Softs Report 06/05/2026

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DJ Food Prices Mostly Stable in May But Middle East Conflict Threatens Broader Shock, UN Says — Update
By Giulia Petroni
World food prices were broadly stable in May, with increases in cereal and sugar offset by declines in vegetable oils and dairy products, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
The FAO’s food price index–which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities–averaged 130.8 points last month, down 0.2% from its revised April level but still 2.9% higher than a year ago, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising fertilizer costs pose a growing threat to global food markets.
The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent global fertilizer prices sharply higher, raising concerns about a broader shock to the global food system.
The FAO has previously warned the closure could mark the start of a “systemic” agrifood shock that might evolve into a severe global food-price crisis. Farmers are facing increasingly difficult decisions that could shape global food production through 2027, including cutting fertilizer use and accepting lower yields, switching to alternative crops, or absorbing sharply higher costs that could threaten their financial viability, according to the organization.
The risks are compounded by the expected arrival of the El Nino weather system, which could bring drought and disrupt rainfall patterns across key farming regions, further tightening global food supplies.
Cereal prices rose 2.6% last month, with wheat climbing on concerns over shrinking harvests and higher fuel and fertilizer costs, the FAO said Friday. Corn remained supported by strong demand and tighter supplies in Brazil and the U.S., while sorghum and barley increased mainly due to spillover effects. Rice prices also moved higher, lifted by weather worries and rising energy costs in key Asian exporting countries.
Sugar climbed 7.5% in May, the highest level since October of last year, on growing concerns that global supplies could tighten in the months ahead. In Brazil, expectations that more sugarcane would be diverted to ethanol production supported the market, though strong late-April processing helped temper gains. Concerns that El Nino could curb output in India and Thailand next season added to supply concerns and bolstered prices.
Vegetable-oil prices instead fell 4.6%–the first monthly decline since the beginning of the year–dragged by lower palm and soybean oil prices, which outweighed gains in rapeseed and sunflower oils. Palm oil prices fell due to weaker import demand expectations and uncertainty in crude markets, while rapeseed and sunflower oil prices rose on tightening supplies, particularly in the European Union and Ukraine.
Meat prices were almost unchanged, rising by 0.1% from April as higher bovine, ovine, and poultry meat prices were largely offset by lower pig meat prices. Beef and sheep meat gained on strong demand from China and the U.S., while poultry prices edged higher due to firm global demand. In contrast, pig meat prices fell amid abundant supplies and weaker import demand, particularly in the EU. Overall meat prices, however, were still 6.3% higher on year.
Dairy prices fell 0.5% as butter prices continued to decline on improved supply and intensifying competition among exporters, while cheese prices were little changed. Skim milk powder rose on solid import demand from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, while whole milk powder was mixed, with modest price increases in Oceania offset by lower quotations in Europe.

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was much lower yesterday on weaker export sales and on improving weather for Cotton growing areas of the US. USDA showed that planting progress and emergence were running at near normal last week and the weather has improved with increased precipitation for all areas, but mostly the Delta and Southeast. Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for Texas. Temperatures will be variable. Trends are mixed to down on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.80, 74.00, and 73.40 July, with resistance of 80.00, 81.70 and 83.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The market firmed along with most commodities markets on news that a potential MOU with Iran only was waiting on President Trump to approve it. It is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 148.00, 142.00, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 173,00 178.00, and 188.00 July

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower again yesterday. The US and Iran are still negotiating even with the war turning hotter again. The next crop is developing well in South America and Asia amid good conditions. World production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had drier weather and conditions there are called good. Some showers are starting to appear there.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 233.72 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 242.00, 236.00, and 230.00 July, and resistance is at 262.00, 390.00 and 287.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3180, and 3120 July, with resistance at 3610, 3650, and 3680 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were a little higher yesterday. The Iran war drags on and the strait of Hormuz remains closed. The war has increased world petroleum prices and could divert demand from Sugar production to production of ethanol. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1370, 1340, and 1310 July and resistance is 1550, 1570, and 1600 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 404.00, 398.00, and 392.00 August, with resistance at 457.00, 468.00, and 474.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were lower again yesterday. Daily trends are mixed in both markets. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3490 July, with resistance at 4460, 4780, and 5130 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2750, 2710, and 2500 July, with resistance at 3350, 3550, and 3690 July.

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