Late Breaking. The Energy Report 04/24/2026

Oil sold off hard after a report that Iran’s Foreign Minister is expected in Islamabad tonight, according to a Pakistan government source. Iran also resumed commercial air flights, leading to speculation that Tehran is ready to deal. On top of that, the Trump administration extended the Jones Act waiver.

Locked and Loaded

Get locked! Get loaded! Get ready for another wild weekend in petroleum.

Oil prices spiked yesterday and into Friday as the Iran ceasefire looks shaky again — despite the recent Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension. This comes after President Trump said he is “locked and loaded” following his extension of the ceasefire at Pakistan’s request, while keeping the U.S. blockade in place and military options open.

The President noted that time is not on Iran’s side — and he’s right. Iran is losing roughly $500 million per day in revenue, and the clock is ticking.

Oil was also boosted by reports that Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israel is awaiting a U.S. “green light” to resume strikes on Iran, potentially targeting energy sites with the goal of setting Iran back significantly.

Adding to the tension, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — one of the key negotiators with the U.S. — has reportedly stepped down from the team amid heavy IRGC pressure and internal rifts. Tehran has not confirmed the story, but Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Araghchi all posted nearly identical “unity” messages.

The real question: Are oil prices truly locked and loaded to respond to what could be the greatest oil supply loss in history?

Even with the impressive rally, many loyal Energy Report readers are frustrated that prices are not substantially higher. The high was made the first weekend of Operation Epic Fury, and since then prices have trended lower despite massive volatility.

Some market participants point to suspiciously well-timed large trades in oil futures (one reportedly ~$500 million and another near $950 million) right before major Trump administration announcements, fueling claims of manipulation to keep prices in check.

The bull case remains powerful: With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the market is losing 10–14 million barrels per day. Analysts warn of potential diesel and jet fuel shortages in places like California. Some firms are calling for dramatically higher prices:

Rystad Energy: Brent could hit $135 if disruption lasts four months

Macquarie: Up to $200 in a worst-case prolonged scenario

Goldman Sachs estimated 14.5 million bpd (57% of pre-war Gulf supply) offline in April, mostly precautionary

However, the market is currently pricing in a relatively swift resolution. Oil is trickling back through creative rerouting and exemptions. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline is running full tilt at 7 million bpd to Yanbu, and the UAE is pushing 1.8 million bpd via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. U.S. shale, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and a resurgent Venezuela are all adding barrels.

Refined Product Update

Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since late February. U.S. on-highway diesel hit a national average of roughly $5.40–$5.64/gal in early-to-mid April.

Good news today: Diesel prices are pulling back. The national average now sits at $5.465, down 6 cents from yesterday and lower than last week. Regular gasoline, however, ticked higher to $4.059.

The 3-2-1 crack spread remains extremely strong at $53–$57/barrel.

Natural Gas

Mother Nature delivered a triple-digit EIA storage build that slammed natural gas futures.

Yesterday’s EIA report showed a massive +103 Bcf injection (vs 96 Bcf expected). Working gas is now at 2,063 Bcf, 7% above last year and 7% above the five-year average.

It’s shoulder season. Production is strong, LNG exports steady, and Fox Weather is calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the eastern and southern U.S. over the next 7–14 days. That keeps the near-term outlook bearish on weather-driven demand.