This week brought along some gains across much of the ag markets, with exception to the meal and hogs, we saw solid gains across the major markets we follow. Around the middle of the week I took a page out of the markets play book and tried to get myself into some sort of shape, trying to build a little strength of my own. Don’t call me a quitter, but I got through one day before missing the next 2 to let my body recover. Now in baseball, 0.333 is not a horrible stat line. Still, lets hope the markets don’t take my lead on this and continue on with their strength conditioning.
Corn continued its climb this week, as May was up 13 ¼ cents, as new crop December rallied 14 ½ cents. Crop Progress data showed 25% of the US corn crop planted as of April 23, still running ahead of the 19% average pace. Emergence was at 7%. EIA indicated ethanol production slipped another 31,000 barrels per day in the week of 4/24, to 1.009 million bpd. Production normally takes a hit around this time of year due to maintenance. Stocks saw a draw in that week of 1.067 million barrels to 25.881 million barrels. Grain Crush data showed 474.4 million bushels of corn used in ethanol production in March, a 10.2% increase from February and 4.76% larger than last year. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.598 MMT in the week of April 23. That took commitments to 75.7 MMT, 90% of the USDA export projection and behind the 93% average pace. Commitment of Traders data as of 4/28 tallied managed money at a net long of 264,103 contracts of futures and options in corn. That was a 79,697 contract increase on the week.
The wheat complex extended the gains to new highs this week. MPLS spring wheat was again the leader to the upside, up 28 1/2 cents, with Kansas City 23 1/2 cents in the green. Chicago was the trailer, 16 1/4 cents higher on the week as the spread. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 34% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were left at 30% good/excellent this week, though poor/very poor ratings were up 2%. The Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was at 287 points, slipping 3 points from last week. Spring wheat was 19% planted. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 23 was 226,096 MT for old crop, with 156,715 MT for new crop. The NASS Flour Milling report from Friday showed a total of 222.4 million bushels of wheat ground for flour in January through March, a 4.2 mbu drop from the same period last year. Commitments of Traders showed managed money flipping to a net long by 21,381 contracts to 10,664 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of April 28. Spec funds in KC wheat added another 2,615 contracts to their net long position at 30,624 contracts.
Soybeans got a bounce this week with May up 24 cents, as November was 27 cents higher. May soybean meal was down $3.50 on the week, with May bean oil up another 474 points. Crop Progress from Monday afternoon pegged the US soybean crop at 23% planted by April 26, well above the 12% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 8%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at just 258,0663 MT in the week ending on 4/23. Soybean export commitments are at 38.776 MMT, 93% of the USDA export number and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. USDA’s Fats & Oils report from Friday indicated March soybean crush at 227.36 million bushels, 6.15% above February and 9.98% above the same month in 2025. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting 7,603 contracts back from their net long of 185,282 contracts by 4/28.
Live cattle got a rally this week, with June up $7.75 on the day. Cash trade rallied this week, starting off in the $250-252 range and finishing by Wednesday at $256-257. Feeders were in rally mode, up another $10.40 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $4.68 higher week/week to $374.03. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 1,647 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 132 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, with 11 active in Neuvo Leon, and the first case showing up in the bordering state of Coahuila. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread is back to a premium of $2.06. Choice boxes were up $2.11/cwt on the week to $389.11, as Select was $0.98 (0.3%) higher at $387.05 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1% above the week prior and down 1.8% from the same week last year at 480.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.0% on a 9.6% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 136,591 contracts, an increase of 1,796 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. Feeders were trimming 1,676 contracts from their net long to 17,089 contracts.
Hogs slipped back lower this week as June was down 62 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down just 2 cents this week at $91.41 as of April 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $2.02 (2.0%) this week to $97.59/cwt. The butt and rib primals were the only reported higher. Weekly pork production was down 0.9% from last week at 534.3 million lbs, which is 0.4% below the same week last year. Production so far this year is down slightly below last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. Friday saw some pressure as USDA’s APHIS confirmed cases of pseudorabies in a small commercial hog herd in IA on Thursday, the first case detected since 2004. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 8,026 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 4/28, taking the total to 57,565 contracts.
Cotton bulls put things back in rally mode this week, as July was up 483 points, with December 398 points higher. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 16% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 3 points ahead of normal. Export Sales from the week of 4/16 were tallied at 162,879 RB for old crop, with 105,747 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 384,608 RB. Export commitments at 10.69 million RB, which is 95% of USDA’s number and lags the 102% pace from the last 5 years. Spec traders extended their fresh net long of by another 3,891 contracts in the week of 4/28, taking the position to 38,355 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 40 points to 65.66 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. Census trade data will be out on Tuesday morning, showing March exports. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal, with May cotton futures expiring on Wednesday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning.
Tech Talk: November Soybean
Soybeans are looking to break out to the upside after spending the last month and a half in an ascending triangle formation. The break to the $1180s on Friday pushed through the $11.74 ¼ high from March. Holding the break would give a count of $12.30 ¼. Futures are also breaking out of a Bollinger band pinch, which suggests a big move coming, Stochastics are stuck in neutral, with MACD flipping back bullish, but on a low ADX. Going back from the LOC high to low, there is a 78.6% Fib retracement resistance at $11.85 ¾. Round number resistance is $12, with the $12.41 contract high lateral resistance if we get the breakout to the upside. We have the product value fuel to get there with bean oil screeching higher. Weather has widely allowed for the crop to get in the ground, though futures have not acted on that as pressure. Of course, the meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi in the middle of the month will likely give the market some directionality and fuel. To the downside, support comes from the 40-day moving average at $11.53 ½, with an uptrend support at $11.53.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Strength. Ag Marketing Report 05/04/2026
This week brought along some gains across much of the ag markets, with exception to the meal and hogs, we saw solid gains across the major markets we follow. Around the middle of the week I took a page out of the markets play book and tried to get myself into some sort of shape, trying to build a little strength of my own. Don’t call me a quitter, but I got through one day before missing the next 2 to let my body recover. Now in baseball, 0.333 is not a horrible stat line. Still, lets hope the markets don’t take my lead on this and continue on with their strength conditioning.
