Last week’s column was all about strength. Well, the market failed to take my advice and reverted to some weakness this last week, as all but the beans, meal, and cotton saw some sharp losses. As I look back on last weekend, it should have been a sign. After putting together a trampoline for my kids, as any dad would, I had to test it out. It took me back to my childhood and all the years of longing for a trampoline that never came, there was one ‘trick’ that my brain said I could do. That was back when my body could bend in more ways. However, as time has moved on my body cannot do as much as my brain thinks it can. Needless to say, the weakness that has come upon me, led to a sore lower back for much of the week.
Corn corrected lower this week, mainly driven by a pullback in the energies, as July was down 9 cents and December down 5 ½ cents. Crop Progress data showed 38% of the US corn crop planted as of April 26, still running ahead of the 38% average pace. Emergence was at 13%. EIA indicated ethanol production back up 8,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/1, to 1.017 million bpd. Stocks were building in that week by 139,000 barrels to 26.02 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.362 MMT in the week of April 30. That took commitments to 77.06 MMT, 92% of the USDA export projection and behind the 94% average pace. Monthly export data showed 8.03 MMT (316.2 mbu) of corn exported in March, the second largest on record for the month. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/5 tallied managed money at a net long of 343,925 contracts of futures and options in corn. That was a 79,822 contract increase on the week.
The wheat complex corrected lower this week across all three markets, MPLS spring wheat was again the leader, this time to the downside, falling 25 1/2 cents. Both Kansas City and Chicago July contracts were down 18 ¾ cents. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 49% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were up 1% to 31% good/excellent this week, though poor/very poor ratings were up another 2%. The Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was at 286 points, slipping 1 point from last week. Spring wheat was 32% planted. Oklahoma’s annual wheat industry crop tour estimated the winter wheat harvest at 47.799 million bushels, with yield at 23.11 bpa. The annual Kansas Tour will take place this next week. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 30 was 78,772 MT for old crop, with 187,538 MT for new crop. Monthly Census trade data saw a total of 1.821 MMT of wheat shipped in March, up 1.24% from last year and 6% below February. Commitments of Traders showed managed money flipping back to a net short by 20,567 contracts to 9,903 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 5. Spec traders in KC wheat added another 7,245 contracts to their net long position at 37,869 contracts.
Soybeans extended the bounce this week with July up 4 3/4 cents, as November was 6 3/4 cents higher. July soybean meal was up just 40 cents on the week, with May bean oil back down 84 points. Crop Progress from Monday afternoon pegged the US soybean crop at 33% planted by May 3, well above the 23% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 13%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at just 141,940 MT in the week ending on 4/03. Soybean export commitments are at 38.92 MMT, 93% of the USDA export number and 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Census trade date for March showed a total of 3.949 MMT (145.11 mbu) of soybeans shipped. That was up 12.89% from a year ago but down 5.87% from February. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back another 36,335 contracts to their net long of 221,617 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle saw a pullback this week, with June slipping back $4.10 on the week. Cash trade extended the rally, with a push to $256-260 this week across the country. Feeders were falling, with August down $7.95. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 80 cents higher week/week to $374.83. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 1,702 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 133 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, with 44 active in Neuvo Leon, and 4 in the bordering state of Coahuila. The closest case was 79 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread is $3.38. Choice boxes were down 72 cents/cwt on the week to $388.39, as Select was $2.04 (-0.5%) higher at $385.01 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.4% below the week prior and down 3% from the same week last year at 473.8 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.9% on a 9.4% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 141,965 contracts, an increase of 5,374 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. Feeders were adding back 1,636 contracts to their net long to 17,725 contracts.
Hogs extended the losses into this week, as June fell another $2.65. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 39 cents this week at $91.02 as of Mau 6. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 3 cents this week to $97.56/cwt. The picnic, ham and belly were the primals reported lower. Weekly pork production was up 0.3% from last week at 534.3 million lbs, which is 2.2% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is up 0.1% from last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 6,483 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/5, taking the total to 51,082 contracts.
Cotton saw an extension of the gains this week, with July up 54 points. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 21% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 3 points ahead of normal. Export Sales from the week of 4/30 were tallied at 123,349 RB for old crop, with 48,400 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 327,531 RB. Export commitments at 10.82 million RB, which is 96% of USDA’s number and lags the 103% pace from the last 5 years. Census trade data showed March cotton exports (excluding linters) at 1.683 million bales, Up 57.02% from February and down 8.25% from a year ago in March. Spec traders extended their fresh net long of by another 12,829 contracts in the week of 5/5, taking the position to 51,184 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 393 points to 69.59 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday Export Inspections report, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. CPI data will be released on Tuesday, with PPI out on Wednesday. Monthly Crop Production and WASDE data will be out on Tuesday. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal. May grain futures expire on Thursday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. Monthly NOPA data will be out on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has had better weeks, though the Friday action ease things a little. After breaching the triple top and round number resistance at $5, stochastics gave off a sell signal and the market spent the next couple days following crude oil. The correction brought things to the 1/3 speedline at $4.87 ½ on Thursday, which did end up holding a spike. That spike got within ½ cent of the 38.2% Fib retracement at $4.82 1/2 on Thursday before bouncing. MACD is losing bullish momentum in a hurry, though the declining ADX says to watch the bearish stochastics. Breaking the $4.85 (40-day moving average) to $4.87 area would suggest a test of the $4.70s.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Weakness. Ag Marketing Report 05/11/2026
Last week’s column was all about strength. Well, the market failed to take my advice and reverted to some weakness this last week, as all but the beans, meal, and cotton saw some sharp losses. As I look back on last weekend, it should have been a sign. After putting together a trampoline for my kids, as any dad would, I had to test it out. It took me back to my childhood and all the years of longing for a trampoline that never came, there was one ‘trick’ that my brain said I could do. That was back when my body could bend in more ways. However, as time has moved on my body cannot do as much as my brain thinks it can. Needless to say, the weakness that has come upon me, led to a sore lower back for much of the week.
