Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, and PPI ex Food, Energy and Trade at 7:30 A.M., Factory Orders MoM and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, 1st Yr, 2nd Yr, Current, and Longer at 1:00 P.M. Fed Press Conference at 1:30 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
With rent prices the lowest since 2022 and rising energy price will even further befuddle the FED today. The Kansas City Fed’s Q4 2025 Ag Bulletin reflected that the US economy remained split in two. Livestock provided the strength, while crop producers continued to face a weak earnings environment. Average US agricultural prices ended 2025 about 5% below the start of the year, as lower prices for corn, dairy, broilers, and eggs more than offset gains in cattle. Crop-sector revenues declined for the third straight year, but stronger cattle sales and modest gains in gog, turkey, and egg receipts lifted livestock revenues and helped push net farm income 20% above 2024. Domestic demand for agricultural products stayed generally solid through year-end, and exports of many commodities improved, though soybean exports of many commodities improved, soybean exports were notably weaker. Credit conditions softened gradually during the year, yet broad financial stress remained limited. Loan delinquency rates and leverage were steady, interest on non-real-estate farm loans declined, and resilient farmland values and government payments helped cushion pressure on crop producers. The November soybean/December corn price ratio continues to send a mixed average signal. The ratio remains well above a year ago, yet it has spent much of the season below the 10-year average. This week’s ratio sits near 2.36.1. Most 2026 planting decisions were set months ago, so the market’s ability to materially shift acreage in March is limited, still, new-crop values are leaning more soybean friendly than last year- suggesting some rotation – driven acres could move from corn to soybeans, but not in an outsized way. May soybeans found support on Tuesday after trading in a nearly $.90 range in just 4 days. The next major catalyst is biofuels policy, followed end-of-month Planting Intentions and Grain stocks. Volatility persists.
US and world corn futures closed mixed with talk of reduced corn seeding for the March 31st report. Without soaring crude or improving US-Chinese trade relations, the market is left to focus on sizable supplies, the need for unending demand growth, and recent/upcoming Midwest soil moisture improvement. Argentine remains the world’s low-cost supplier, offering into June at FOB prices $.08-$.15/Bu below US origin, despite recent erosion of Gulf basis levels. Brazil and Ukraine remain non-competitive with offers +122 to +125. The need for cash markets to clear stocks leans bearish mid-spring onward unless a dire Central US drought emerges. Ag Resources (ARC) will use rallies to add 10% sales for the 2026 and 2027 cops.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Corn-Soybean Changing Seeding Ratio. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/18/2026
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, and PPI ex Food, Energy and Trade at 7:30 A.M., Factory Orders MoM and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, 1st Yr, 2nd Yr, Current, and Longer at 1:00 P.M. Fed Press Conference at 1:30 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
With rent prices the lowest since 2022 and rising energy price will even further befuddle the FED today. The Kansas City Fed’s Q4 2025 Ag Bulletin reflected that the US economy remained split in two. Livestock provided the strength, while crop producers continued to face a weak earnings environment. Average US agricultural prices ended 2025 about 5% below the start of the year, as lower prices for corn, dairy, broilers, and eggs more than offset gains in cattle. Crop-sector revenues declined for the third straight year, but stronger cattle sales and modest gains in gog, turkey, and egg receipts lifted livestock revenues and helped push net farm income 20% above 2024. Domestic demand for agricultural products stayed generally solid through year-end, and exports of many commodities improved, though soybean exports of many commodities improved, soybean exports were notably weaker. Credit conditions softened gradually during the year, yet broad financial stress remained limited. Loan delinquency rates and leverage were steady, interest on non-real-estate farm loans declined, and resilient farmland values and government payments helped cushion pressure on crop producers. The November soybean/December corn price ratio continues to send a mixed average signal. The ratio remains well above a year ago, yet it has spent much of the season below the 10-year average. This week’s ratio sits near 2.36.1. Most 2026 planting decisions were set months ago, so the market’s ability to materially shift acreage in March is limited, still, new-crop values are leaning more soybean friendly than last year- suggesting some rotation – driven acres could move from corn to soybeans, but not in an outsized way. May soybeans found support on Tuesday after trading in a nearly $.90 range in just 4 days. The next major catalyst is biofuels policy, followed end-of-month Planting Intentions and Grain stocks. Volatility persists.
CBOT Corn Prices Closed Mixed Amid Talk of Lower 2026 Corn Acres:
US and world corn futures closed mixed with talk of reduced corn seeding for the March 31st report. Without soaring crude or improving US-Chinese trade relations, the market is left to focus on sizable supplies, the need for unending demand growth, and recent/upcoming Midwest soil moisture improvement. Argentine remains the world’s low-cost supplier, offering into June at FOB prices $.08-$.15/Bu below US origin, despite recent erosion of Gulf basis levels. Brazil and Ukraine remain non-competitive with offers +122 to +125. The need for cash markets to clear stocks leans bearish mid-spring onward unless a dire Central US drought emerges. Ag Resources (ARC) will use rallies to add 10% sales for the 2026 and 2027 cops.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374