The markets as a whole, from ags, to energy, and even equities have had a wild past week. After the US and Israel strikes on Iran last weekend extended through this week, there have been several implications, mainly on the energy market. Still given the fact our world is built off oil, there has been an impact across a wide swath of the economy. The market has rewarded the energy markets, from crude to natural gas, diesel and gasoline all seeing sharp rallies. That is where the ‘risk on’ is happening, as the war risk enters the equation with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down and world oil stocks tighten. That has spilled over to the grains, as there comes a broader commodity buying factor/inflation risk if the conflict continues. Commodities are generally a good place to park money in those times. On the contrary, the ‘risk off’ is coming in the equities, as inflation concerns lead to a possibility that the Fed could revert recent rate cuts. That has been a slight pressure point for the livestock. As the famous saying in The Karate Kid goes, “Wax on, wax off. Don’t forget to breathe, very important.” Just remember, don’t forget to breathe!
Corn started the week with a choppier trade, but finished with a bang, as May was up 12 cents from a week ago. Crude rallying 35.63% was a supportive factor. EIA showed ethanol production down 18,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/27, to 1.095 million bpd. Stocks were up 691,000 barrels to 26.337 million barrels. USDA’s Grain Crushing report showed 460.95 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in January, a decline of 1.49% from a year ago and down 4.5% from December. USDA Export Sales data had corn sales totaling 2.02 MMT in the week of February 26. Export commitments are now 64.98 MMT, which is 78% of the USDA export forecast and in line with the average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 3 indicated managed money flipping to a net long by 66,841 contracts to 52,974 contracts.
The wheat complex put it in high gear late in the week with all three exchanges rallying into the weekend. KC was up 43 cents in the May contract to lead the way. Chicago SRW was up 25 ¼ cents in May, with May MPLS up 30 1/4 cents. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Tuesday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 58% good/excellent, or 353 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 61% gd/ex (359) in early February. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of February 12 was 203,100 MT. That takes export commitments to 23.205 MMT, which is 95% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 97% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money slashing adding back 8,503 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 25,800 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat trimmed some of their new net long position since by 2,338 contracts to 1,866 contracts.
Soybeans got some help this week from the sharp rally in crude oil as May was up 30 cents. May soybean meal was back down $3.30/ton, with bean oil another 473 points higher. Fats & Oils data showed 227.8 mbu of soybeans crushed in January, a drop of 0.87% from December but 7.2% above the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks rose 11.72% from the end of December to 2.43 billion lbs, which was 33.9% larger than the same period last year. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings slipping to 383,492 of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 26. Commitments are now 36.03 MMT, which is 84% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 92% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 14,700 contracts to their net long of 198,902 contracts by 3/3.
Live cattle held on for a slight gain this week despite late week pressure, as April was up $2.35. Cash trade was softer in the south and firm in the north at $240, with some at $242, reported on the week. Feeders held steady, up just 20 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $5.47 week/week to $367.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $7.38/cwt (1.9%) on the week to $387.22, as Select was $4.64 (1.2%) lower at $378.95 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.3% above the week prior and down 7.2% from the same week last year at 465.6 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.8% on a 10.0% drop in slaughter. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed a total of just 11,163 MT of beef sold in the week ending on February 26, a calendar year low. Shipments were up to 14,914 MT in that week, which was the second largest for 2026. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 114,519 contracts, a reduction of 4,494 contracts on the week ending March 3.
Hogs were back and forth this week with April down a dime from last Friday as the closing bell rang. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.43 this week at $90.55 as of March 4. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up just $0.50 (0.5%) this week to $98.27cwt. The picnic ($2.81) and belly (+$8.04) were the only primals reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 0.7% from last week at 544.4 million lbs, which is 5.1% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.8% on a 1.5% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data from USDA showed 36,103 MT of pork sold in the week of 2/26. Shipments were at 37,842 MT in that week, which was a drop of 7.9% wk/wk. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 7,053 contracts back to their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/3, taking the total to 124,036 contracts.
Cotton futures were back lower this week, as May lost 141 points. Export Sales from the week of 2/26 were tallied at 150,362 RB, with shipments at 282,155 RB. Total commitments are now 8.9 million RB, which is 79% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 92% average pace, but catching up. Spec traders were busy adding back 14,140 contracts to their net short position in the week of 3/3, taking the total to 72,937 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was trimmed by 40 points to 51.44 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts out with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. Monday is also the last trade day for March cotton futures. Tuesday will be the release of the monthly USDA WASDE report, as well as the Crop Production and Cotton Ginnings report EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning. March grains futures will expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November beans have rallied nearly a dollar off the mid-January low. The rally has been orderly with a nice rising regression channel, as resistance is at $11.49 and being tested on Friday’s push, with support at $11.27. The trend is still your friend, even as MACD momentum was slipping. ADX at 40 says to follow the trend. Parabolic SAR would get triggered bearish at $11.26 ¼. Stochastics have a bearish divergence, but ADX says to ignore that. The 61.8% Fib retracement resistance the LOC high to low is at $11.42 ¼ and was broken on Friday. The 78.6% is clear up at $11.85 ¾. Any pullback below the $11.25 is an warning shot, with the 18-day moving average at $11.22 ¾ support beyond that.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Risk On, Risk Off. Ag Marketing Report 03/13/2026
The markets as a whole, from ags, to energy, and even equities have had a wild past week. After the US and Israel strikes on Iran last weekend extended through this week, there have been several implications, mainly on the energy market. Still given the fact our world is built off oil, there has been an impact across a wide swath of the economy. The market has rewarded the energy markets, from crude to natural gas, diesel and gasoline all seeing sharp rallies. That is where the ‘risk on’ is happening, as the war risk enters the equation with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down and world oil stocks tighten. That has spilled over to the grains, as there comes a broader commodity buying factor/inflation risk if the conflict continues. Commodities are generally a good place to park money in those times. On the contrary, the ‘risk off’ is coming in the equities, as inflation concerns lead to a possibility that the Fed could revert recent rate cuts. That has been a slight pressure point for the livestock. As the famous saying in The Karate Kid goes, “Wax on, wax off. Don’t forget to breathe, very important.” Just remember, don’t forget to breathe!