Corn corrected lower this week, mainly driven by a pullback in the energies, as July was down 9 cents and December down 5 ½ cents. Crop Progress data showed 38% of the US corn crop planted as of April 26, still running ahead of the 38% average pace. Emergence was at 13%. EIA indicated ethanol production back up 8,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/1, to 1.017 million bpd. Stocks were building in that week by 139,000 barrels to 26.02 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.362 MMT in the week of April 30. That took commitments to 77.06 MMT, 92% of the USDA export projection and behind the 94% average pace. Monthly export data showed 8.03 MMT (316.2 mbu) of corn exported in March, the second largest on record for the month. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/5 tallied managed money at a net long of 343,925 contracts of futures and options in corn. That was a 79,822 contract increase on the week.
The wheat complex corrected lower this week across all three markets, MPLS spring wheat was again the leader, this time to the downside, falling 25 1/2 cents. Both Kansas City and Chicago July contracts were down 18 ¾ cents. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 49% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were up 1% to 31% good/excellent this week, though poor/very poor ratings were up another 2%. The Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was at 286 points, slipping 1 point from last week. Spring wheat was 32% planted. Oklahoma’s annual wheat industry crop tour estimated the winter wheat harvest at 47.799 million bushels, with yield at 23.11 bpa. The annual Kansas Tour will take place this next week. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 30 was 78,772 MT for old crop, with 187,538 MT for new crop. Monthly Census trade data saw a total of 1.821 MMT of wheat shipped in March, up 1.24% from last year and 6% below February. Commitments of Traders showed managed money flipping back to a net short by 20,567 contracts to 9,903 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 5. Spec traders in KC wheat added another 7,245 contracts to their net long position at 37,869 contracts.
Soybeans extended the bounce this week with July up 4 3/4 cents, as November was 6 3/4 cents higher. July soybean meal was up just 40 cents on the week, with May bean oil back down 84 points. Crop Progress from Monday afternoon pegged the US soybean crop at 33% planted by May 3, well above the 23% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 13%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at just 141,940 MT in the week ending on 4/03. Soybean export commitments are at 38.92 MMT, 93% of the USDA export number and 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Census trade date for March showed a total of 3.949 MMT (145.11 mbu) of soybeans shipped. That was up 12.89% from a year ago but down 5.87% from February. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back another 36,335 contracts to their net long of 221,617 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle saw a pullback this week, with June slipping back $4.10 on the week. Cash trade extended the rally, with a push to $256-260 this week across the country. Feeders were falling, with August down $7.95. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 80 cents higher week/week to $374.83. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 1,702 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 133 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, with 44 active in Neuvo Leon, and 4 in the bordering state of Coahuila. The closest case was 79 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread is $3.38. Choice boxes were down 72 cents/cwt on the week to $388.39, as Select was $2.04 (-0.5%) higher at $385.01 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.4% below the week prior and down 3% from the same week last year at 473.8 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.9% on a 9.4% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 141,965 contracts, an increase of 5,374 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. Feeders were adding back 1,636 contracts to their net long to 17,725 contracts.
Hogs extended the losses into this week, as June fell another $2.65. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 39 cents this week at $91.02 as of Mau 6. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 3 cents this week to $97.56/cwt. The picnic, ham and belly were the primals reported lower. Weekly pork production was up 0.3% from last week at 534.3 million lbs, which is 2.2% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is up 0.1% from last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 6,483 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/5, taking the total to 51,082 contracts.
Cotton saw an extension of the gains this week, with July up 54 points. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 21% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 3 points ahead of normal. Export Sales from the week of 4/30 were tallied at 123,349 RB for old crop, with 48,400 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 327,531 RB. Export commitments at 10.82 million RB, which is 96% of USDA’s number and lags the 103% pace from the last 5 years. Census trade data showed March cotton exports (excluding linters) at 1.683 million bales, Up 57.02% from February and down 8.25% from a year ago in March. Spec traders extended their fresh net long of by another 12,829 contracts in the week of 5/5, taking the position to 51,184 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 393 points to 69.59 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday Export Inspections report, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. CPI data will be released on Tuesday, with PPI out on Wednesday. Monthly Crop Production and WASDE data will be out on Tuesday. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal. May grain futures expire on Thursday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. Monthly NOPA data will be out on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has had better weeks, though the Friday action ease things a little. After breaching the triple top and round number resistance at $5, stochastics gave off a sell signal and the market spent the next couple days following crude oil. The correction brought things to the 1/3 speedline at $4.87 ½ on Thursday, which did end up holding a spike. That spike got within ½ cent of the 38.2% Fib retracement at $4.82 1/2 on Thursday before bouncing. MACD is losing bullish momentum in a hurry, though the declining ADX says to watch the bearish stochastics. Breaking the $4.85 (40-day moving average) to $4.87 area would suggest a test of the $4.70s.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.