Grains Report 04/10/2026

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2025-26 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 2,127.0 2,143 2,052-2,267 2,127
Soybeans 350.0 348 315- 375 350
Wheat 938.0 921 890- 941 931
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2025-26
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 294.8 293.2 291.2-295.0 292.8
Soybeans 124.8 125.5 124.5-126.0 125.3
Wheat 283.1 277.3 276.1-278.0 277.0
***
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
2025-26 Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 132.0 132.5 132.0-135.7 132.0
Soybeans 180.0 179.8 178.0-181.0 180.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
2025-26 Estimate Average Range USDA Mar.
Corn 52.0 52.2 52.0-53.0 52.0
Soybeans 48.0 48.1 47.0-48.5 48.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Apr 9
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
25/26 24/25 23/24 : 25/26 24/25 23/24 : 25/26 24/25 23/24
Soybeans 350.0 325.0 342.0 :187.17 184.21 177.76 : 427.41 428.15 396.40
Brazil na na na :115.00 103.14 104.17 : 180.00 172.50 154.50
Argentina na na na : 8.25 7.87 5.11 : 48.00 51.11 48.21
China na na na : 0.10 0.07 0.07 : 20.90 20.65 20.84
Soyoil 1,842 1,747 1,551 : 13.90 15.21 11.81 : 71.71 70.09 64.01
Corn 2,127 1,551 1,763 :207.29 187.15 192.65 : 1,301 1,231 1,231
China na na na : 0.02 0.00 0.00 : 301.24 294.92 288.84
Argentina na na na : 37.00 29.07 36.26 : 52.00 50.00 51.60
S.Africa na na na : 2.50 1.95 2.27 : 17.30 17.27 13.43
Cotton 4.40 4.00 3.15 : 43.72 42.40 44.06 : 121.87 119.34 112.23
All Wheat 938 855 696 :221.88 210.46 222.23 : 844.15 799.33 791.53
China na na na : 1.00 1.02 1.01 : 140.07 140.10 136.59
European
Union na na na : 30.50 27.92 38.00 : 145.11 121.06 135.38
Canada na na na : 29.00 29.34 25.44 : 39.96 35.94 33.41
Argentina na na na : 19.50 13.31 8.23 : 27.92 18.51 15.85
Australia na na na : 26.50 23.65 19.84 : 36.00 34.11 25.96
Russia na na na : 44.50 43.00 55.50 : 90.30 81.60 91.50
Ukraine na na na : 12.50 15.75 18.58 : 24.00 23.40 23.00
Sorghum 37.0 40.0 33.0 : na na na : na na na
Barley 64.0 69.0 78.0 : na na na : na na na
Oats 30.0 28.0 36.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 55.3 53.9 39.8 : 61.45 61.49 56.75 : 541.35 541.57 523.93

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower in both markets again yesterday on the USDA WASDE reports and on improving weather forecasts for the western Great Plains. The forecasts call for some rain in the next week or so. WASDE showed that ending stocks were higher mostly due tzo increased imports but also a small cut to seed demand. Conditions are too dry in much of the US Great Plains and too wet in the US Midwest and in western Europe for best production and quality potential. Expected rain systems this week in the Great Plains could bring relief to crops produced there. The weather is now featuring precipitation is forecast for parts of the Midwest along with variable temperatures.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 564, 558, and 552 May, with resistance at 612, 616, and 625 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 580, 567, and 560 May, with resistance at 625, 638, and 648 May. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed lower yesterday and trends are turning down on the daily and weekly charts. The market failed at resistance on the weekly charts. Trends are still up on the daily charts after a big war related rally with the war with Iran and the political problems with China not having much effect on prices. Traders anticipate less production this year in the US and around the world due to low prices. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Demand remains moderate for US Rice.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1090, 1063, and 1055 May and resistance is at 1145, 1152, and 1166 May.

RICE: The U.S. rice outlook for 2025/26 projects steady supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Domestic use and residual is lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 169.0 million, all long-grain, primarily on the latest NASS Rice Stocks report which indicated less December-February disappearance than previously estimated. All rice exports are reduced by 3.0 million cwt to 82.0 million, also all long-grain, on continued slow sales and shipments to Western Hemisphere markets. Ending stocks are increased by 5.0 million cwt to 55.3 million, the highest since 1985/86. The 2025/26 season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice stays at $12.10 per cwt with offsetting changes. The long-grain SAFP is lowered by $0.10 per cwt to $10.40, while the medium- and short-grain SAFP for Other States is raised $0.50 per cwt to $14.70.
This month’s global rice forecast for 2025/26 is for higher supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are up by 0.4 million tons to 732.9 million, largely due to greater production in Thailand. Consumption is lowered by 0.4 million tons to 540.6 million, reflecting changes in several countries. Trade falls by 0.5 million tons to 61.5 million, mainly because of a reduction for Pakistan on its slow export pace. As a result of these changes, global ending stocks are raised 0.8 million tons to 192.3 million.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday as the weather is good in the US and early planting is expected. Early planting traditionally leads to large yields. The WASDE reports made no changes to Corn and was considered neutral for prices. There are still excessive supplies as seen in the recent USDA reports after prices were trending higher on strong demand. Temperatures in the Midwest should be generally warm for the next week. Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there. Oats were higher and trends are mixed on the daily charts and mixed to on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: unknown destinations bought 125,640 tons if US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 441, 438, and 435 May, and resistance is at 460, 470, and 474 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 331, 322, and 312 May, and resistance is at 353, 360, and 380 May

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the weather for planting is good in the US. The WASDE report increased the domestic crush by 35 million bushels but cut exports by the same amount to leave ending stocks unchanged. The US government apparently has no idea on how to manage risks in the Hormuz or how to end the war. Big South American crops are being harvested, and ideas are that Chinese buying could be interrupted due to the Iran war and new import rules imposed by China. South American sources said that the Brazil crops are now more than 65% harvested. The tariff wars between the US and other countries add to cost of US Soybeans. Temperatures will be generally warm in the Midwest for the next week.
Overnight News: Italy bought 100,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1144 1137, and 1127 May, and resistance is at 1180, 1216, and 1234 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 May, and resistance is at 319.00, 323.00,and 335.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 6420, 6250, and 6280 May, with resistance at 6960, 7020, and 7080 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures was lower today as the Iran war keep bio fuels demand hopes active but mixed and Crude Oil futures and other petroleum markets weaker. Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now due to the war. Canola was higher yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 701.00, 682.00, and 669.00 May, with resistance at 736.00, 743.00, and 758.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4540, 4450, and 4350 July, with resistance at 4740, 4800, and 4870 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1185.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 1185.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1185.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1187.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1180.00 07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1190.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 1190.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1190.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1192.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1185.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1160.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1090.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,580.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 509.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9675)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322