Growing up, music was a large part of my childhood. I guess, having access to someone’s thoughts other than my own made time in the tractor, grain truck, or on the mower made the time seem to go faster. Anyway, I can travel for hours with nothing but my brain driving the conversation with itself. I guess times have changed a bit. Still, when it comes to music, I always revert back to what I was raised on, 90’s country. One of the songs from my childhood that correlates with this week’s grain market is Mark Chesnutt’s “Going Through the Big D.” It may not be a divorce as the song suggests, nor is it Dallas, however, the market Deviated somewhat from the crude oil this week. Corn and wheat were weaker, with beans up just a nickel, as the energy leader was up 11.94%. Of course, the commodities themselves have their own fundamentals. Corn is looking at a 2 bbu carryout and can’t ration out too much demand, with beans needing to get down to the Brazilian level to get competitive on the export front. Wheat may have a little of a friendlier story from a new crop standpoint with the drier Plains weather. The crude spillover can play a role, and if it continues to rally, it will likely pull the grains along, but with a long weekend the money flow was leaking a bit this week.
Corn was under pressure this week despite gains in the outside markets, as May slipped 9 ¾ cents and December dropped 9 cents. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showed 95.338 million acres of corn expected to be planted this spring, a 3.45 million acre drop from a year ago if realized. Grain Stocks data was tallied at 9.024 billion bushels for March 1, an increase of 887 mbu from a year ago. EIA showed ethanol production back down 41,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/27, to 1.075 million bpd. Stocks saw a draw in that week of 1.179 million barrels to 25.991 million barrels. Grain Crushing data showed February corn grind at 424.8 million bushels, a 0.73% jump from last year but down 8% from January. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.15 MMT in the week of March 26. Monthly export data from Census showed 6.77 MMT of corn exported in February, a record for the month and 2.44% above January. Commitment of Traders data as of 3/31 tallied managed money at a net long of 267,974 contracts of futures and options. That was a 16,574 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex slipped back lower this week, closing with losses across the three markets. Kansas Cirt was the leader, down 17 cents in the May contract. MPLS spring wheat was 1 ½ lower cents since the previous Friday. Chicago was 6 ¾ cents in the red on the week. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 40% good/excellent, or 316 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 46% gd/ex (328) in the week prior. March Intentions data showed all wheat acres at 43.775 million acres, 1.553 million below last year. Winter wheat acres were 32.41 million acres, down 743,000 vs. 2025, with spring wheat down 485,000 from a year ago at 9.415 million acres. Grain Stocks data was showed wheat at 1.3 bbu for wheat as of March 1, a 63 mbu increase from a year ago. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 26 was just 23,521 MT for old crop, with 272,839 MT for new crop. Census data showed a total of 1.94 MMT of wheat shipped in February, a 6-year high for the month and 26.69% above January. Commitments of Traders showed managed money flipping from net short to net long 8,641 contracts in CBT wheat as of March 31, a 10,875 contract position flip for that week. Spec funds in KC wheat added 11,812 contracts to their net long position at 21,517 contracts.
Soybeans were back and forth this week, as May was up 4 ¼ cents by the end of it. New crop November was up a dime. May soybean meal slipped just 10 cents/ton, as bean oil was up 153 points. The annual Prospective Plantings report showed a total of 84.7 million acres of soybeans intended for this spring, a 3.485 million acre swing higher from a year ago if producers stick with the plans. March 1 soybean stocks came in at 2.105 billion bushels in the quarterly Grain Stocks report, which was up 194 mbu from a year ago. USDA’s Fats & Oils report from NASS showed 214.2 million bushels of soybeans crushed during February, up 12.99% vs. last year but down 6.04% from January. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 353,259 MT in the week ending on 3/26. Census trade data for February showed 4.195 MMT of soybeans shipped, up 34.6% from a year ago but down 27.93% from January. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back 15,503 contracts to their net long of 213,407 contracts by 3/31. Managed money in bean oil as a record net long at 135,809 contracts.
Live cattle pushed higher for much of the week with April closing with a $7.70 gain since last Friday. Cash trade was in rally mode this week, settling in a $245-246 across the country, up $10 from last week. Feeders extended the rally to this week, as April was up $11.45. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $3.83 higher week/week to $366.81. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, narrowing the Chc/Sel spread to $1.59. Choice boxes were down $5.19/cwt (1.3%) on the week to $387.78, as Select was $3.68 (0.9%) lower at $386.19 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 2.2% above the week prior and down 6.4% from the same week last year at 480.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.6% on a 10.1% drop in slaughter. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed beef exports at 183.6 million pounds in February, a 10-year low for the month and 6% below January. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 123,742 contracts, an increase of 12,833 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday.
