Trumps Trump Silver. Manic Metals Report 01/15/2026

Silver’s wild ride continues! After a margin hike failed to cool the market, President Trump stepped in with big news—his decision not to impose new taxes on critical resource imports sent silver prices on a roller-coaster,  and reducing the risk of an attack on  Iran sent it plunging by up to 7.3% before rebounding with a powerful surge that could close near yesterday’s highs. Traders took this as a golden opportunity to lock in profits after silver’s historic rally, leading to declines across the precious metals pack—including gold, platinum, and palladium. While some short-term consolidation might be on the horizon, the dream of $100 silver is still very much alive.
Gold also took a breather in Asian trading after a record-breaking streak, as President Trump’s more measured approach to the unrest in Iran and reassuring comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cooled the demand for safe-haven assets. Gold had just hit an all-time high of $4,642.72/oz, fueled by concerns over possible U.S. military action in the Middle East and political pressure on the Fed. But Trump’s signals of a softer stance on Iran—assuring that Iranian authorities would refrain from large-scale executions—helped ease geopolitical fears and settle the gold rally.
President Trump’s confirmation in a Reuters interview that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell, despite an ongoing investigation, helped reassure investors and reinforced trust in the independence of U.S. monetary policy. This calming influence contributed to a return of stability in the markets and set the stage for the next developments in precious metals.
Meanwhile, gold’s recent volatility appeared subdued, especially after Kitco News reported a sharp selloff Thursday morning. The decline followed an unexpectedly strong reading from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing sector survey, which jumped to 12.6 in January from -8.8 in December—far exceeding economists’ projections for another negative month. The survey indicated expansion in manufacturing activity, with increases in current activity, new orders, and shipments, and price indexes remaining above their long-run averages. Although firms reported higher employment, the employment index dipped slightly. While most indicators for future activity slipped, they still pointed to growth over the next six months.
For years, I’ve emphasized oil’s status as the lifeblood of the global economy—fueling our transportation, heating homes, and driving industrial growth. But times are changing rapidly. As we kick off 2026, copper has quietly overtaken oil in importance, becoming a pivotal force behind economic health. While crude oil remains relevant, copper’s essential role in the tech boom, the energy transition, and the rise of AI makes it a bellwether commodity right now. Let’s break down why copper is taking center stage, looking at fundamentals, supply-demand dynamics, and hard price data.
Copper has long been called “Dr. Copper” for its ability to predict economic cycles. Today, its relevance is clearer than ever. Copper is more than just wiring and plumbing—it’s the backbone of modern infrastructure.
Demand has soared due to electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy grids, and the data centers powering AI. For perspective, each EV uses about four times more copper than traditional vehicles, and wind turbines require significant amounts per megawatt. The explosive growth of AI infrastructure—think hyperscale data centers from companies like Google and Amazon—has driven a structural surge in copper demand, outpacing supply.
Meanwhile, oil’s dominance is fading. Global oil demand is still growing, but the shift toward electrification and renewables is seeming more important   Geopolitical volatility in the Middle East keeps oil prices unpredictable, but the real economic momentum is now in clean technology and digital transformation. A recent study warns of a widening copper supply gap by 2040, which could constrain growth in AI, EVs, and defense technology unless mining ramps up.
In contrast, oil faces challenges from efficiency gains, increased shale production, and policies pushing toward net-zero emissions. Copper’s tight supply signals robust expansion in high-growth industries, while oil remains tied to traditional manufacturing and transport—sectors that are evolving more slowly. In short, copper has shifted from a cyclical commodity to a strategic asset, powering the energy transition and digital economy, where oil is becoming more of a supporting player. If the economy accelerates this year—with lower interest rates and infrastructure investments—copper is likely to lead the charge. Analysts are even calling copper “the new oil” for 2026, reshaping trade and geopolitics.
The latest numbers clearly demonstrate copper’s dominance over oil as of mid-January 2026. Copper is trading at $5.94 per pound, hovering near its all-time highs, while oil (WTI) sits at $59.30 per barrel—well below its peaks from 2025, reflecting weaker momentum. On a daily basis, oil dropped 4.39%, a much steeper decline than copper’s 1.87%, showing how oil remains more volatile due to supply surpluses, whereas copper benefits from steady demand. Over the past month, copper has surged by 10.11%, more than double oil’s 4.36% gain, highlighting copper’s appeal amid the booming AI and green technology sectors, while oil continues to lag as inventories build up.
Looking at the three-month period, copper jumped 18.84% thanks to supply disruptions and increased demand from data center construction, while oil posted only a modest 1.77% rise amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Over six months, copper remained positive, up 6.85% despite market volatility, whereas oil fell sharply by 9.29% due to persistent oversupply and slower demand growth. The one-year change is even more striking: copper soared 35.78%, driven by structural trends and technological advancements, while oil declined 24.66% as efficiency improvements and the shift to renewables took their toll. For reference, copper’s 52-week high was $6.15 per pound and its low was $4.03, while oil’s high and low were $80.59 and $54.98 per barrel, respectively. These metrics underscore how copper is rapidly becoming the commodity to watch, outpacing oil on nearly every front ing.com
These metrics highlight copper’s opportunity. Over the last year, copper’s price appreciation has outpaced oil by roughly 60 percentage points—a clear signal that investors are betting on copper’s essential role in future growth. Low inventories and mining disruptions could push copper toward $6.50/lb if demand stays strong, while oil may hover in the $50–$70 range unless OPEC+ makes deeper cuts.
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