Thursday night was a rough one from a Husker fan perspective. After making it to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA tournament, Nebraska was matched up with Iowa. If you’re not familiar, it’s a rival and the worst scenario to end a season. I would have rather lost to a top seeded Florida than our biggest rival to end the season. Of course, as it was, the worst of the scenarios came true. To those that are Iowa fans, congrats. Still, being a fan of a team that just locked in their first two wins of an NCAA tournament in history, the there was some encouragement for the season, though it ended in a disappointing fashion. Looking at the ag markets, we saw some pressure late this week. After seeing some strength ahead of a ag celebration at the White House, the market sold the facts into the weekend. That doesn’t change the fact that we are still looking at elevated prices following a rally over the last month. As with end to the Huskers season, a disappointing end to an encouraging run.
Corn faded lower again this Friday, to push the weekly move to 3 1/2 cents lower in May, as December was down just 1/2 cent. EIA showed ethanol production back up 23,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/20, to 1.116 million bpd. Stocks saw a build of another 763,000 barrels to 27.17 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.22 MMT in the week of March 19. Export commitments are now 68.88 MMT, which is 82% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 86% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 24 indicated managed money adding another 55,744 contracts of futures and options to the spec fund net long position. That took the net long position to 384,548 contracts.
The wheat complex held up this week, closing with gains across the three markets. Kansas Cirt was the leader, up 26 ½ cents in the May contract. MPLS spring wheat was up 20 ¼ cents since last Friday. Chicago was up 9 ¾ cents on the week. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 46% good/excellent, or 328 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 52% gd/ex (339) in the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 12 was 397,245 MT. That takes export commitments to 24.25 MMT, which is 99% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 100% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders showed managed money trimming another 10,468 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 2,234 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat cut back 1,021 contracts from their new net long position to 9,705 contracts.
Soybeans were higher for much of the week but faded back late to close with May down 2 cents from last Friday. The nearby new crop spread narrowed by a nickel, with November up 3 cents. May soybean meal was the pressure factor, down $12.70/ton, as bean oil was up 190 points. EPA released their finalized RVOs for 2026 on Friday, with bio-mass based diesel set at 8.86 billion RINS (not gallons), which exceeded the 7.12 billion RINs previously proposed. The small refinery exemption reallocation takes that to 9.07 billion RINS for 2026. They also announced that in 2028, foreign fuel and feedstocks will only receive 50% of the RIN value. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at a marketing year low of 668,901 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on 3/19. Commitments are now 37.26 MMT, which is 87% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 95% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back another 4,093 contracts from their net long of 197,904 contracts by 3/24.
Live cattle saw some late week gains, with contracts up $4.45 since last Friday. Cash trade was steady this week, with trade at $234-235. Feeders were in rally mode late, as April was up $10.27 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was just 92 cents higher week/week to $362.98. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $3.10. Choice boxes were down $7.14/cwt (1.8%) on the week to $392.97, as Select was $3.07 (0.4%) lower at $389.87 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 3.7% above the week prior and down 12.1% from the same week last year at 467.6 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.8% on a 10.2% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data was out on Tuesday afternoon, with 413.34 million lbs of beef stocks on February 28, the lowest since 2014. Workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, CO, are expected to continue their strike into next week. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 110,909 contracts, an increase of 4,294 contracts on the week ending March 24.
Hogs were mixed this week, as nearby April was down 50 cents, with June up $1.65. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $0.58 this week at $91.46 as of March 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $2.64 (2.7%) this week to $96.56/cwt. The picnic and belly primals led the way to the downside. Weekly pork production was up 1.3% from last week at 551.1 million lbs, which is 2.5% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.1% on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. Pork stocks on Thursday were reported at 403.503 million lbs at the end of February, the lowest for the months since 1997.Hogs and Pigs data showed all hog inventory up 0.44% from a year ago at 74.321 million head. Market hogs were up 0.61% at 68.429 million head, with and hogs kept for breeding down 1.47% to 5.892 million head. CFTC data showed managed money slashing 15,070 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/24, taking the total to 101,483 contracts.
Cotton futures saw gains this week, with May up 215 points. December was 206 points higher this week. Export Sales from the week of 3/12 were tallied at 202,444 RB for old crop, with 227,017 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 400,552 RB. Total commitments are now 9.556 million RB, which is 85% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 98% average pace. Spec traders cut back their net short position by 6,757 contracts in in the week of 3/24, taking the total to 33,448 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 25 points to 54.47 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. Tuesday will likely be a volatile one, with the Prospective Plantings and March Grain Stocks report out from NASS. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. We will also get the monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports from NASS that afternoon. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning per normal, with Thursday also the expiration of April live cattle options. The market will be off on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has remained in the uptrend, though recent action has gotten choppy. There is a 78.6% Fib retracement resistance off the LOC high to low at $4.96 ¾, which has largely held. The spike to $4.98 ½ has become a double top, which would be a triple top on another test, which (almost) never hold. MACD is looking to flip bearish after losing momentum. Friday was an outside day lower, not bullish by any means but technically inert. Supper comes via the 18-day moving average at $4.86 ¼, with the parabolic SAR at $4.84. There is a rising regression channel with support at $4.83 after widening out. The 38.2% Fib retracement support (not pictured) off the recent high is at $4.78 and held last week. Any break below the $4.83-4.85 level, would likely suggest a broader break to the downside.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Disappointing Encouragement. Ag Marketing Report 03/30/2026
Thursday night was a rough one from a Husker fan perspective. After making it to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA tournament, Nebraska was matched up with Iowa. If you’re not familiar, it’s a rival and the worst scenario to end a season. I would have rather lost to a top seeded Florida than our biggest rival to end the season. Of course, as it was, the worst of the scenarios came true. To those that are Iowa fans, congrats. Still, being a fan of a team that just locked in their first two wins of an NCAA tournament in history, the there was some encouragement for the season, though it ended in a disappointing fashion. Looking at the ag markets, we saw some pressure late this week. After seeing some strength ahead of a ag celebration at the White House, the market sold the facts into the weekend. That doesn’t change the fact that we are still looking at elevated prices following a rally over the last month. As with end to the Huskers season, a disappointing end to an encouraging run.
