The weather outside is less than frightful. Temps this last week have made things feel closer to April 13 than February 13. As much as I’d like to think the spring feeling weather is here to stay, there’s something in the back of my brain that says, “hold up, it’s February still.” While that doesn’t mean it can’t stay in the 50/60s for the rest of the winter season, odds are against it. As the seasons seem like they are shifting to spring a little earlier, we got some higher price movement across much of the ags. That is a sight for sore eyes, even if there’s something in the back of your head that says, “hold up!”
Corn saw another week of back and forth trade as March was up 1 1/2 cents from last Friday. USDA’s monthly WASDE tightened the balance sheet for the US by 100 mbu to 2.127 bbu via an increase to exports. EIA showed ethanol production rebounding 154,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/6, to 1.11 million bpd. Stocks were up 111,000 to 25.247 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at 2.07 MMT in the week of February 5. Export commitments are now 60.805 MMT, which is 73% of the newly revised USDA export forecast and matching the average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of February 3 indicated managed money at a net short of 48,210 contracts, a reduction of 20,576 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was back to higher trade this week. March CBT was back up 19 cents, with March KC 11 1/4 cents lower on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 1 3/4 cents in the green. USDA raised their balance sheet by 5 mbu on Tuesday, by cutting back food use. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 29 was 487,998 MT. That takes export commitments to 22.467 MMT, which is 92% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 93% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of February 10 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding back 3,900 contracts from their net short at 85,655 contracts. In KC wheat, they added their net short by 10,652 contracts to 19,496 contracts in that week.
Soybeans extended the rally this week, with March 17 3/4 cents higher. Products added some continued support, as March soybean meal was up $5.60/ton, with bean oil 175 points higher. USDA left their US balance sheet alone this week on the US side at 350 mbu, Brazil production was raised by 2 MMT to 180 MMT. The market took that in stride, as the buying seemed to continue on ideas of increased China purchases. Brazil’s CONAB raised their number by 1.86 MMT to 177.98 MMT. Weekly Export Sales data showed a MY low 281,798 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 5, down from last week’s low. Commitments are now 34.572 MMT, which is 80% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 88% average pace. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 94,316 contracts to their net long to 123,147 contracts by 2/10.
Live cattle saw strength for much of the week, as February was up $5.32 on the week, with April up $3.37. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $244-245 in the north and $245-248 sales in the south. Feeders slipped this week, as March was down $1.27 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.25 week/week to $373.91. Wholesale boxed beef prices slipped back this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $1.05. Choice boxes were down $4.86/cwt (1.3%) on the week to $364.47, as Select was $2.1.11 (0.3%) lower at $363.42 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.2% above the week prior but down 1.8% from the same week last year at 483.1 million lbs. Year to date production is down 8.6% on a 10.6% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs cutting 5,897 contracts from their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/10, taking the net long to 108,634 contracts.
Hog bulls were in get out mode this week as April was down $6.67 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 83 cents this week at $86.89 as of February 11. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.39 (1.5%) this week to $95.16/cwt. The butt was the leaver to the upside with the rib and ham reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 3.8% from last week at 547.1 million lbs, which is 0.1% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.7% on a 2.5% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding a total of 4,424 contracts to the net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of Tuesday, taking the total to 133,281 contracts.
Cotton futures bounced back this week, as March was up 105 points. USDA’s WASDE showed a 200,000 bale cut to exports, as ending stocks were raised by 200,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. Cotton Ginnings data showed 13.202 million RB ginned as of February 1. Export Sales from the week of 2.5 were tallied at 231,031 RB, with shipments at 188,597 RB. Total commitment are now 8.03 million RB, which is 71% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 88% average pace. Spec traders were busy adding 3,856 contracts to their net short position in the week of 2/10, taking the total to 75,602 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 49.39 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week a day late with President’s Day on Monday. The markets and government are closed. The weekly Export Inspections report will be out on Tuesday, as well as the monthly NOPA data. EIA data will be out on Thursday morning. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Friday morning. March grain options expire on Friday. Cattle on Feed data for January will be out on Friday afternoon.
Tech Talk: March Corn
After March corn appeared to show a bear flag formation following USDA’s January crop report, there has been a lack of follow through to the downside. Despite several attempts to breakthrough an uptrend line, the market has held up. There is a rising regression channel with support near $4.27, as the 18-day moving average at $4.28 ½ has held. Stochastics are sitting in neutral as we chop our way in the uptrend. There is a 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at $4.32 ¼, with the 50% at $4.37. The 40-day moving average is also resistance at $4.34. The choppy trade continues, but the keys to a break higher would be $4.36, with a test below $4.25 suggesting more downside risk.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Season Shift. Ag Marketing Report 02/17/2026
The weather outside is less than frightful. Temps this last week have made things feel closer to April 13 than February 13. As much as I’d like to think the spring feeling weather is here to stay, there’s something in the back of my brain that says, “hold up, it’s February still.” While that doesn’t mean it can’t stay in the 50/60s for the rest of the winter season, odds are against it. As the seasons seem like they are shifting to spring a little earlier, we got some higher price movement across much of the ags. That is a sight for sore eyes, even if there’s something in the back of your head that says, “hold up!”
