This last week has been a rough one in the Schroeder house. I’ll spare all the details but let’s just say my daughter is the early front runner for the 2026 Favorite Child Award for being the only one to make the puke bucket. We have been through the gauntlet of sick kids, and the frigid temps have kept us locked inside, driving my insanity to the next level. But we can all hope the end is in sight! The same can be said about some of the ag markets. Each have been through gauntlets of their own, and some are still running through it. Corn is dealing with an oversupply, beans have been through the export drought, wheat is, well wheat just can’t catch a break. Cattle had the risk off event from October, and cotton can seem to get out of its lull.
Corn bulls managed to push back on Friday, taking the weekly gain to 5 ¾ cents. EIA showed updated ethanol production totals at 1.119 million barrels per day in the week of 1/16, back down 77,000 barrels per day from the previous all time record. Stocks rose another 1.266 million barrels to 25.739 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Friday showed a multi year high in corn sales at 4.01 MMT in the week of January 15. Some buyers took advantage of the price break. Export commitments are now 56.0455 MMT, which is 69% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 65% average. Commitment of Traders data as of January 20 indicated managed money at a net short of 81,324 contracts, a slight reduction of 450 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex saw some strength this week, with the winter wheat’s putting in some premium late. March CBT was up 11 1/2 cents, with March KC 13 ½ cents higher on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 10 cents in the green. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 15 was a 9-week high at 618,076 MT. That takes export commitments to 21.034 MMT, which is 86% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 87% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of January 20 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 4,471 contracts to their net short at 110,700 contracts. In KC wheat, they added to their net short by 237 contracts to 13,018 contracts in that week.
Soybeans saw some strength this week, as March was a dime higher than last Friday. Products were also stronger this week, as March soybean meal was up $9.90/ton, with bean oil 138 points higher. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2.45 MMT sold in the week ending on January 15, a new marketing year high. Commitments are now 33.035 MMT, which is 77% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 85% average pace. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming another 2,901 contracts from their net long to 10,060 contracts by January 20.
Live cattle were stronger this week, as February was chasing cash and up $2.75 from last Friday. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $233-236 sales, mostly $1-3 higher. Feeders gained some ground, as Jan was up $2.87 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $6.67 week/week to $363.48. An update from APHIS this showed another 4 new active cases of new world screwworm in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US, taking the total to 12 active. Wholesale boxed beef prices gained some more strength this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $6.53. Choice boxes were up $6.54/cwt (1.8%) on the week to $368.92, as Select was $2.20 (0.6%) higher at $362.39 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.8% below the week prior and down 7.3% from the same week last year at 479.1 million lbs. Year to date production in the first three weeks of the year is down 10.8% on a 13.1% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed December placements down 5.38% from last year at 1.554 million head. Marketings during the month were up 1.78% yr/yr to 1.773 million head. January 1 on feed was 11.45 million head, down 3.15% from last year. Cold Storage data showed beef stocks down 3.51% from a year ago as of December 31 at 437.46 million lbs, That was up 2.8% from last month but the lowest December total since 2009.
Hogs snuck higher this week up 7 cents in February and 97 cents in the April contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $2.57 this week at $80.50 as of January 21. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.12 (2.3%) this week to $95.75/cwt. The rib was the only primals reported lower on the week, as the butt (+$4.82) and belly (+$3.45) led the way higher. Weekly pork production was down 4.8% from last week at 546.2 million lbs, which 1.6% above the same week last year. Production so far this year si sodn 3.3% on a 4.1% drop in slaughter. Monthly Cold Storage data showed pork stocks on December 31 at 390.55 million lbs, which was down 1.5% from last year and the lowest December since 1997. CFTC data had spec traders adding 14,794 contracts to their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 20 to 97,418 contracts.
Cotton futures were the weak spot in the ags this week after starting the week higher. March was 85 points higher. Export Sales from the week of 1/15 were tallied at 412,457 RB, a MY high, with shipments at 187,776 RB. Total commitment are now 7.35 million RB, which is 64% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 81% average pace. Cotton Ginnings data showed 732,950 RB of cotton ginned from Jan 1 to Jan 15, taking the marketing year total to 12.695 million RB. Commitment of Traders data for the week of January 20 showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 1,580 contracts to their net short position of 51,952 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.99 cents/lb on Thursday down 18 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the normal release of the weekly Export Inspections report. EIA data will be out on Wednesday per the usual schedule, with the weekly release of Export Sales data on Thursday. The Fed meets next week, with a rate decision expected on Wednesday afternoon. January feeder cattle futures and options expire on Thursday. NASS will also publish the annual Cattle Inventory report on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans have rallied off the post-USDA low of $10.37 ¾ by 30 cents. Futures are trying to break though the 200-day moving average at $10.68 ¼ at the moment, with the 1/3 speedline at $10.66 getting spiked on Friday. The 2/3 would be at $11.18 if we hold above the 1/3. Further resistance is at the 100-day moving average at 10.82 ¼, with the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at 10.89 ¼. A move there would get the winners out from the drop off the November high. MACD has a buy signal, and stochastics are running bullish. That would suggest $10.89 is a logical spot to test if we can maintain the momentum through $10.68.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
The Gauntlet. Ag Marketing Report 01/26/2025
This last week has been a rough one in the Schroeder house. I’ll spare all the details but let’s just say my daughter is the early front runner for the 2026 Favorite Child Award for being the only one to make the puke bucket. We have been through the gauntlet of sick kids, and the frigid temps have kept us locked inside, driving my insanity to the next level. But we can all hope the end is in sight! The same can be said about some of the ag markets. Each have been through gauntlets of their own, and some are still running through it. Corn is dealing with an oversupply, beans have been through the export drought, wheat is, well wheat just can’t catch a break. Cattle had the risk off event from October, and cotton can seem to get out of its lull.
