying into the close off that low. The other positive is the fact that stochastics are very oversold. The positive for the bears after a 29 cent collapse this week was MACD is still heavily bearish with increasing momentum and a rising ADX. The $4.45 area will be one to watch come early next week as it feels like a perfect place for some buying. However, I would not recommend trying to catch a falling knife with that much momentum. The life of contract low remains at $4.39.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Death Spiral. Ag Marketing Report 06/08/2026
A look the table below shows a nasty week in most of the ag commodities. All of the grains were down double digits, in a range of 4.5% to 6.7% lower. Corn most notably was in what we call death spiral liquidation. The longs that had been piling in on the previous crude strength, excellent exports, prospects of China buying, etc., all wanted out at the same time. Whether that is due to heading into the growing season with lack of a weather story, or China not buying anything, or South American FOB offers falling, the longs wanted out and the shorts were saying to leave your wallet at the door. Hence the term of the death spiral, the velocity of the fall tends to accelerate the more they want out. Even though the grains are very oversold, charts tend to get overrun in environments like that.
Corn losses extended this week, with July down 29 ¼ cents and December falling another 29 cents. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 93% of the US corn crop planted as of May 31, still running ahead of the 92% average pace. Emergence was at 76%. Initial corn ratings came in a 67% good/excellent, a 371 rating on the Brugler500 index (100-500 point scale of the 5 USDA categories), which was a 3-year low and the third lowest initial rating in the last 13 years. EIA indicated ethanol production back up 19,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/29, to 1.108 million bpd. Stocks were down 362,000 barrels in that week 24.606 million barrels. Grain Crushing data from NASS showed 427.68 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in April, a 9.9% drop from March but 1.05% larger yr/yr. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at just 883,332 MT in the week of May 28. New crop sales were 243,716 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 6/2 showed managed money slashing 90,422 contracts from their net long to 115,082 contracts of futures and options.
The wheat complex continued their pressure this week, facing another round of sharp losses. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the downside, with 44 ¼ cent loss this week. July KC wheat was down 29 cents from the previous Friday, with Chicago falling 30 ½ cents on the week. NASS Crop Progress data from Tuesday showed 5% of the US winter wheat crop harvested. Conditions were steady at 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was up 1 to 269 points. Spring wheat was 94% planted and 72% emerged. The first spring wheat rating of the year showed 47% of the crop in good/excellent condition, a 343 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 3 points from the same week last year. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of May 28 was a net cancellation of 642,239 MT for old crop. Some of that was likely rolled to the next marketing year, with net sales of 838,507 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by a weekly record of 39,165 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of June 2 to 57,871 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back 13,393 contracts from their net long position at 13,447 contracts.
Soybeans were falling for much of the week, but faced late week pressure, as July was down 65 ¼ cents. July soybean meal was down $21.30/ton, with July bean oil back down 360 points. Crop Progress data tallied the US soybean crop at 87% planted by May 31, well above the 80% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 65%. Crop ratings were released this week, showing 66% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which translates to a 369 on the Brugler500 index, a 3-year low, and the 4th lowest initial rating in the last 13 years. Fats & Oils data showed soybean crush during April at 218.4 mbu, down 5.76% from March but up 7.94% from April 2025. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 276,852 MT in the week ending on 5/28. New crop business was reported at 243,000 contracts. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds cutting back another 33,502 contracts from their net long as of June 2, taking it to 1526,050 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle bounced around this week, as the June contract back up $1.825 seeing some late week gains. Cash trade was steady this week at $256-258 across the country. August feeder cattle was up $5.47 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $12.02 week/week to $361.38. Futures saw some volatility after there was a case of New World Screwworm case reported in the South Texas in the middle part of this week, buying the fact after selling rumors earlier in the week. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $10.01. Choice boxes were up $1.23/cwt on the week to $392.70, as Select was 49 cents (-0.1%) lower at $382.69 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.3% below the same post-holiday week last year at 479.1 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.5% on a 9.1% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data showed live cattle spec traders at a net long of 114,964 contracts of futures and options as of Tuesday, adding back 5,605 contracts from the week prior. Managed money in feeder cattle adding back 248 contracts to their long to 10,843 contracts.
Hogs faded the early strength again this week, as June was down $1.55 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up $1.59 this week at $92.51 as of June 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw some more strength this week, up $1.73 on the week to $101.18/cwt. Weekly pork production was up 4.9% from the same week last year at 530 million lbs. Production so far this year is up 0.3% above last year on a 0.6% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money flipping 19,536 contracts from a net long to net short in lean hog futures and options in the week of 6/2, taking the new net short to 6,551 contracts.
Cotton posted weakness this week, with July down 240 points and December 211 points lower. Crop Progress data was released on Tuesday this week, showing 66% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, 1% behind the planting pace. Export Sales from the week of 5/28 were tallied at 185,268 RB for old crop, with 77,145 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 268,799 RB. Spec traders cut back a portion of their net long by 1,798 contracts in the week of June 2, taking the position to 52,402 contracts. The Adjusted World Price slipped another 29 points to 63.20 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for June live cattle futures. April trade data will be out on Tuesday from Census. CPI data will be put on Wednesday, as well as the weekly EIA data. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning, as well as PPI data. The monthly WASDE report will also be released on Thursday. June lean hog futures and options expire on Friday, as do July cotton options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a downright awful week. The collapse led things back to the January low, with futures picking off stops below that low of $4.45 ¼ on Friday. The one positive for the bulls? We did see some buying into the close off that low. The other positive is the fact that stochastics are very oversold. The positive for the bears after a 29 cent collapse this week was MACD is still heavily bearish with increasing momentum and a rising ADX. The $4.45 area will be one to watch come early next week as it feels like a perfect place for some buying. However, I would not recommend trying to catch a falling knife with that much momentum. The life of contract low remains at $4.39.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.