Corn saw another week of back and forth trade as March was up 1 1/2 cents from last Friday. USDA’s monthly WASDE tightened the balance sheet for the US by 100 mbu to 2.127 bbu via an increase to exports. EIA showed ethanol production rebounding 154,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/6, to 1.11 million bpd. Stocks were up 111,000 to 25.247 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at 2.07 MMT in the week of February 5. Export commitments are now 60.805 MMT, which is 73% of the newly revised USDA export forecast and matching the average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of February 3 indicated managed money at a net short of 48,210 contracts, a reduction of 20,576 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was back to higher trade this week. March CBT was back up 19 cents, with March KC 11 1/4 cents lower on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 1 3/4 cents in the green. USDA raised their balance sheet by 5 mbu on Tuesday, by cutting back food use. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 29 was 487,998 MT. That takes export commitments to 22.467 MMT, which is 92% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 93% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of February 10 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding back 3,900 contracts from their net short at 85,655 contracts. In KC wheat, they added their net short by 10,652 contracts to 19,496 contracts in that week.
Soybeans extended the rally this week, with March 17 3/4 cents higher. Products added some continued support, as March soybean meal was up $5.60/ton, with bean oil 175 points higher. USDA left their US balance sheet alone this week on the US side at 350 mbu, Brazil production was raised by 2 MMT to 180 MMT. The market took that in stride, as the buying seemed to continue on ideas of increased China purchases. Brazil’s CONAB raised their number by 1.86 MMT to 177.98 MMT. Weekly Export Sales data showed a MY low 281,798 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 5, down from last week’s low. Commitments are now 34.572 MMT, which is 80% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 88% average pace. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 94,316 contracts to their net long to 123,147 contracts by 2/10.
Live cattle saw strength for much of the week, as February was up $5.32 on the week, with April up $3.37. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $244-245 in the north and $245-248 sales in the south. Feeders slipped this week, as March was down $1.27 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.25 week/week to $373.91. Wholesale boxed beef prices slipped back this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $1.05. Choice boxes were down $4.86/cwt (1.3%) on the week to $364.47, as Select was $2.1.11 (0.3%) lower at $363.42 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.2% above the week prior but down 1.8% from the same week last year at 483.1 million lbs. Year to date production is down 8.6% on a 10.6% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs cutting 5,897 contracts from their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/10, taking the net long to 108,634 contracts.
Hog bulls were in get out mode this week as April was down $6.67 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 83 cents this week at $86.89 as of February 11. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.39 (1.5%) this week to $95.16/cwt. The butt was the leaver to the upside with the rib and ham reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 3.8% from last week at 547.1 million lbs, which is 0.1% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.7% on a 2.5% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding a total of 4,424 contracts to the net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of Tuesday, taking the total to 133,281 contracts.
Cotton futures bounced back this week, as March was up 105 points. USDA’s WASDE showed a 200,000 bale cut to exports, as ending stocks were raised by 200,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. Cotton Ginnings data showed 13.202 million RB ginned as of February 1. Export Sales from the week of 2.5 were tallied at 231,031 RB, with shipments at 188,597 RB. Total commitment are now 8.03 million RB, which is 71% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 88% average pace. Spec traders were busy adding 3,856 contracts to their net short position in the week of 2/10, taking the total to 75,602 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 49.39 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week a day late with President’s Day on Monday. The markets and government are closed. The weekly Export Inspections report will be out on Tuesday, as well as the monthly NOPA data. EIA data will be out on Thursday morning. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Friday morning. March grain options expire on Friday. Cattle on Feed data for January will be out on Friday afternoon.
Tech Talk: March Corn
After March corn appeared to show a bear flag formation following USDA’s January crop report, there has been a lack of follow through to the downside. Despite several attempts to breakthrough an uptrend line, the market has held up. There is a rising regression channel with support near $4.27, as the 18-day moving average at $4.28 ½ has held. Stochastics are sitting in neutral as we chop our way in the uptrend. There is a 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at $4.32 ¼, with the 50% at $4.37. The 40-day moving average is also resistance at $4.34. The choppy trade continues, but the keys to a break higher would be $4.36, with a test below $4.25 suggesting more downside risk.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.