Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Grains Report 02/09/2026
DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. 2025-26 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range January 2024-25
Corn 2,260 2,177-2,452 2,227 1,551
Soybeans 348 265-375 350 325
Wheat 916 876-926 926 855
***
World 2025-26 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2025-26 USDA USDA
Average Range January 2024-25
Corn 291.3 288.3-294.6 290.9 294.7
Soybeans 125.5 123.2-127.0 124.4 123.4
Wheat 278.3 277.1-279.0 278.3 260.0
***
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2025-26
Average Range USDA January USDA 2024-25
Corn 132.6 131.0-135.5 131.0 136.0
Soybeans 179.2 178.0-181.6 178.0 171.5
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2024-25
Corn 52.9 51.5-55.0 53.0 50.0
Soybeans 48.1 47.0-48.5 48.5 51.1
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed a little lower last week on the weather that was cold, has now moderated to above normal temperatures. Temperatures were cold enough a week ago to promote Winterkill, but most areas got some snow cover to protect crops now. This was not true when the cold came a couple of weeks ago. The snow came after the cold weather was a factor. Concerns on the condition of the Winter Wheat crops moving forward are growing as there is little snow cover and some very cold temperatures are occurring that could have created Winterkill over the weekend again. Many parts of the Great Plains are too dry for best yield potential.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 519, 502, and 510 March, with resistance at 545, 555, and 563 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 525, 516, and 508 March, with resistance at 550, 553, and 559 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 03, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 612,046
: Positions :
: 71,300 157,206 215,915 123,920 102,505 165,714 100,644 576,849 576,270: 35,197 35,776
: :
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 (Change in open interest: 14,796) :
: 2,108 -8,365 9,134 -3,961 2,407 8,480 8,368 15,761 11,544: -966 3,252
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 25.7 35.3 20.2 16.7 27.1 16.4 94.2 94.2: 5.8 5.8
: :
: Total Traders: 383 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 116 132 90 93 44 31 306 305:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 03, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 334,508
: Positions :
: 52,004 80,884 83,736 66,665 112,734 112,957 33,691 315,362 311,045: 19,146 23,463
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 (Change in open interest: 4,109) :
: 5,900 11,405 -1,140 -4,801 -2,637 2,806 -5,096 2,765 2,532: 1,344 1,577
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 24.2 25.0 19.9 33.7 33.8 10.1 94.3 93.0: 5.7 7.0
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 80 75 71 75 37 22 203 204:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 3, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 75,979 :
: Positions :
: 37,072 24,172 2,679 958 862 7,955 28,803 3,800 6,595 786 6,970 :
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 :
: 796 2,407 -410 -267 24 -129 -1,278 281 312 -77 15 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.8 31.8 3.5 1.3 1.1 10.5 37.9 5.0 8.7 1.0 9.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 105 :
: 43 33 4 . . 11 25 10 9 4 9 :
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 3, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 75,979 :
: Positions :
: 37,072 24,172 2,679 958 862 7,955 28,803 3,800 6,595 786 6,970 :
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 :
: 796 2,407 -410 -267 24 -129 -1,278 281 312 -77 15 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.8 31.8 3.5 1.3 1.1 10.5 37.9 5.0 8.7 1.0 9.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 105 :
: 43 33 4 . . 11 25 10 9 4 9 :
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RICE:
General Comments Rice was higher last week and trends are still up. Futures have been recovering for the last month after a very long and sizable down move. Traders anticipate less production this year in the US and around the world due to low prices. Weaker world prices are expected by the FAO in the coming year. Asian Rice prices are under pressure now due to a weaker Indian Rupee that forced costs for Indian Rice lower. Trends are up in the market but demand remains moderate for US Rice.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1090 1087, and 1069 March and resistance is at 1139, 1145, and 1154 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 3, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,959 :
: Positions :
: 6,278 3,456 160 112 0 1,062 5,110 243 1,277 838 1,543 :
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 :
: -230 298 0 -20 0 -194 -940 217 -180 67 338 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.4 26.7 1.2 0.9 0.0 8.2 39.4 1.9 9.9 6.5 11.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 75 :
: 17 14 . . 0 6 20 4 10 8 9 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week. Trends are mixed but are trying to turn up due to excessive supplies as seen in the recent USDA reports after trending higher in recent weeks to the recent demand based rally and after production was increased in the annual report. USDA increased production in the annual reports and the increased supplies have made it hard for prices to rally at all despite reports of strong demand. Temperatures in the Midwest should average above normal next week. Oats were lower and trends are mixed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 417, 414, and 411 March, and resistance is at 445, 453, and 465 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 284, 278, and 27\5 March, and resistance is at 317, 320, and 326 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 03, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,142,087
