Back From the Brinkmanship. The Energy Report 02/02/2026

Oil prices have fallen due to reduced risk after President Trump stepped back from attacking Iran Not to mention the fact that OPEC plus Russia kept production steady and the fact that we’ve seen a general commodity sell off partly because the market seems to like president trump’s new pick for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.

A selloff followed Fox News reports that President Donald Trump believes Iran is negotiating seriously with the U.S. and hopes for an “acceptable” deal, as he considers military options amid unrest in Iran. Trump noted the deployment of powerful naval forces to the region but emphasized his preference for negotiation. Recent tensions have eased, with both nations signaling optimism about ongoing talks and upcoming high-level meetings—a notable shift from earlier threats of regional conflict. However, the durability of this diplomatic progress remains uncertain. President trump course said he was locked and loaded if the Iranian regime slaughtered its own people which it did so it’s going to be interesting to see how these negotiations are going to play out.

 This comes as OPEC and its allies are staying steady, keeping oil output unchanged through March, a move that added to downside momentum.  OPEC plus as you know, boosted quotas last year by nearly 3% of global demand but caused further increases.

As far as excitement OPEC meetings are not the drama they used to be with a swift Sunday meeting, leaders confirmed this approach, echoing earlier decisions for January and February. While they’ve yet to signal their direction past March, the unified stance adds welcome stability to global energy markets and consumers and shows that they want to stay out of President Trumps crosshairs with a production cut.

President Donald J. Trump dropped the hammer on Friday, nominating Kevin Warsh to take the helm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, succeeding Jerome Powell when his term wraps in May. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh could be the steady hand that calms the storm of uncertainty swirling around Fed policy – and that’s music to the ears of anyone betting on oil, gas, or the broader economy. Warsh’s rock-solid credentials eases concerns that President Trump just wanted a yes man at the Fed.

On top of that the oil prices are getting caught up in the volatility in the metals funds are getting big margin calls more than likely and we’re seeing a lot of offsetting across the board we think a lot of that should level out by tomorrow and actually we think the oil prices are probably going to see a bit of a bounce back either later today or tomorrow

But I don’t know if that’s true about natural gas the promises of another polar vortex may not be enough to save this market that saw extreme technical damage on the change in the weather forecast and some concerns about LNG exports. Natural gas prices dropped as Fox Weather reported that a weakening polar vortex will prolong extreme cold for millions in the Eastern US.   Reuters reported that Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas was on track to take in more natural gas on Friday in a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains was likely back in service after shutting down on Thursday, data from LSEG showed. Freeport is one of the world’s most closely watched liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants because the shutdown and startup of the facility have previously caused massive price swings in global gas markets.

EBW Analytics   reported that The February contract spanned at least a $1.53/MMBtu intraday trading range in each of its final three sessions before rolling off the board at  $7.460—and March soared 74.5¢ as historic cold launched physical spot prices higher and piqued market supply fears.• Those fears were largely put to rest with a bearish weekend weather shift erasing 26 gHDDs over the next three weeks. While storage deficits may still offer notable support, the bullish fever gripping NYMEX natural gas futures for the past two weeks may soon break.

You know the other key thing will be is whether we get another polar vortex repeat we’re definitely going to see some warming of temperatures and that pushed the prices lower this morning.

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