After rallying to some fresh multi-month and/or year highs in some of the grains this month, there came a correction that started with the limit losses early in the week for soybeans. That eventually spilled over to the wheat, which despite a sharp midweek rally closed out on a weaker note. Even corn was dragged along with the weakness. Now it is a far cry from a declaration that the rally is over, but the market has a way of humbling things in a hurry. It wasn’t an easy week on the home front here either, as we had to say goodbye to our dog of 10 years. But as the livestock showed, there are always some bright spots and with the switching of the seasons to spring, it brings new life back into focus.
Corn faded lower on Friday, to push the weekly move to 1 ¾ cents lower in May, as December was down just ¾ cent. EIA showed ethanol production back down 33,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/13, to 1.093 million bpd. Stocks saw a build of 827,000 barrels to 26.407 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.17 MMT in the week of March 12. Export commitments are now 67.66 MMT, which is 81% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 82% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 17 indicated managed money adding 35,533 contracts of futures and options to the spec fund net long position. That took the net long position to 228,804 contracts.
The wheat complex was lower this week, mainly on late week pressure. Chicago was down 18 ½ cents on the week. KC wheat slipped 23 ¾ cents from last Friday. May MPLS was 17 ½ cents in the red on the week. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 52% good/excellent, or 339 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 56% gd/ex (348) in the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 12 was 189,887 MT. That takes export commitments to 23.853 MMT, which is 97% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 99% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money trimming back 9,643 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 12,702 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat added to their new net long position by 1,301 contracts to 10,729 contracts.
Soybeans fell apart early in the week to push the May losses to 64 cents. There was some old/new crop spreading, as November was down just 20 ½ cents. May soybean meal held up with a $5.30/ton gain, as bean oil was down 193 points. Early week pressure came as the meeting with President Trump and China’s Xi was pushed back, as well as doubts about China buying another 8 MMT. NOPA data showed a February record 208.8 mbu of soybeans crushed among members, up 10.57% from a year ago but down 1.52% from January. Soybean oil stocks were 2.08 billion lbs, a 38.37% yr/yr increase, with a monthly jump of 9.49%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at a marketing year low of 298,208 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on 3/12. Commitments are now 36.79 MMT, which is 86% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 94% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back 20,110 contracts from their net long of 201,997 contracts by 3/17.
Live cattle posted strength this week, with April up $3.15 from Friday. Cash trade was steady this week, with trade at $235-236. Feeders were in rally mode, with March up $8.275 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $1.09 week/week to $362.06. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $2.19/cwt (0.6%) on the week to $400.11, as Select was $1.40 (0.4%) higher $392.94 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 3% below the week prior and down 6% from the same week last year at 455.3 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.4% on a 9.8% drop in slaughter. Workers at the JBS plant in Greeley started their strike this week. Cattle on Feed data from Friday afternoon showed a total of 1.611 million head of feeders placed during February, a 3.67% increase yr/yr, with marketings at 1.522 million head, down 7.8% vs. last year. That took the March 1 on feed inventory to 11.549 million head, a 0.24% drop yr/yr. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 106,615 contracts, a reduction of 2,417 contracts on the week ending March 17.
Hogs were in the red this week, with April down $2.17 on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $0.60 this week at $92.04 as of March 18. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 99 cents (1%) this week to $99.20/cwt. The loin, ham, and belly primals led the way to the downside. Weekly pork production was down 1.5% from last week at 544.1 million lbs, which is 3.5% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.3% on a 1.0% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed new pork business of 28,284 MT in the week that ended on 3/12, up 19.2% from the week prior.
Shipments were at a 4-week low of 35,674 MT in that week. CFTC data showed managed money slashing 11,151 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/17, taking the total to 116,553 contracts.
Cotton futures was in rally mode this week, up 146 points despite a late week correction. December was up 163 points this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese counterparts met last weekend in Paris, as it was reported that China was open to buying more US ag goods, specifically more non-soybean row crops, i.e. possibly cotton. Export Sales from the week of 3/12 were tallied at 196,691 RB for old crop, with 122,221 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 273,926 RB. Total commitments are now 9.354 million RB, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 96% average pace. Spec traders slashed their net short position by 26,549 contracts in in the week of 3/17, taking the total to 40,205 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 272 points to 54.22 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week is a fairly quiet one ahead of the following week’s quarterly USDA reports. We start with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning per normal. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs data will be out on Thursday afternoon. Thursday is also the last trade day for March feeder cattle futures and options. April serial grain options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybean
November soybeans had a rough start to the week, with Monday’s action falling out of a rising regression channel, as well as below the 18-day moving average at $11.40 ½. They quickly made their way back above the 18-day and are trying to hold it as support, though it is becoming porous. The action on Monday that are arguably just as important was breaking the 1/3 speedline off the rally from Jan, which has held on a retest, with futures walking up the low side at $11.47 ¾. Failure to get back above that, i.e. a successful retest, could suggest going down to the 2/3 at $11.04. That is near the 100-day moving average at $11.03 ¼. Stochastics are bearish, and an ADX at 34 says to follow MACD, which says sell. If we can somehow ignore all of that and get some help from the energies, the high from last week at 11.74 ¼ is lateral resistance with a 78.6% Fib retracement of the LOC high to low is at $11.85 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Not an Easy Week. Ag Marketing Report 03/23/2026
After rallying to some fresh multi-month and/or year highs in some of the grains this month, there came a correction that started with the limit losses early in the week for soybeans. That eventually spilled over to the wheat, which despite a sharp midweek rally closed out on a weaker note. Even corn was dragged along with the weakness. Now it is a far cry from a declaration that the rally is over, but the market has a way of humbling things in a hurry. It wasn’t an easy week on the home front here either, as we had to say goodbye to our dog of 10 years. But as the livestock showed, there are always some bright spots and with the switching of the seasons to spring, it brings new life back into focus.