: Positions :
: 153,164 339,234 696,280 664,766 775,297 442,524 131,516 1,956,734 1,942,327: 185,353 199,759
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 (Change in open interest: 49,439) :
: -10,456 3,348 38,119 7,947 9,051 11,582 -1,139 47,191 49,378: 2,247 61
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.2 15.8 32.5 31.0 36.2 20.7 6.1 91.3 90.7: 8.7 9.3
: Total Traders: 816 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 127 167 207 382 374 52 26 690 662:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 3, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,142 :
: Positions :
: 959 1,005 0 0 0 0 1,249 95 1,228 141 101 :
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 :
: 57 114 0 -119 0 0 -105 95 -44 -77 -56 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.1 24.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.2 2.3 29.6 3.4 2.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 5 6 0 0 0 0 5 . 6 . . :
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher last week on mostly speculative buying after President Trump indicated that he is asking the Chinese to buy another 8 million tons of US Soybeans. The Chinese have not commented on the Trump statements. There are ideas of additional Chinese demand soon but it will be up to the government to buy as US Soybeans are too high priced for commercial demand from China or almost anywhere else. The tariff wars between the two countries add another layer of cost onto the Soybeans. It still seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there now underway. Brazil Soybeans are now 10% harvested. The South American crops are expected to be very large and large South American crops will pressure world prices. Temperatures will average above normal in the Midwest next week.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeaans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1082, 1070, and 1064 March, and resistance is at 1115, 1124, and 1138 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 March, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 5490, 5410, and 5340 March, with resistance at 5620, 5680, and 5740 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 03, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,084,818
: Positions :
: 104,602 108,026 312,961 385,761 533,315 221,630 49,111 1,024,954 1,003,414: 59,864 81,404
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 (Change in open interest: 37,095) :
: 9,666 4,576 12,332 13,626 20,914 2,835 -461 38,459 37,361: -1,365 -266
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 10.0 28.8 35.6 49.2 20.4 4.5 94.5 92.5: 5.5 7.5
: Total Traders: 630 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 132 197 224 257 50 26 524 522:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 03, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 613,292
: Positions :
: 85,768 93,512 134,478 227,994 313,755 114,881 36,778 563,120 578,523: 50,172 34,770
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 (Change in open interest: 13,020) :
: -1,804 -8,257 1,233 11,883 22,295 1,868 -5,856 13,180 9,415: -161 3,604
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 15.2 21.9 37.2 51.2 18.7 6.0 91.8 94.3: 8.2 5.7
: Total Traders: 350 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 70 103 132 124 36 22 299 276:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 03, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 778,141
: Positions :
: 63,233 102,343 243,978 283,729 352,830 151,864 48,104 742,803 747,255: 35,338 30,886
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 (Change in open interest: 13,409) :
: 945 1,260 10,025 10,754 -1,252 -7,471 3,832 14,252 13,865: -844 -456
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 13.2 31.4 36.5 45.3 19.5 6.2 95.5 96.0: 4.5 4.0
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 83 128 103 109 42 23 312 283:
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PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower last week but were higher today. Ideas of increasing seasonal demand and on ideas that Palm Oil is relatively cheap in the world market are still around. Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now with some looking for weaker demand and other looking for improved demand. Production is expected to drop in the short term. Canola was higher last week on mostly speculative buying and strong demand ideas. Canada and China reached agreement on a new trade deal which is expected to result in part in new sales of Canola to China There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 638.00, 634.00, and 623.00 March, with resistance at 663.00, 668.00, and 674.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4150, 4070, and 4010 April, with resistance at 4350, 4420, and 4540 April.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 3, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 26,414 :
: Positions :
: 22,098 16,556 1,280 4,008 640 1,380 0 70 880 5,120 0 :
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 :
: -1,370 -931 316 331 -400 1,340 -450 -160 54 1,436 -126 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 83.7 62.7 4.8 15.2 2.4 5.2 0.0 0.3 3.3 19.4 0.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 8 . 5 . . 0 . . 5 0 :
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 3, 2026
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 310,967 :
: Positions :
: 197,974 134,835 6,914 4,532 4,941 40,374 82,975 28,580 10,683 31,994 19,979 :
: Changes from: January 27, 2026 :
: 1,911 15,077 -315 -3,150 89 3,721 -6,536 3,109 777 503 -1,376 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 63.7 43.4 2.2 1.5 1.6 13.0 26.7 9.2 3.4 10.3 6.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 370 :
: 60 93 6 5 7 39 47 27 48 107 61 :
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