Corn bulls managed to push back on Friday, taking the weekly gain to 5 ¾ cents. EIA showed updated ethanol production totals at 1.119 million barrels per day in the week of 1/16, back down 77,000 barrels per day from the previous all time record. Stocks rose another 1.266 million barrels to 25.739 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Friday showed a multi year high in corn sales at 4.01 MMT in the week of January 15. Some buyers took advantage of the price break. Export commitments are now 56.0455 MMT, which is 69% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 65% average. Commitment of Traders data as of January 20 indicated managed money at a net short of 81,324 contracts, a slight reduction of 450 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex saw some strength this week, with the winter wheat’s putting in some premium late. March CBT was up 11 1/2 cents, with March KC 13 ½ cents higher on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 10 cents in the green. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 15 was a 9-week high at 618,076 MT. That takes export commitments to 21.034 MMT, which is 86% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 87% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of January 20 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 4,471 contracts to their net short at 110,700 contracts. In KC wheat, they added to their net short by 237 contracts to 13,018 contracts in that week.
Soybeans saw some strength this week, as March was a dime higher than last Friday. Products were also stronger this week, as March soybean meal was up $9.90/ton, with bean oil 138 points higher. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2.45 MMT sold in the week ending on January 15, a new marketing year high. Commitments are now 33.035 MMT, which is 77% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 85% average pace. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming another 2,901 contracts from their net long to 10,060 contracts by January 20.
Live cattle were stronger this week, as February was chasing cash and up $2.75 from last Friday. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $233-236 sales, mostly $1-3 higher. Feeders gained some ground, as Jan was up $2.87 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $6.67 week/week to $363.48. An update from APHIS this showed another 4 new active cases of new world screwworm in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US, taking the total to 12 active. Wholesale boxed beef prices gained some more strength this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $6.53. Choice boxes were up $6.54/cwt (1.8%) on the week to $368.92, as Select was $2.20 (0.6%) higher at $362.39 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.8% below the week prior and down 7.3% from the same week last year at 479.1 million lbs. Year to date production in the first three weeks of the year is down 10.8% on a 13.1% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed December placements down 5.38% from last year at 1.554 million head. Marketings during the month were up 1.78% yr/yr to 1.773 million head. January 1 on feed was 11.45 million head, down 3.15% from last year. Cold Storage data showed beef stocks down 3.51% from a year ago as of December 31 at 437.46 million lbs, That was up 2.8% from last month but the lowest December total since 2009.
Hogs snuck higher this week up 7 cents in February and 97 cents in the April contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $2.57 this week at $80.50 as of January 21. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.12 (2.3%) this week to $95.75/cwt. The rib was the only primals reported lower on the week, as the butt (+$4.82) and belly (+$3.45) led the way higher. Weekly pork production was down 4.8% from last week at 546.2 million lbs, which 1.6% above the same week last year. Production so far this year si sodn 3.3% on a 4.1% drop in slaughter. Monthly Cold Storage data showed pork stocks on December 31 at 390.55 million lbs, which was down 1.5% from last year and the lowest December since 1997. CFTC data had spec traders adding 14,794 contracts to their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 20 to 97,418 contracts.
Cotton futures were the weak spot in the ags this week after starting the week higher. March was 85 points higher. Export Sales from the week of 1/15 were tallied at 412,457 RB, a MY high, with shipments at 187,776 RB. Total commitment are now 7.35 million RB, which is 64% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 81% average pace. Cotton Ginnings data showed 732,950 RB of cotton ginned from Jan 1 to Jan 15, taking the marketing year total to 12.695 million RB. Commitment of Traders data for the week of January 20 showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 1,580 contracts to their net short position of 51,952 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.99 cents/lb on Thursday down 18 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the normal release of the weekly Export Inspections report. EIA data will be out on Wednesday per the usual schedule, with the weekly release of Export Sales data on Thursday. The Fed meets next week, with a rate decision expected on Wednesday afternoon. January feeder cattle futures and options expire on Thursday. NASS will also publish the annual Cattle Inventory report on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans have rallied off the post-USDA low of $10.37 ¾ by 30 cents. Futures are trying to break though the 200-day moving average at $10.68 ¼ at the moment, with the 1/3 speedline at $10.66 getting spiked on Friday. The 2/3 would be at $11.18 if we hold above the 1/3. Further resistance is at the 100-day moving average at 10.82 ¼, with the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at 10.89 ¼. A move there would get the winners out from the drop off the November high. MACD has a buy signal, and stochastics are running bullish. That would suggest $10.89 is a logical spot to test if we can maintain the momentum through $10.68.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.