Hogs were weaker on the short week, as nearby June slipped back $1.65, matching the close from two weeks ago. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $1.29 this week at $90.17 as of April 1. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back up $2.39 (2.5%) this week to $98.95/cwt. The long primal was the only reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 4.7% from last week at 523.0 million lbs, which is 4.0% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.4% on a 1.2% drop in slaughter. Monthly trade data from Census converted to a carcass basis showed pork exports at 574.24 million lbs. That was the 4th largest on record for February and down 2.7% from January. CFTC data showed managed money slashing another 7,275 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/31, taking the total to 94,208 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the gains this week, with May up 146 points. December was 96 points higher on the week. March Prospective Plantings data from Tuesday showed cotton acres at 9.64 million acres, a 357,000 acre increase from a year ago. Export Sales from the week of 3/26 were tallied at 371,475 RB for old crop, with 117,271 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 356,663 RB. Census trade data showed February cotton exports (excluding linters) at 1.072 million bales, a 10-year low for the month, buy still 15.51% above January. Spec traders slashed anther 21,222 contracts from their net short position in the week of March 31, taking the total to 12,226 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 252 points to 56.99 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. The first NASS Crop Progress report of the season will be out that afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for April live cattle. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning, with the monthly WASDE report out as well. Monthly CPI data will be released on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a decent week as the Tuesday action was the biggest mover. That 84.7 million acre number from NASS gave us bullish engulfing line, with limited follow through. The MACD sell signal from a couple weeks ago has largely been ignored, despite a high ADX at the time. The bearish momentum is dying, with stochastics in neutral and suggesting sideways trade. After the break in mid-March, the 1/3 speedline off the rally since the start of the year failed. Futures continue to walk up the low side at $11.60 ½, which confirms the break, getting back above it would reject it, though we have yet to do so. The 2/3 is clear down at $11.08. The 18-day moving average at $11.48 1/2 has been porous, loosely holding after a break. Lateral resistance is the March high at $11.74 ¼, with a 78.6% Fib retracement off the LOC high at $11.85 ¾. If we get pressure, the 38.2% Fib retracement support would be at $11.28 ¾, with the 40-day moving average at $11.33.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
“Goin’ Through the Big D”. Ag Marketing Report 04/06/2026
Growing up, music was a large part of my childhood. I guess, having access to someone’s thoughts other than my own made time in the tractor, grain truck, or on the mower made the time seem to go faster. Anyway, I can travel for hours with nothing but my brain driving the conversation with itself. I guess times have changed a bit. Still, when it comes to music, I always revert back to what I was raised on, 90’s country. One of the songs from my childhood that correlates with this week’s grain market is Mark Chesnutt’s “Going Through the Big D.” It may not be a divorce as the song suggests, nor is it Dallas, however, the market Deviated somewhat from the crude oil this week. Corn and wheat were weaker, with beans up just a nickel, as the energy leader was up 11.94%. Of course, the commodities themselves have their own fundamentals. Corn is looking at a 2 bbu carryout and can’t ration out too much demand, with beans needing to get down to the Brazilian level to get competitive on the export front. Wheat may have a little of a friendlier story from a new crop standpoint with the drier Plains weather. The crude spillover can play a role, and if it continues to rally, it will likely pull the grains along, but with a long weekend the money flow was leaking a bit this week.
Corn was under pressure this week despite gains in the outside markets, as May slipped 9 ¾ cents and December dropped 9 cents. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showed 95.338 million acres of corn expected to be planted this spring, a 3.45 million acre drop from a year ago if realized. Grain Stocks data was tallied at 9.024 billion bushels for March 1, an increase of 887 mbu from a year ago. EIA showed ethanol production back down 41,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/27, to 1.075 million bpd. Stocks saw a draw in that week of 1.179 million barrels to 25.991 million barrels. Grain Crushing data showed February corn grind at 424.8 million bushels, a 0.73% jump from last year but down 8% from January. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.15 MMT in the week of March 26. Monthly export data from Census showed 6.77 MMT of corn exported in February, a record for the month and 2.44% above January. Commitment of Traders data as of 3/31 tallied managed money at a net long of 267,974 contracts of futures and options. That was a 16,574 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex slipped back lower this week, closing with losses across the three markets. Kansas Cirt was the leader, down 17 cents in the May contract. MPLS spring wheat was 1 ½ lower cents since the previous Friday. Chicago was 6 ¾ cents in the red on the week. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 40% good/excellent, or 316 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 46% gd/ex (328) in the week prior. March Intentions data showed all wheat acres at 43.775 million acres, 1.553 million below last year. Winter wheat acres were 32.41 million acres, down 743,000 vs. 2025, with spring wheat down 485,000 from a year ago at 9.415 million acres. Grain Stocks data was showed wheat at 1.3 bbu for wheat as of March 1, a 63 mbu increase from a year ago. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 26 was just 23,521 MT for old crop, with 272,839 MT for new crop. Census data showed a total of 1.94 MMT of wheat shipped in February, a 6-year high for the month and 26.69% above January. Commitments of Traders showed managed money flipping from net short to net long 8,641 contracts in CBT wheat as of March 31, a 10,875 contract position flip for that week. Spec funds in KC wheat added 11,812 contracts to their net long position at 21,517 contracts.
