There’s a saying that ‘no news is good news.’ However, a look at the grain market this week will tell you that isn’t always the case. After some anticipation from the market heading into the meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi this week, traders were left with disappointments out of the two-day event. Very little news or details were announced following the meeting and comments late on Thursday and Friday left things up for a wide range of interpretation. With analysts looking for something out of the meeting to get hooked on, the buy the rumor/sell the fact reaction turned into buy the rumor/collapse in the non-news.
Corn extended the losses to this week mainly on late week pressure, as July was down 15 ½ cents, with December 12 ½ cents in the red. Crop Progress data showed 57% of the US corn crop planted as of May 10, still running ahead of the 52% average pace. Emergence was at 23%. WASDE data showed a 15 mbu increase to old crop US ending stocks to 2.142 bbu, with the new crop projection comingin at 1.957 bbu, near estimates. South American production was up 10 MMT via Argentina (+7) and Brazil (+3). EIA indicated ethanol production back up 65,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/8, to 1.082 million bpd. Stocks saw a draw of 1.15 million barrels in that week 24.87 million barrels. A House bill to approve E15 sales did pass, and is on its way to the senate for debate. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at just 684,786 MT in the week of May 7. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/12 tallied managed money at a net long of 299,483 contracts of futures and options in corn, a 44,442 contract increase on the week.
The wheat complex held up this week across all three markets, despite late week pressure. MPLS spring wheat was the lagger this week, with July up 6 ¾ cents higher. July Chicago was up 16 ¾ cents to lead the way, with July Kansas City 12 ¼ cents higher. NASS Crop Progress data from Monday showed 61% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were down 3% to 28% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was down 19 to 277 points. Spring wheat was 53% planted and 23% emerged. The Kansas Wheat Quality Tour was this week, with a tour average yield of 38.9 bpa. That was the lowest average yield for the tour since 2023, and the second lowest since 2018. The production total was 218 mbu. The USDA Crop Production report showed winter wheat output at 1.048 bbu, well below estimates, with all wheat production at 1.561 bbu. WASDE data showed old crop stocks at 935 mbu, which was down 3 mbu, with new crop US stocks at 762 mbu. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 30 was 133,485 MT for old crop, with 221,143 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by 9,120 contracts to 19,023 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 12. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back just 79 contracts to their net long position at 37,790 contracts.
Soybeans fell on Friday, with late week pressure pushing the losses for July to 31 cents, as November was 18 ¾ cents lower. July soybean meal was up $14.60/ton, with July bean oil down 44 points. Much of the pressure came from the lack of apparent progress with the Trump/Xi meeting late in the week. USDA’s Crop Progress tallied the US soybean crop at 49% planted by May 10, well above the 36% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 20%. The monthly WASDE report showed a 10 mbu drop to US 2025/26 ending stocks at 340 mbu, with new crop well below estimates at 310 mbu. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at just 102,059 MT in the week ending on 5/7. NOPA data showed April crush at 211.86 mbu, a record for the months but down 6.33% from the month prior. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back 6,802 contracts from their net long of 214,815 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle bounced this week, with the June contract up $5 (2.01%) since last Friday. Cash trade extended the rally, with a push to $260-265 this week across the country. Feeders were under pressure, with August down $2.775 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $4.74 week/week to $370.09. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 1,831 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 144 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, with 62 active in Neuvo Leon, and 12 in the bordering state of Coahuila. The closest case was 79 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread went home Friday even. Choice boxes were up 86 cents/cwt on the week to $389.25, as Select was $4.24 (1.1%) higher at $389.25 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.4% above the week prior and down 2.3% from the same week last year at 480.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.7% on a 9.3% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 130,965 contracts, a reduction of 11,079 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. Feeders were cutting back 3,539 contracts from their net long to 15,186 contracts.
Hogs closed the week with the June contract 12 cents in the green. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 54 cents this week at $90.48 as of May 13. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was unchanged over the course of the Friday/Friday at $97.56/cwt. The loin and belly primals were the only reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 3.6% from last week at 516.4 million lbs, which is 0.3% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is up 0.1% from last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 10,222 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/2, taking the total to 40,860 contracts.
Cotton was busy retreating this week, with July falling 412 points, as December was down 355. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 29% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 1 point ahead of normal. USDA Cotton Ginnings data from Tuesday showed a total of 13.539 million RB ginned for the 2025/26 crop, which was down 535,750 RB compared to last year. Monthly WASDE data showed 2025/26 cotton yield at 852 lbs/ac, with production at 13.9 million bales. Old crop ending stocks were left at 4.4 million bales. New crop stocks for 2026/27 were at 3.9 million bales. Export Sales from the week of 4/30 were tallied at 47,699 RB for old crop, with 29,716 for new crop, as shipments were at 290,293 RB. Spec traders extended their new net long of by another 8,386 contracts in the week of 5/12, taking the position to 59.570 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 228 points to 71.87 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week starts with the Monday Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. May feeder cattle futures and options expire on Thursday. Friday will be the release of the monthly Cattle on Feed report. June serial grain options expire on Friday before the long weekend.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans hit a new high for the move at $12.14 this week before retreating. After breaking out of an ascending triangle and rejecting a test of the previous $11.74 resistance, bulls gave a second attempt to testing the count off the triangle at $12.30. That lasted a few days before the breach above $12 was rejected by the Trump/Xi silence. Futures are back below the upper end of the triangle at the Friday close, with the uptrend support at $11.63. That is near the 40-day moving average at $11.64 ¼ and the 1/3 speedline off the January low at $11.64. Needless to say, the $11.64 area is key support. More immediate support is an uptrend line at $11.71 getting tested at the close. Stochastics are in neutral, with MACD just getting triggered bearish on Friday.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
No News Isn’t Always Good News. Ag Marketing Report 05/18/2026
There’s a saying that ‘no news is good news.’ However, a look at the grain market this week will tell you that isn’t always the case. After some anticipation from the market heading into the meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi this week, traders were left with disappointments out of the two-day event. Very little news or details were announced following the meeting and comments late on Thursday and Friday left things up for a wide range of interpretation. With analysts looking for something out of the meeting to get hooked on, the buy the rumor/sell the fact reaction turned into buy the rumor/collapse in the non-news.