Corn started the week with a choppier trade, but finished with a bang, as May was up 12 cents from a week ago. Crude rallying 35.63% was a supportive factor. EIA showed ethanol production down 18,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/27, to 1.095 million bpd. Stocks were up 691,000 barrels to 26.337 million barrels. USDA’s Grain Crushing report showed 460.95 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in January, a decline of 1.49% from a year ago and down 4.5% from December. USDA Export Sales data had corn sales totaling 2.02 MMT in the week of February 26. Export commitments are now 64.98 MMT, which is 78% of the USDA export forecast and in line with the average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 3 indicated managed money flipping to a net long by 66,841 contracts to 52,974 contracts.
The wheat complex put it in high gear late in the week with all three exchanges rallying into the weekend. KC was up 43 cents in the May contract to lead the way. Chicago SRW was up 25 ¼ cents in May, with May MPLS up 30 1/4 cents. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Tuesday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 58% good/excellent, or 353 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 61% gd/ex (359) in early February. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of February 12 was 203,100 MT. That takes export commitments to 23.205 MMT, which is 95% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 97% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money slashing adding back 8,503 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 25,800 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat trimmed some of their new net long position since by 2,338 contracts to 1,866 contracts.
Soybeans got some help this week from the sharp rally in crude oil as May was up 30 cents. May soybean meal was back down $3.30/ton, with bean oil another 473 points higher. Fats & Oils data showed 227.8 mbu of soybeans crushed in January, a drop of 0.87% from December but 7.2% above the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks rose 11.72% from the end of December to 2.43 billion lbs, which was 33.9% larger than the same period last year. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings slipping to 383,492 of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 26. Commitments are now 36.03 MMT, which is 84% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 92% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 14,700 contracts to their net long of 198,902 contracts by 3/3.
Live cattle held on for a slight gain this week despite late week pressure, as April was up $2.35. Cash trade was softer in the south and firm in the north at $240, with some at $242, reported on the week. Feeders held steady, up just 20 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $5.47 week/week to $367.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $7.38/cwt (1.9%) on the week to $387.22, as Select was $4.64 (1.2%) lower at $378.95 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.3% above the week prior and down 7.2% from the same week last year at 465.6 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.8% on a 10.0% drop in slaughter. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed a total of just 11,163 MT of beef sold in the week ending on February 26, a calendar year low. Shipments were up to 14,914 MT in that week, which was the second largest for 2026. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 114,519 contracts, a reduction of 4,494 contracts on the week ending March 3.
Hogs were back and forth this week with April down a dime from last Friday as the closing bell rang. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.43 this week at $90.55 as of March 4. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up just $0.50 (0.5%) this week to $98.27cwt. The picnic ($2.81) and belly (+$8.04) were the only primals reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 0.7% from last week at 544.4 million lbs, which is 5.1% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.8% on a 1.5% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data from USDA showed 36,103 MT of pork sold in the week of 2/26. Shipments were at 37,842 MT in that week, which was a drop of 7.9% wk/wk. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 7,053 contracts back to their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/3, taking the total to 124,036 contracts.
Cotton futures were back lower this week, as May lost 141 points. Export Sales from the week of 2/26 were tallied at 150,362 RB, with shipments at 282,155 RB. Total commitments are now 8.9 million RB, which is 79% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 92% average pace, but catching up. Spec traders were busy adding back 14,140 contracts to their net short position in the week of 3/3, taking the total to 72,937 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was trimmed by 40 points to 51.44 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts out with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. Monday is also the last trade day for March cotton futures. Tuesday will be the release of the monthly USDA WASDE report, as well as the Crop Production and Cotton Ginnings report EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning. March grains futures will expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November beans have rallied nearly a dollar off the mid-January low. The rally has been orderly with a nice rising regression channel, as resistance is at $11.49 and being tested on Friday’s push, with support at $11.27. The trend is still your friend, even as MACD momentum was slipping. ADX at 40 says to follow the trend. Parabolic SAR would get triggered bearish at $11.26 ¼. Stochastics have a bearish divergence, but ADX says to ignore that. The 61.8% Fib retracement resistance the LOC high to low is at $11.42 ¼ and was broken on Friday. The 78.6% is clear up at $11.85 ¾. Any pullback below the $11.25 is an warning shot, with the 18-day moving average at $11.22 ¾ support beyond that.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.