Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Fed Paulson Speech at 7:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:15 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20- Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rally Pauses; Traders Await China Grain Duty Cut:
CBOT corn futures ended slightly weaker in yesterday’s action. The market awaits word from China that it has dropped tariffs on imported US grains. When Chinese tariffs are dropped to zero, Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) purchases of US corn and sorghum are expected. Interior US sorghum basis has done little in the last two weeks after improving from $1.20 under to $.94 Under. Sorghum basis historically weak and will continue to displace corn at S Plains ethanol plants. The evolution of basis at River terminals is unremarkable and broadly aligned with seasonal norms. US corn seeding estimates are declining as farmers note that Prevent Plant dates in drought-affected area of the Plains begin May 25th. Amid the high cost of fertilizer, producers have told ARC that they will look to collect Prevent Plant payments rather than taking risk to planting corn in the dust. Corn planting costs are record high, above $900/acre and TX, OK, KS, and NE farmers , the risk/reward is not stacked in favor of planting corn. US 2026 corn seeding could drop 1-1.5 Mil acres to 93.5-94.0 Mil acres.
Will US/China Talks Develop into Fruition. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/20/2026
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Fed Paulson Speech at 7:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:15 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20- Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rally Pauses; Traders Await China Grain Duty Cut:
CBOT corn futures ended slightly weaker in yesterday’s action. The market awaits word from China that it has dropped tariffs on imported US grains. When Chinese tariffs are dropped to zero, Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) purchases of US corn and sorghum are expected. Interior US sorghum basis has done little in the last two weeks after improving from $1.20 under to $.94 Under. Sorghum basis historically weak and will continue to displace corn at S Plains ethanol plants. The evolution of basis at River terminals is unremarkable and broadly aligned with seasonal norms. US corn seeding estimates are declining as farmers note that Prevent Plant dates in drought-affected area of the Plains begin May 25th. Amid the high cost of fertilizer, producers have told ARC that they will look to collect Prevent Plant payments rather than taking risk to planting corn in the dust. Corn planting costs are record high, above $900/acre and TX, OK, KS, and NE farmers , the risk/reward is not stacked in favor of planting corn. US 2026 corn seeding could drop 1-1.5 Mil acres to 93.5-94.0 Mil acres.
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Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374