AgMaster Report – 03/04/2026

MAY BEANS   

The IRANIAN WAR started last Saturday has introduced many variables & volatility into grain mkts – today alone US $ is sharply higher in a flight to safety, the DJI is sharply lower off inflation, recession fears & crude oil is up $10 since the W/E off the closing of the Straights of Homuz! However good news surfaced overnite as the US-China Summit scheduled for 4-1-26 is still on despite China’s disapproval of the war! This & the soaring crude oil prices temporarily lifted bean prices to the highs of their $1.20 rally which commenced on 1-1-26! Recent estimators have ratcheted down the Brazilian bean crop to 177-8mmt from 182-3! The record crop appears dialed in – and better China exports should extend the current rally!

 

MAY CORN

May Corn has grinded higher since early Jan off sterling exports which routinely run between 1-2 mmt for Mon Inspections & Thur Sales & frequent daily flash sales! The surging energy prices today are adding to the strength! US Acres are estimated to be down 3-4ma! And dry areas are starting to spring up in the US Midwest! Also, US Corn is still the cheapest around! We look for the seasonal rally to continue into planting!

 

MAY WHT

May Wht has surprisingly been the upside leader at the CBOT – rallying 80 cents – since the beginning of 2026! The fundamentals really didn’t inspire the rally as global stocks are plentiful but seem to be dialed in to the price! Also, the short fund position was quite large with historically cheap prices – & the shorts got nervous & started short covering! Lately rains in the plains have forced a correction -although Oklahoma has a GD-EX of only 19% compared to last years 35%! The Iranian War forced a higher US Dollar & that may have inhibited some wht exports! However, we look for wht to continue its upward MO – later this week!

 

APRIL CAT

Apl Cat has displayed an excellent example of BULLISH DIVERGENCE today – rallying to higher on the day – despite the DJI being down 1100 points earlier! This can be attributed to several factors – very tight supplies, Apl Cat’s severe discount to cash & robust demand on-the-come as the Spring Grilling Season is right around the corner! We look for the mkt to challenge the 2026 highs by month’s end!

 

APL HOGS

After breaking $8 in early Feb, the mkt has languished in a tight range the past week! Slaughter has been on the high side & exports have been below average! Even though pork enjoys an economic advantage in the supermkt  over beef, its demand has been lagging in recent weeks! However, with its best demand period dead ahead, we look for Apl Hogs to rally to their Feb highs – coat-tailing Apl Cat!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337