Corn extended the losses to this week mainly on late week pressure, as July was down 15 ½ cents, with December 12 ½ cents in the red. Crop Progress data showed 57% of the US corn crop planted as of May 10, still running ahead of the 52% average pace. Emergence was at 23%. WASDE data showed a 15 mbu increase to old crop US ending stocks to 2.142 bbu, with the new crop projection comingin at 1.957 bbu, near estimates. South American production was up 10 MMT via Argentina (+7) and Brazil (+3). EIA indicated ethanol production back up 65,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/8, to 1.082 million bpd. Stocks saw a draw of 1.15 million barrels in that week 24.87 million barrels. A House bill to approve E15 sales did pass, and is on its way to the senate for debate. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at just 684,786 MT in the week of May 7. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/12 tallied managed money at a net long of 299,483 contracts of futures and options in corn, a 44,442 contract increase on the week.
The wheat complex held up this week across all three markets, despite late week pressure. MPLS spring wheat was the lagger this week, with July up 6 ¾ cents higher. July Chicago was up 16 ¾ cents to lead the way, with July Kansas City 12 ¼ cents higher. NASS Crop Progress data from Monday showed 61% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were down 3% to 28% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was down 19 to 277 points. Spring wheat was 53% planted and 23% emerged. The Kansas Wheat Quality Tour was this week, with a tour average yield of 38.9 bpa. That was the lowest average yield for the tour since 2023, and the second lowest since 2018. The production total was 218 mbu. The USDA Crop Production report showed winter wheat output at 1.048 bbu, well below estimates, with all wheat production at 1.561 bbu. WASDE data showed old crop stocks at 935 mbu, which was down 3 mbu, with new crop US stocks at 762 mbu. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 30 was 133,485 MT for old crop, with 221,143 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by 9,120 contracts to 19,023 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 12. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back just 79 contracts to their net long position at 37,790 contracts.
Soybeans fell on Friday, with late week pressure pushing the losses for July to 31 cents, as November was 18 ¾ cents lower. July soybean meal was up $14.60/ton, with July bean oil down 44 points. Much of the pressure came from the lack of apparent progress with the Trump/Xi meeting late in the week. USDA’s Crop Progress tallied the US soybean crop at 49% planted by May 10, well above the 36% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 20%. The monthly WASDE report showed a 10 mbu drop to US 2025/26 ending stocks at 340 mbu, with new crop well below estimates at 310 mbu. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at just 102,059 MT in the week ending on 5/7. NOPA data showed April crush at 211.86 mbu, a record for the months but down 6.33% from the month prior. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back 6,802 contracts from their net long of 214,815 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle bounced this week, with the June contract up $5 (2.01%) since last Friday. Cash trade extended the rally, with a push to $260-265 this week across the country. Feeders were under pressure, with August down $2.775 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $4.74 week/week to $370.09. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 1,831 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 144 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, with 62 active in Neuvo Leon, and 12 in the bordering state of Coahuila. The closest case was 79 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread went home Friday even. Choice boxes were up 86 cents/cwt on the week to $389.25, as Select was $4.24 (1.1%) higher at $389.25 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.4% above the week prior and down 2.3% from the same week last year at 480.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.7% on a 9.3% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 130,965 contracts, a reduction of 11,079 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. Feeders were cutting back 3,539 contracts from their net long to 15,186 contracts.
Hogs closed the week with the June contract 12 cents in the green. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 54 cents this week at $90.48 as of May 13. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was unchanged over the course of the Friday/Friday at $97.56/cwt. The loin and belly primals were the only reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 3.6% from last week at 516.4 million lbs, which is 0.3% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is up 0.1% from last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 10,222 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/2, taking the total to 40,860 contracts.
Cotton was busy retreating this week, with July falling 412 points, as December was down 355. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 29% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 1 point ahead of normal. USDA Cotton Ginnings data from Tuesday showed a total of 13.539 million RB ginned for the 2025/26 crop, which was down 535,750 RB compared to last year. Monthly WASDE data showed 2025/26 cotton yield at 852 lbs/ac, with production at 13.9 million bales. Old crop ending stocks were left at 4.4 million bales. New crop stocks for 2026/27 were at 3.9 million bales. Export Sales from the week of 4/30 were tallied at 47,699 RB for old crop, with 29,716 for new crop, as shipments were at 290,293 RB. Spec traders extended their new net long of by another 8,386 contracts in the week of 5/12, taking the position to 59.570 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 228 points to 71.87 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week starts with the Monday Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. May feeder cattle futures and options expire on Thursday. Friday will be the release of the monthly Cattle on Feed report. June serial grain options expire on Friday before the long weekend.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans hit a new high for the move at $12.14 this week before retreating. After breaking out of an ascending triangle and rejecting a test of the previous $11.74 resistance, bulls gave a second attempt to testing the count off the triangle at $12.30. That lasted a few days before the breach above $12 was rejected by the Trump/Xi silence. Futures are back below the upper end of the triangle at the Friday close, with the uptrend support at $11.63. That is near the 40-day moving average at $11.64 ¼ and the 1/3 speedline off the January low at $11.64. Needless to say, the $11.64 area is key support. More immediate support is an uptrend line at $11.71 getting tested at the close. Stochastics are in neutral, with MACD just getting triggered bearish on Friday.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.