About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat closed higher last week on buying tied to higher prices paid in overseas markets and on drier weather in the Great Plains.  The weather is now averaging above normal temperatures and some rain is forecast for parts of the Great Plains and Midwest, but variable temperatures are coming now or in the next couple of days along with some beneficial precipitation in a few areas.  Temperatures were cold enough a couple of weeks ago to promote Winterkill.  Many parts of the Great Plains are too dry for best yield potential, but USDA has recently rated the crops in good condition.  Russia has been cold as well, bust no losses have been reported although some damage is possible.  The US Supreme Court has made the Trump tariffs illegal.  This should be good news for US Ag markets as the decision should help reduce costs of imported inputs and cash sales for exports.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

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Corn:  Corn was slightly lower last week in consolidation trading.  Trends are still mixed.  There are still excessive supplies as seen in the recent USDA reports after trending higher against strong demand.  Temperatures in the Midwest should average above normal this week but will return to near normal temperatures by this weekend.  Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there.  The US Supreme Court has made the Trump tariffs illegal.  This should be good news for US Ag markets as the decision should help reduce costs of imported inputs and cash sales for exports.   USDA showed that planted Corn area could be just under 95 million acres in the US.  Oats were higher and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying even though the big South American crops were still in the news.  South American sources said that the Brazil crops are now more than 21% harvested.  There are still ideas of additional Chinese demand soon that were fueled by statements by President Trump that he and Xi had talked and that the president had pushed him for more Soybeans purchases as both sides work to reduce trade tensions between the countries.  It will be up to the Chinese government to buy as US Soybeans are too high priced for commercial demand from commercial users in China or almost anywhere else.  The tariff wars between the two countries add another layer of cost onto the Soybeans.  Soybean Oil was supported by strong demand ideas led by demand for biofuels.  It still seems that the market is concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there now underway.  Temperatures will average near to above normal in the Midwest this week.  The US Supreme Court has made the Trump tariffs illegal.  This should be good news for US Ag markets as the decision should help reduce costs of imported inputs and cash sales for exports.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice was lower last week and trends are down.  The weekly export sales report was considered positive.  Futures had been recovering for the last month after a very long and sizable down move, but the up move came to an apparent end last week.  Traders anticipate less production this year in the US and around the world due to low prices.  Asian Rice prices are under pressure now due to a weaker Indian Rupee that forced costs for Indian Rice lower.  Trends are mixed as demand remains moderate for US Rice.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil futures were lower Friday in trading after the Lunar New Year as the export data from private sources showed weaker demand.  Ideas of increasing seasonal demand and ideas that Palm Oil is relatively cheap in the world market are still around.  Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now with some looking for weaker demand and others looking for improved demand.  Production is expected to drop in the short term.   Canola was higher yesterday on mostly speculative buying amid strong demand ideas.  The selling seen came ideas of big crops in South America.  Canada and China reached agreement on a new trade deal which is expected to result in part in new sales of Canola to China

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  :   Cotton was higher last week, with much of the rally coming on Friday due to the US Supreme Court rejecting the Trump tariffs.  No tariffs give producers more space on inputs and on export sales.  There are still demand concerns moving forward on weak world economy ideas led by the US weakened economy and demands in world forums.  However, crude oil futures were stronger and kept polyester price higher than cotton.  Overseas production in places like India and Brazil are expected to be high.  The USDA Outlook Forum showed that planted area for Cotton is estimated at 9.4 million acres with total production estimated at 13.6 million bales.  Trends turned up on the daily charts with the price action on Friday.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  Futures were lower last week after big selling seen on Thursday and Friday.  The Florida harvest is active but starting to wrap up and the weather remains benign for harvest progress as conditions are mostly dry.  March was lower in liquidation trading before First Notice Day at the beginning of next month.  Weather for the next crop was very cold in January and into early February and some damage to trees and fruit was expected.  The frozen fruit is often harvested and sent to processors for juice and this fact helped to turn trends down on the weekly charts last week.  The weather now looks warmer and any danger of a freeze event is passing by.  Chart trends are mixed or up on the daily charts.  The weather is considered good for production in Brazil and Mexico.  Scattered showers are reported in Brazil.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  Both markets closed lower last week as good weather for growing and harvesting continues to be seen in Brazil and Vietnam.  Production ideas are high in both countries.  The trends are mixed in New York and mixed in London on the daily charts.  There are still reports of harvest sales from Vietnam as the new harvest is active.  There are reports of very good conditions in Brazil and a large crop is forecast.  Brazil producers have stopped selling due to the recent fall in prices.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has scattered showers lately and conditions there are called good.  Vietnamese producers are selling new crop Coffee.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London were higher last week and trends are now mixed on the daily charts.  There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increase supplies especially for White Sugar while global consumption is expected to remain steady.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:   New York and London closed lower last week on speculative selling.  Some producer selling in Ivory Coast was also noted.  Short term trends are down in both markets and Ghana announced it was cutting the farmgate price paid to farmers in an effort to increase sales.  A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Weak demand has led to a build-up on unsold supplies in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, while the prospect of another global surplus in 2026/27 are real.  Cocoa demand has fallen sharply after prices nearly tripled in 2024, prompting chocolate makers to reformulate ingredients and shrink the size of their bars.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

 

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322