Corn faded lower on Friday, to push the weekly move to 1 ¾ cents lower in May, as December was down just ¾ cent. EIA showed ethanol production back down 33,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/13, to 1.093 million bpd. Stocks saw a build of 827,000 barrels to 26.407 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.17 MMT in the week of March 12. Export commitments are now 67.66 MMT, which is 81% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 82% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 17 indicated managed money adding 35,533 contracts of futures and options to the spec fund net long position. That took the net long position to 228,804 contracts.
The wheat complex was lower this week, mainly on late week pressure. Chicago was down 18 ½ cents on the week. KC wheat slipped 23 ¾ cents from last Friday. May MPLS was 17 ½ cents in the red on the week. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 52% good/excellent, or 339 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 56% gd/ex (348) in the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 12 was 189,887 MT. That takes export commitments to 23.853 MMT, which is 97% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 99% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money trimming back 9,643 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 12,702 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat added to their new net long position by 1,301 contracts to 10,729 contracts.
Soybeans fell apart early in the week to push the May losses to 64 cents. There was some old/new crop spreading, as November was down just 20 ½ cents. May soybean meal held up with a $5.30/ton gain, as bean oil was down 193 points. Early week pressure came as the meeting with President Trump and China’s Xi was pushed back, as well as doubts about China buying another 8 MMT. NOPA data showed a February record 208.8 mbu of soybeans crushed among members, up 10.57% from a year ago but down 1.52% from January. Soybean oil stocks were 2.08 billion lbs, a 38.37% yr/yr increase, with a monthly jump of 9.49%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at a marketing year low of 298,208 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on 3/12. Commitments are now 36.79 MMT, which is 86% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 94% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back 20,110 contracts from their net long of 201,997 contracts by 3/17.
Live cattle posted strength this week, with April up $3.15 from Friday. Cash trade was steady this week, with trade at $235-236. Feeders were in rally mode, with March up $8.275 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $1.09 week/week to $362.06. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $2.19/cwt (0.6%) on the week to $400.11, as Select was $1.40 (0.4%) higher $392.94 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 3% below the week prior and down 6% from the same week last year at 455.3 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.4% on a 9.8% drop in slaughter. Workers at the JBS plant in Greeley started their strike this week. Cattle on Feed data from Friday afternoon showed a total of 1.611 million head of feeders placed during February, a 3.67% increase yr/yr, with marketings at 1.522 million head, down 7.8% vs. last year. That took the March 1 on feed inventory to 11.549 million head, a 0.24% drop yr/yr. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 106,615 contracts, a reduction of 2,417 contracts on the week ending March 17.
Hogs were in the red this week, with April down $2.17 on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $0.60 this week at $92.04 as of March 18. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 99 cents (1%) this week to $99.20/cwt. The loin, ham, and belly primals led the way to the downside. Weekly pork production was down 1.5% from last week at 544.1 million lbs, which is 3.5% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.3% on a 1.0% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed new pork business of 28,284 MT in the week that ended on 3/12, up 19.2% from the week prior.
Shipments were at a 4-week low of 35,674 MT in that week. CFTC data showed managed money slashing 11,151 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/17, taking the total to 116,553 contracts.
Cotton futures was in rally mode this week, up 146 points despite a late week correction. December was up 163 points this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese counterparts met last weekend in Paris, as it was reported that China was open to buying more US ag goods, specifically more non-soybean row crops, i.e. possibly cotton. Export Sales from the week of 3/12 were tallied at 196,691 RB for old crop, with 122,221 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 273,926 RB. Total commitments are now 9.354 million RB, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 96% average pace. Spec traders slashed their net short position by 26,549 contracts in in the week of 3/17, taking the total to 40,205 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 272 points to 54.22 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week is a fairly quiet one ahead of the following week’s quarterly USDA reports. We start with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning per normal. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs data will be out on Thursday afternoon. Thursday is also the last trade day for March feeder cattle futures and options. April serial grain options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybean
November soybeans had a rough start to the week, with Monday’s action falling out of a rising regression channel, as well as below the 18-day moving average at $11.40 ½. They quickly made their way back above the 18-day and are trying to hold it as support, though it is becoming porous. The action on Monday that are arguably just as important was breaking the 1/3 speedline off the rally from Jan, which has held on a retest, with futures walking up the low side at $11.47 ¾. Failure to get back above that, i.e. a successful retest, could suggest going down to the 2/3 at $11.04. That is near the 100-day moving average at $11.03 ¼. Stochastics are bearish, and an ADX at 34 says to follow MACD, which says sell. If we can somehow ignore all of that and get some help from the energies, the high from last week at 11.74 ¼ is lateral resistance with a 78.6% Fib retracement of the LOC high to low is at $11.85 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.