Corn continued its climb this week, as May was up 13 ¼ cents, as new crop December rallied 14 ½ cents. Crop Progress data showed 25% of the US corn crop planted as of April 23, still running ahead of the 19% average pace. Emergence was at 7%. EIA indicated ethanol production slipped another 31,000 barrels per day in the week of 4/24, to 1.009 million bpd. Production normally takes a hit around this time of year due to maintenance. Stocks saw a draw in that week of 1.067 million barrels to 25.881 million barrels. Grain Crush data showed 474.4 million bushels of corn used in ethanol production in March, a 10.2% increase from February and 4.76% larger than last year. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.598 MMT in the week of April 23. That took commitments to 75.7 MMT, 90% of the USDA export projection and behind the 93% average pace. Commitment of Traders data as of 4/28 tallied managed money at a net long of 264,103 contracts of futures and options in corn. That was a 79,697 contract increase on the week.
The wheat complex extended the gains to new highs this week. MPLS spring wheat was again the leader to the upside, up 28 1/2 cents, with Kansas City 23 1/2 cents in the green. Chicago was the trailer, 16 1/4 cents higher on the week as the spread. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 34% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were left at 30% good/excellent this week, though poor/very poor ratings were up 2%. The Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was at 287 points, slipping 3 points from last week. Spring wheat was 19% planted. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 23 was 226,096 MT for old crop, with 156,715 MT for new crop. The NASS Flour Milling report from Friday showed a total of 222.4 million bushels of wheat ground for flour in January through March, a 4.2 mbu drop from the same period last year. Commitments of Traders showed managed money flipping to a net long by 21,381 contracts to 10,664 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of April 28. Spec funds in KC wheat added another 2,615 contracts to their net long position at 30,624 contracts.
Soybeans got a bounce this week with May up 24 cents, as November was 27 cents higher. May soybean meal was down $3.50 on the week, with May bean oil up another 474 points. Crop Progress from Monday afternoon pegged the US soybean crop at 23% planted by April 26, well above the 12% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 8%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at just 258,0663 MT in the week ending on 4/23. Soybean export commitments are at 38.776 MMT, 93% of the USDA export number and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. USDA’s Fats & Oils report from Friday indicated March soybean crush at 227.36 million bushels, 6.15% above February and 9.98% above the same month in 2025. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting 7,603 contracts back from their net long of 185,282 contracts by 4/28.
Live cattle got a rally this week, with June up $7.75 on the day. Cash trade rallied this week, starting off in the $250-252 range and finishing by Wednesday at $256-257. Feeders were in rally mode, up another $10.40 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $4.68 higher week/week to $374.03. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 1,647 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 132 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, with 11 active in Neuvo Leon, and the first case showing up in the bordering state of Coahuila. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread is back to a premium of $2.06. Choice boxes were up $2.11/cwt on the week to $389.11, as Select was $0.98 (0.3%) higher at $387.05 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1% above the week prior and down 1.8% from the same week last year at 480.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.0% on a 9.6% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 136,591 contracts, an increase of 1,796 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. Feeders were trimming 1,676 contracts from their net long to 17,089 contracts.
Hogs slipped back lower this week as June was down 62 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down just 2 cents this week at $91.41 as of April 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $2.02 (2.0%) this week to $97.59/cwt. The butt and rib primals were the only reported higher. Weekly pork production was down 0.9% from last week at 534.3 million lbs, which is 0.4% below the same week last year. Production so far this year is down slightly below last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. Friday saw some pressure as USDA’s APHIS confirmed cases of pseudorabies in a small commercial hog herd in IA on Thursday, the first case detected since 2004. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 8,026 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 4/28, taking the total to 57,565 contracts.
Cotton bulls put things back in rally mode this week, as July was up 483 points, with December 398 points higher. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 16% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 3 points ahead of normal. Export Sales from the week of 4/16 were tallied at 162,879 RB for old crop, with 105,747 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 384,608 RB. Export commitments at 10.69 million RB, which is 95% of USDA’s number and lags the 102% pace from the last 5 years. Spec traders extended their fresh net long of by another 3,891 contracts in the week of 4/28, taking the position to 38,355 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 40 points to 65.66 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. Census trade data will be out on Tuesday morning, showing March exports. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal, with May cotton futures expiring on Wednesday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning.
Tech Talk: November Soybean
Soybeans are looking to break out to the upside after spending the last month and a half in an ascending triangle formation. The break to the $1180s on Friday pushed through the $11.74 ¼ high from March. Holding the break would give a count of $12.30 ¼. Futures are also breaking out of a Bollinger band pinch, which suggests a big move coming, Stochastics are stuck in neutral, with MACD flipping back bullish, but on a low ADX. Going back from the LOC high to low, there is a 78.6% Fib retracement resistance at $11.85 ¾. Round number resistance is $12, with the $12.41 contract high lateral resistance if we get the breakout to the upside. We have the product value fuel to get there with bean oil screeching higher. Weather has widely allowed for the crop to get in the ground, though futures have not acted on that as pressure. Of course, the meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi in the middle of the month will likely give the market some directionality and fuel. To the downside, support comes from the 40-day moving average at $11.53 ½, with an uptrend support at $11.53.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.