Corn faded lower again this Friday, to push the weekly move to 3 1/2 cents lower in May, as December was down just 1/2 cent. EIA showed ethanol production back up 23,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/20, to 1.116 million bpd. Stocks saw a build of another 763,000 barrels to 27.17 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.22 MMT in the week of March 19. Export commitments are now 68.88 MMT, which is 82% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 86% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 24 indicated managed money adding another 55,744 contracts of futures and options to the spec fund net long position. That took the net long position to 384,548 contracts.
The wheat complex held up this week, closing with gains across the three markets. Kansas Cirt was the leader, up 26 ½ cents in the May contract. MPLS spring wheat was up 20 ¼ cents since last Friday. Chicago was up 9 ¾ cents on the week. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 46% good/excellent, or 328 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 52% gd/ex (339) in the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 12 was 397,245 MT. That takes export commitments to 24.25 MMT, which is 99% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 100% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders showed managed money trimming another 10,468 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 2,234 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat cut back 1,021 contracts from their new net long position to 9,705 contracts.
Soybeans were higher for much of the week but faded back late to close with May down 2 cents from last Friday. The nearby new crop spread narrowed by a nickel, with November up 3 cents. May soybean meal was the pressure factor, down $12.70/ton, as bean oil was up 190 points. EPA released their finalized RVOs for 2026 on Friday, with bio-mass based diesel set at 8.86 billion RINS (not gallons), which exceeded the 7.12 billion RINs previously proposed. The small refinery exemption reallocation takes that to 9.07 billion RINS for 2026. They also announced that in 2028, foreign fuel and feedstocks will only receive 50% of the RIN value. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at a marketing year low of 668,901 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on 3/19. Commitments are now 37.26 MMT, which is 87% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 95% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back another 4,093 contracts from their net long of 197,904 contracts by 3/24.
Live cattle saw some late week gains, with contracts up $4.45 since last Friday. Cash trade was steady this week, with trade at $234-235. Feeders were in rally mode late, as April was up $10.27 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was just 92 cents higher week/week to $362.98. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $3.10. Choice boxes were down $7.14/cwt (1.8%) on the week to $392.97, as Select was $3.07 (0.4%) lower at $389.87 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 3.7% above the week prior and down 12.1% from the same week last year at 467.6 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.8% on a 10.2% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data was out on Tuesday afternoon, with 413.34 million lbs of beef stocks on February 28, the lowest since 2014. Workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, CO, are expected to continue their strike into next week. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 110,909 contracts, an increase of 4,294 contracts on the week ending March 24.
Hogs were mixed this week, as nearby April was down 50 cents, with June up $1.65. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $0.58 this week at $91.46 as of March 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $2.64 (2.7%) this week to $96.56/cwt. The picnic and belly primals led the way to the downside. Weekly pork production was up 1.3% from last week at 551.1 million lbs, which is 2.5% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.1% on a 0.9% drop in slaughter. Pork stocks on Thursday were reported at 403.503 million lbs at the end of February, the lowest for the months since 1997.Hogs and Pigs data showed all hog inventory up 0.44% from a year ago at 74.321 million head. Market hogs were up 0.61% at 68.429 million head, with and hogs kept for breeding down 1.47% to 5.892 million head. CFTC data showed managed money slashing 15,070 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/24, taking the total to 101,483 contracts.
Cotton futures saw gains this week, with May up 215 points. December was 206 points higher this week. Export Sales from the week of 3/12 were tallied at 202,444 RB for old crop, with 227,017 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 400,552 RB. Total commitments are now 9.556 million RB, which is 85% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 98% average pace. Spec traders cut back their net short position by 6,757 contracts in in the week of 3/24, taking the total to 33,448 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 25 points to 54.47 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. Tuesday will likely be a volatile one, with the Prospective Plantings and March Grain Stocks report out from NASS. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. We will also get the monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports from NASS that afternoon. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning per normal, with Thursday also the expiration of April live cattle options. The market will be off on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has remained in the uptrend, though recent action has gotten choppy. There is a 78.6% Fib retracement resistance off the LOC high to low at $4.96 ¾, which has largely held. The spike to $4.98 ½ has become a double top, which would be a triple top on another test, which (almost) never hold. MACD is looking to flip bearish after losing momentum. Friday was an outside day lower, not bullish by any means but technically inert. Supper comes via the 18-day moving average at $4.86 ¼, with the parabolic SAR at $4.84. There is a rising regression channel with support at $4.83 after widening out. The 38.2% Fib retracement support (not pictured) off the recent high is at $4.78 and held last week. Any break below the $4.83-4.85 level, would likely suggest a broader break to the downside.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.