Peak Mirage. The Energy Report 02/10/2026

Just when you think you have moved closer to the peak, you find out that it was just a mirage. Years ago, they were telling us the world was running out of oil and that global oil production had already peaked, but that was just a mirage. Then they told us that oil demand had hit a peak and that it would continue to fall because of EVs and alternative energy.  Yet with the U.S. economy showing incredible strength and EV demand falling flat, as it seems you can’t force change on the people or have the government control the market.

Now the latest company to comer to that conclusion is the world’s largest independent oil trader Vitol Group said oil demand will take longer to peak than it previously estimated as countries prioritize growth and energy security over efforts to curb consumption.

 Reportedly they wrote that “Over the past year, decarbonization policies have become a less decisive driver of efforts to curb oil consumption and reduce carbon dioxide emissions,” it said in a report on Monday. “Policy priorities have increasingly been reframed around economic competitiveness and geopolitical strategy.”

This latest outlook is more than just a blip on the radar—it’s a neon sign flashing for all to see: hydrocarbons aren’t fading away anytime soon. In fact, the big players, like Vitol Group, are signaling that oil and gas are gearing up for an encore, not a curtain call. Forget those predictions of a swift transition to a green utopia; the energy world is digging in for a longer haul, with oil demand expected to remain robust as nations put economic growth and security ahead of rapid decarbonization. The bottom line? The hydrocarbon era is alive and well, and it’s likely sticking around longer—and stronger—than the experts once dared to admit.

Of course oil prices are up on geopolitical risks as well as strong US demand,  Iran is rattling its saber once again, warning that any attack could trigger strikes on U.S. bases—even as diplomatic talks continue. Reuters reports that oil  fired up after the U.S. Department of Transportation threw out an advisory telling U.S.-flagged ships to steer well clear of Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. When the world’s most crucial oil chokepoint gets a warning shot like that, the market listens—and the price needle jumps.v

It’s the same old high-stakes brinkmanship we’ve seen before, showing that sometimes, the threat of action speaks louder than actual negotiations.

The European Union is turning up the heat on Moscow, proposing a new ban on services that support Russia’s oil exports. If it goes through, it could throw another wrench into the Kremlin’s plans and add fresh complications to the global oil trade.

And in another sign that the energy chessboard is shifting, sources say India is living up to its promise to President Trump quietly pulling back from Russian oil. It’s a move that could reshape flows and raise eyebrows in energy markets from Moscow to Mumbai.

NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Oil prices didn’t just drift higher—they surged over 1% on Monday, fired up after the U.S. Department of Transportation threw out an advisory telling U.S.-flagged ships to steer well clear of Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. When the world’s most crucial oil chokepoint gets a warning shot like that, the market listens—and the price needle jumps.v

Low prices cure low prices—it’s one of the oldest maxims in the commodity world, and once again, it’s playing out on the global energy stage. BP, one of the world’s oil titans, just got a hard dose of that reality. The company has announced a sharp drop in annual profits, sending a jolt through the market and reinforcing the age-old energy cycle: when prices tumble, pain follows, but so does the setup for the next rally. As crude prices slipped last year, BP found itself scrambling, unveiling an even more ambitious cost-cutting target to weather the storm.

The numbers tell the tale. BP pulled in profits of $7.5 billion for 2025—nothing to sneeze at, but a far cry from the $8.9 billion it reported the previous year. The culprit? Oil prices that fell off a cliff, dropping roughly 20% and leaving energy giants like BP feeling the squeeze. It’s a stark reminder that in this business, the only thing you can count on is volatility. And when prices head south, even the biggest players have to brace for impact.

BP isn’t just tightening its belt—it’s going into full-blown survival mode. Facing the profit plunge, the company has pressed pause on its share buyback program, a move sure to disappoint investors hungry for returns. On top of that, BP is slashing spending across the board, all in a bid to shore up its financial defenses and navigate the choppy waters ahead. This is the oil patch’s version of battening down the hatches—cut costs now, wait for the storm to pass, and live to fight another day.

So what’s the takeaway? Just as we’ve been reminded in recent days that the age of hydrocarbons is far from over, we’re also seeing that the energy market’s self-correcting mechanisms are alive and well. Low prices hurt—ask BP’s accountants—but they also sow the seeds for eventual recovery. In the energy world, every dip sets up the next run higher. If history is any guide, don’t count out the oil giants just yet—they’ve weathered plenty of storms and know that today’s pain is tomorrow’s opportunity.

Nat Gas is still adjusting to the weather.  Fox Weather reports that  As Arctic temperatures finally depart across the eastern U.S., the FOX Forecast Center is tracking a massive cross-country storm expected to bring heavy rain from the Desert Southwest across the Deep South this weekend, part of a major shift in the overall weather pattern. It’s been an active winter across the eastern half of the country, as repeated storms have produced snow and ice due to the cold air that dominated much of December, January and the first part of February.

But that Arctic air has been replaced by a record warm-up across the Central U.S. and the Northeast is finally beginning to thaw — meaning that this weekend’s storm will be delivering much-needed rain.Many places across the Southern Plains and the South are actually experiencing drought conditions, especially Arkansas and portions of Georgia.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, a storm system will move out of Baja California and into the Southwest and Southern Plains starting Friday.  Widespread rain and even some thunderstorms are expected across the South through the weekend.  NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a low-level flash flood threat has been issued for parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Southern Missouri, West Tennessee and Northern Mississippi. Fom there, most computer forecast models show that this system remains to the south, moving across the Gulf Coast before sliding offshore near the Southeast coast. v

In a second, much less-likely scenario, the massive storm system lifts north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.Looking into early next week, a large dip in the jet stream is expected to stall over the West. This will promote an area of high pressure over the east, reversing the weather pattern that has dominated much of the past month. When this happens, storms will be more likely to form in the West. As they move across the central U.S., they will grow stronger and then push eastward.

Make sure you download the Fox Weather app and stay tuned to Fox Business Call to opoen your account by calling 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.

 

Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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