Softs Report 05/07/2026

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on news that President Trump has paused Operation Freedom to allow negotiations on a peace deal to be concluded. The two sides are supposed to be close to signing a memorandum of understanding on a deal. Forecasts and reports of just scattered showers in western Cotton areas continue. Conditions remain dry in major Texas growing areas but scattered to isolated showers are still forecast and also forecast for most Delta and Southeast Cotton growing areas. Some improvement in conditions are likely in most parts of the Cotton Belt. Temperatures will be variable. The strait of Hormuz remans closed and input costs are higher. Overseas production in places like India and Brazil are expected to be high, but overall world production is expected by USDA to fall on reduced global planted rea and reduced yields. Trends are up on the daily charts.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 522 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 81.80, 80.50, and 78.70 July, with resistance of 85.40, 86.00 and 86.60 July.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 7
For the week ended Apr 30, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 123.3 48.4 10814.8 10967.5 3098.3 1386.5
pima cotton 11.5 1.3 439.5 406.9 144.6 17.7

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are starting to appear. Chart trends are down on the daily charts. The weather is considered good for production in Brazil and Mexico. Scattered showers are still reported in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 173.00, 161.00, and 157.00 July, with resistance at 193,00 200.00, and 206.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday. New York was lower on selling seen in most commodities due to the Iran war news. The next crop is developing in South America and Asia. There are still ideas of good supplies available on the farm, but getting Coffee from the farm to the market is another problem due to the war with Iran. World production conditions are generally good. Scattered showers are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had drier weather and conditions there are called good.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 266.79 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 867 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 278.00 July, and resistance is at 306.00, 312.00 and 318.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3180, and 3120 July, with resistance at 3570, 3610, and 3650 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower as the Iran war drags on and the strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump has paused Operation Freedom to allow negotiations on a peace deal to be concluded. The two sides are supposed to be close to signing a memorandum of understanding on a dealThe war has increased world petroleum prices and could divert demand from Sugar production to production of ethanol. Trends are up on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive but a rise in production in India and Thailand being offset by the war
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 1310, 1260, and 1200 July and resistance is 1570, 1600, and 1630 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 404.00, 398.00, and 392.00 August, with resistance at 463.00, 468.00, and 474.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher again yesterday on what appeared to be follow through buying. Short term trends are up in both markets. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue. Weak demand has led to a build-up on unsold supplies in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, while the prospect of another global surplus in 2026/27 are real. Cocoa demand has fallen sharply after prices nearly tripled in 2024, prompting chocolate makers to reformulate ingredients and shrink the size of their bars.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 575 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 3700, 3490, and 3380 July, with resistance at 4220, 4370, and 4610 July. Trends in London are up. Support is at 2860, 2700, and 2470 July, with resistance at 3170, 3300, and 3610 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322