Very Complete and Tough Strait. The Energy Report 03/10/2026

The stock market railed and oil reverses after President Trump’s comments calm panicked investors that the Iran war Is ‘Very Complete” and  a major tanker flagged to Greece safely traversed safely  through the Strait of Hormuz along with reports of many more ships making the perilous journey through the world most critical oil chokepoint that caused the biggest spike and then reversal in oil price history.  Also, the mere mention of a possible coordinated release of emergency oil reserves The International Energy Agency (IEA) help create the epic sell off.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reported that the “IEA called for each country to do a coordinated release of oil reserves,” Katayama said. “In response ⁠to the current situation… the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring developments in the energy market and to take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including the release of oil reserves.”

WTI crude shot above $119/barrel amid fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions and supply halts creating the biggest single-event supply disruption in history. Reports of hits on Qatari LNG and Saudi oil facilities as well as tv pictures oil river fame in Iran raised concerns and fear of an oil price Armageddon.  Yet as events calmed markets the price has fallen sharply—trading around $88-95/barrel today (down ~6-7% in recent sessions). Brent crude is in a similar range (~$91-93/barrel) because of what was  at least the biggest single-event supply disruption in history.

President Trump on Truth Sosial said that “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,”  and despite the reports that the strait was closed some ships made it through signaling that the closure might be over soon.

Amid the escalating conflict in early March 2026, the Greek-operated Suezmax tanker Shenlong, holding around one million barrels of Saudi crude from Ras Tanura, managed to cross the perilous Strait of Hormuz. Operated by Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., the Shenlong took the precaution of turning off its AIS transponder in the Persian Gulf on March 4, only broadcasting its location once it had safely exited the strait and was en route to India. This daring journey made Shenlong one of the rare non-Iranian-affiliated vessels to successfully transit during the crisis, alongside other ships employing similar stealth tactics to evade detection and potential Iranian threats.

Chinese-flagged vessels like the container ship Run Chen 2 have resorted to turning off their AIS transponders before crossing, only reactivating them once safely in the Gulf of Oman. Of the 55 Chinese ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, just a few have attempted the perilous transit since early March, with most opting to wait. In contrast, Iran-linked tankers and bulk carriers have continued to cross, often disabling transponders or navigating through signal interference, making real-time tracking difficult. Over 20 commercial vessels reportedly managed to transit the strait in the past week using such stealth tactics. Some non-Chinese ships have gone so far as to alter their AIS data to appear as “China owned”—for example, the Marshall Islands-flagged Iron Maiden and Panama-flagged Guan Yuan Fu Xing—while also disabling their transponders during passage. Dynacom Tankers, for its part, instructed crews on at least five of its vessels to switch off transponders when approaching the strait, enabling continued operations despite ongoing Iranian threats.

Overall, reports say that  official tanker traffic through the strait dropped sharply to near standstill levels since late February 2026, as hundreds of vessels anchored outside due to heightened risks. Transponder deactivation has become common, especially amid reports of GPS spoofing and signal interference. Despite these challenges, there are indications that many other ships may attempt the perilous journey as the situation evolves.

 There is also a perception that Iran’s ability to attack ships is waning with every hour as the assaults by the US and Isreal continue.

The Impact on gas price is real as gasoline prices have experienced a sharp increase over the past month. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows national average prices for regular gasoline rising from $2.921 a month ago to $3.539 currently—a 21% jump. Similar trends are evident across mid-grade, premium, diesel, and E85 fuels. This surge aligns with a spike in crude oil prices.

However, the dramatic reversal in oil markets could lead to lower gasoline prices at the pump, though with a typical lag of 2-4 weeks due to supply chain dynamics. The speed of the decline will depend on the resolution of the conflict and stabilization of global oil flows, potentially bringing regular gasoline back toward $3.00-3.20 per gallon within a month under optimistic scenarios. Sleep buyers are probably losing some money on the way up.  For many the best way to play this is combo options and futures strategies

Natural gas futures at CME though mainy a domestic market has got caught up in the oil swing movers as a massive price surge in oil raises all hydrocarbons.  U.S. nat gas prices caught a nice tailwind from the Iran conflict drama, with Henry Hub April 2026 futures (NGJ26) hanging around a cheerful $3.06–$3.09 per MMBtu as of early March 10, still flashing a bit of that geopolitical sparkle even after oil dramatically decided to take the express elevator back down from its $119/bbl party in the sky.

Spot prices are chilling comfortably near $3.00/MMBtu, proving once again that when crude gets the hiccups, Nat gas politely tags along for the ride before reminding everyone it’s really got its own life.

Under the hood, the fundamentals are looking downright cozy for anyone who likes a well-supplied market heading into shoulder season. Production is humming along at a robust 109–110 Bcf/d Permian associated gas and the ever-reliable Haynesville and Eagle Ford crews—with the EIA y forecasting U.S. dry gas output averaging around 110 Bcf/d for 2026 (up a solid 2% year-over-year) and even more growth baked in for 2027 once those pesky Permian pipeline bottlenecks loosen up later this year. Some of my producers’ friends think they are all crazy for production so much

 LNG exports continue to be the rock-star supporter, with feedgas nominations averaging a healthy 18–19 Bcf/d (and occasionally spiking near 19.6 Bcf/d), keeping the U.S. firmly planted as a global gas-exporting powerhouse despite the occasional Sabine Pass maintenance yawn.

On the demand side, winter is finally waving goodbye: warmer weather forecasts are quietly melting away the last bits of heating load, domestic consumption is easing toward 91–92 Bcf/d, and even exports to Mexico remain steady at about 6.5 Bcf/d while Canadian imports take a polite step back. Storage? Still playing nice.

Fox Weather even suggests some may turn on the air conditioning Thet say that after a harsh winter full of bitter Arctic blasts plunging temperatures below freezing, over 300 million Americans will finally feel relief with a surge of spring-like warmth for the first time all season.

Millions of Americans will feel a surge in warmth, but the feeling will sadly be temporary before temperatures dip back to cold by mid-March.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, temperatures are expected to be 15-25 degrees above average, with over 200 new record highs possible.

Download the Fox Weather Ap to see how warm it will be . Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network for late breaking developments on the war! Call me if you need any help at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com

 

Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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