Soybeans were back and forth this week, as May was up 4 ¼ cents by the end of it. New crop November was up a dime. May soybean meal slipped just 10 cents/ton, as bean oil was up 153 points. The annual Prospective Plantings report showed a total of 84.7 million acres of soybeans intended for this spring, a 3.485 million acre swing higher from a year ago if producers stick with the plans. March 1 soybean stocks came in at 2.105 billion bushels in the quarterly Grain Stocks report, which was up 194 mbu from a year ago. USDA’s Fats & Oils report from NASS showed 214.2 million bushels of soybeans crushed during February, up 12.99% vs. last year but down 6.04% from January. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 353,259 MT in the week ending on 3/26. Census trade data for February showed 4.195 MMT of soybeans shipped, up 34.6% from a year ago but down 27.93% from January. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back 15,503 contracts to their net long of 213,407 contracts by 3/31. Managed money in bean oil as a record net long at 135,809 contracts.
Live cattle pushed higher for much of the week with April closing with a $7.70 gain since last Friday. Cash trade was in rally mode this week, settling in a $245-246 across the country, up $10 from last week. Feeders extended the rally to this week, as April was up $11.45. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $3.83 higher week/week to $366.81. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, narrowing the Chc/Sel spread to $1.59. Choice boxes were down $5.19/cwt (1.3%) on the week to $387.78, as Select was $3.68 (0.9%) lower at $386.19 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 2.2% above the week prior and down 6.4% from the same week last year at 480.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.6% on a 10.1% drop in slaughter. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed beef exports at 183.6 million pounds in February, a 10-year low for the month and 6% below January. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 123,742 contracts, an increase of 12,833 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday.
Hogs were weaker on the short week, as nearby June slipped back $1.65, matching the close from two weeks ago. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $1.29 this week at $90.17 as of April 1. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back up $2.39 (2.5%) this week to $98.95/cwt. The long primal was the only reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 4.7% from last week at 523.0 million lbs, which is 4.0% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.4% on a 1.2% drop in slaughter. Monthly trade data from Census converted to a carcass basis showed pork exports at 574.24 million lbs. That was the 4th largest on record for February and down 2.7% from January. CFTC data showed managed money slashing another 7,275 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/31, taking the total to 94,208 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the gains this week, with May up 146 points. December was 96 points higher on the week. March Prospective Plantings data from Tuesday showed cotton acres at 9.64 million acres, a 357,000 acre increase from a year ago. Export Sales from the week of 3/26 were tallied at 371,475 RB for old crop, with 117,271 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 356,663 RB. Census trade data showed February cotton exports (excluding linters) at 1.072 million bales, a 10-year low for the month, buy still 15.51% above January. Spec traders slashed anther 21,222 contracts from their net short position in the week of March 31, taking the total to 12,226 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 252 points to 56.99 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. The first NASS Crop Progress report of the season will be out that afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for April live cattle. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning, with the monthly WASDE report out as well. Monthly CPI data will be released on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a decent week as the Tuesday action was the biggest mover. That 84.7 million acre number from NASS gave us bullish engulfing line, with limited follow through. The MACD sell signal from a couple weeks ago has largely been ignored, despite a high ADX at the time. The bearish momentum is dying, with stochastics in neutral and suggesting sideways trade. After the break in mid-March, the 1/3 speedline off the rally since the start of the year failed. Futures continue to walk up the low side at $11.60 ½, which confirms the break, getting back above it would reject it, though we have yet to do so. The 2/3 is clear down at $11.08. The 18-day moving average at $11.48 1/2 has been porous, loosely holding after a break. Lateral resistance is the March high at $11.74 ¼, with a 78.6% Fib retracement off the LOC high at $11.85 ¾. If we get pressure, the 38.2% Fib retracement support would be at $11.28 ¾, with the 40-day moving average at $11.33.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.