Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Williams Speech at 2:15 A.M., NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, COI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Total Household Debt at 10:00 A.M., 52-Week and 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., WASDE Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech and 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
CBOT Fair Value on May Report Day
May WASDE is unlikely to produce fireworks statistically or price-wise. ARC research indicates Dec CBOTT corn at $4.80-$5.00 is properly aligned with current supply & demand, as well as what USDA very probably publishes in its first official new crop balance sheet. Relative to USDA’s Outlook Conference in February its crop carryover supplies are exactly unchanged at 2.13 Bil Bu. USDA today will hike new crop acreage to 95.3 Mil Acres, vs. 94.0 previously, and is expected to leave total 2026/27 consumption unchanged at 16.07 Bil Bu. Assuming USDA’s previously -forecast yield of 183 BPA, this places new crop US corn stocks at 1,950 Mil Bu and stocks/use at 12.1%. There exist a slight amount of premium built into value, but data today is unlikely built overly bullish or bearish – at least for late. Rather, it’s US weather and size of South American crop dominate fundamental fair value in summer.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Ends Firm; Brazilian Cah Market Sags:
CBOT futures ended slightly higher in sympathy with wheat and crude, but enthusiasm for new longs is weak $4.70+, July and $4.95, December. Large South American supplies must be cleared, and Midwest crops must be threatened before any lasting effort occurs. USDA is expected to peg old crop end stocks today at 2.13 Bil Bu and new crop end stocks at 1.93 Bil. Mato Grosso’s safrinha beings in the next week and ramps up over the next 30 days, which caps rallies in the cash market there. The US is 57% planted vs. 52% on average. Progress is forecast to reach 75-76% complete this weekend. Western Plains drought will of course be monitored, but elsewhere moisture will be adequate to abundant on May 25th. ARC doubts any framework of US-Chinese trade will include corn specifically. Dalian corn prices are in seasonal retreat – tops are often scored in China in May – June – and US corn’s discount to Chinese origin is unremarkable. USDA’s May WASDE, and its global production estimate will attract attention. However, the strategy remains to leverage post – WASDE strength with catch – up hedges, ARC fears seasonal bearish trends will not be avoided in the May – Aug period if US drought stays confined to the west.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Street Expects May WASDE to Raise Few Eyebrows. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/12/2026
We kickoff the day with Fed Williams Speech at 2:15 A.M., NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, COI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Total Household Debt at 10:00 A.M., 52-Week and 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., WASDE Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech and 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
CBOT Fair Value on May Report Day
May WASDE is unlikely to produce fireworks statistically or price-wise. ARC research indicates Dec CBOTT corn at $4.80-$5.00 is properly aligned with current supply & demand, as well as what USDA very probably publishes in its first official new crop balance sheet. Relative to USDA’s Outlook Conference in February its crop carryover supplies are exactly unchanged at 2.13 Bil Bu. USDA today will hike new crop acreage to 95.3 Mil Acres, vs. 94.0 previously, and is expected to leave total 2026/27 consumption unchanged at 16.07 Bil Bu. Assuming USDA’s previously -forecast yield of 183 BPA, this places new crop US corn stocks at 1,950 Mil Bu and stocks/use at 12.1%. There exist a slight amount of premium built into value, but data today is unlikely built overly bullish or bearish – at least for late. Rather, it’s US weather and size of South American crop dominate fundamental fair value in summer.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Ends Firm; Brazilian Cah Market Sags:
CBOT futures ended slightly higher in sympathy with wheat and crude, but enthusiasm for new longs is weak $4.70+, July and $4.95, December. Large South American supplies must be cleared, and Midwest crops must be threatened before any lasting effort occurs. USDA is expected to peg old crop end stocks today at 2.13 Bil Bu and new crop end stocks at 1.93 Bil. Mato Grosso’s safrinha beings in the next week and ramps up over the next 30 days, which caps rallies in the cash market there. The US is 57% planted vs. 52% on average. Progress is forecast to reach 75-76% complete this weekend. Western Plains drought will of course be monitored, but elsewhere moisture will be adequate to abundant on May 25th. ARC doubts any framework of US-Chinese trade will include corn specifically. Dalian corn prices are in seasonal retreat – tops are often scored in China in May – June – and US corn’s discount to Chinese origin is unremarkable. USDA’s May WASDE, and its global production estimate will attract attention. However, the strategy remains to leverage post – WASDE strength with catch – up hedges, ARC fears seasonal bearish trends will not be avoided in the May – Aug period if US drought stays confined to the west.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374