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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/13/2026

By On January 13, 2026 - 9:38 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report
and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2026 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
                   Monday’s                              USDA
                   Estimate    Average     Range         2025
All Winter Wheat     33.0        32.3    31.0 – 33.4     33.2
Hard Red Winter      23.5        23.0    22.0 – 24.0     23.5
Soft Red Winter      6.14         5.9     5.5 – 6.1       6.1
White Winter         3.36         3.5     3.2 – 3.7       3.6
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
  The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2025 (million bushels)
             Monday’s                              USDA        USDA
              Estimate    Average      Range      Sept. 2025   Dec. 2024
Corn          13,282      13,040   12,275-13,369    1,551       12,075
Soybeans       3,290       3,296    3,120- 3,445      325        3,100
Wheat          1,675       1,636    1,590- 1,696    2,134        1,572
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jan 12
  U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
  cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
  Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
  bales.
  Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
  date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
              ======U.S.======      ================WORLD===================
                Ending Stocks           Exports               Production
          25/26  24/25  23/24 : 25/26  24/25    23/24 : 25/26    24/25  23/24
Soybeans  350.0  325.0  342.0 :187.57  184.70  177.84 : 425.68  427.15  396.35
 Brazil      na     na     na :114.00  103.14  104.19 : 178.00  171.50  154.50
 Argentina   na     na     na :  8.25    7.87    5.11 :  48.50   51.11   48.21
 China       na     na     na :  0.10    0.07    0.07 :  20.90   20.65   20.84
Soyoil    1,752  1,747  1,551 : 13.69   15.18   11.81 :  71.13   69.99   63.99
Corn      2,227  1,551  1,763 :205.11  186.64  192.65 :  1,296   1,231   1,231
 China       na     na     na :  0.02    0.00    0.00 : 301.24  294.92  288.84
 Argentina   na     na     na : 37.00   29.50   36.26 :  53.00   50.00   51.00
 S.Africa    na     na     na :  2.20    1.90    2.27 :  16.50   17.06   13.43
Cotton     4.20   4.00   3.15 : 43.77   42.39   44.32 : 119.43  118.48  112.55
All Wheat   926    855    696 :219.76  210.49  222.24 : 842.17  800.81  792.35
 China       na     na     na :  1.00    1.02    1.01 : 140.07  140.10  136.59
European
    Union    na     na     na : 32.50   27.87   38.01 : 144.00  122.15  135.38
 Canada      na     na     na : 28.00   29.28   25.44 :  39.96   35.94   33.41
 Argentina   na     na     na : 16.00   13.31    8.23 :  27.50   18.51   15.85
 Australia   na     na     na : 27.00   23.69   19.84 :  37.00   34.11   25.96
 Russia      na     na     na : 44.00   43.00   55.50 :  89.50   81.60   91.50
 Ukraine     na     na     na : 14.00   15.75   18.58 :  23.00   23.40   23.00
Sorghum    42.0   40.0   33.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na
Barley     70.0   69.0   78.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na
Oats       33.0   28.0   36.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na
Rice       49.3   53.9   39.8 : 63.50   60.89   56.76 : 541.16  541.30  523.98
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
  Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the
government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal Survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
                    Monday’s                                USDA
                    Estimate      Average     Range       December
Corn Production      17,021.0        16,544   16.353-16.724  16,752
Corn Yield              186.5         183.9    182.0-185.3    186.0
Harvested Acres          91.3          89.9     89.3-90.4      90.0
Soybean Production    4,262.0         4,232    4,176-4,296    4,253
Soybean Yield            53.0          52.7     51.9-53.5      53.0
Harvested Acres          80.4          80.3     80.0-80.4      80.3
****
U.S. 2025-26 Stockpiles (million bushels)
                   Monday’s                              USDA
                     Estimate     Average     Range      December
Corn                   2,227.0       1,982   1,772-2,235    2,029
Soybeans                 350.0         301     245-375        290
Wheat                    926.0         897     876-925        901
****
World 2025-26 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
                     Monday’s
                     Estimate      Average       Range         USDA Dec.
Corn                    290.9         280.0      277.0-283.0      279.2
Soybeans                124.4        123.1      121.8-124.0      122.4
Wheat                   278.3        276.2      275.2-277.7      274.9
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 12
WA_GR101
Washington, DC    Mon   Jan 12, 2026   USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 08, 2026
                            — METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS
             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR
  GRAIN      01/08/2026  01/01/2026  01/09/2025    TO DATE     TO DATE
BARLEY              0           0         599        5,873        9,207
CORN        1,489,936   1,321,461   1,441,006   28,426,802   17,707,196
FLAXSEED            0          48           0          384          264
MIXED               0           0           0            0          122
OATS                0           0           0        4,788          148
RYE                 0           0           0            0            0
SORGHUM       142,954     244,296         702    1,005,320    1,374,540
SOYBEANS    1,529,707     984,116   1,357,492   17,934,546   31,324,934
SUNFLOWER           0           0           0            0            0
WHEAT         317,465     183,476     310,667   15,581,440   13,068,382
Total       3,480,062   2,733,397   3,110,466   62,959,153   63,484,793
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 13
Source: CME Group
              Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity     Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL   January    Jan 14, 2026               30   Jan 12, 2026
ROUGH RICE    January    Jan 14, 2026                6   Jan 12, 2026
SOYBEAN       January    Jan 14, 2026               26   Jan 08, 2026
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower yesterday on selling tied to the USDA reports.  USDA released its Winter Wheat seedings report that showed increased planted are for SRW and reduced White Winter Wheat seedings.  HRW seedings were unchanged from a year ago.  Ending stocks were also increased for the US and the world, so the report was considered bearish.  Ending stocks estimates and the quarterly stocks estimates were on the high side of expectations.  The daily charts still display the potential for significant bottoms, but the outside day down on the daily charts draws those ideas into question.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 500, 494, and 488 March, with resistance at 528, 530, and 536 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 508, 503, and 499 March, with resistance at 536, 540, and 545 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was a little higher yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports.  The market might have finished a bottom formation on the daily and weekly charts.  USDA cut its production estimate for All Rice but left Long Grain production higher than last month.  Domestic demand was increased and exports were cut for all classes.  Ending stocks were reduced.  The average farm price was increased for all Rice but left unchanged for Long Grain.  The report appears to be neutral to bullish for Rice prices.  The recent selling appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Weaker world prices are expected by the FAO in the coming year.  Trends are mixed in the market.  Yields and quality in the US are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up.  Support is at 1002, 996, and 975 March and resistance is at 1051, 1056, and 1065 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments:  Corn was sharply lower in response to the USDA reports.  USDA increased  production by raising harvested area and trimming yields  and increased ending stocks through the increased production and a smaller increase in demand.  The demand for export and for bio energy needs has held strong, but the export demand was cut back in the WASDE reports even ad feed demand remained untouched.  Traders had expected a cut to the feed demand.  Trends are down.  Temperatures should average near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down.  Support is at 420, 417, and 414 March, and resistance is at 426, 436, and 446 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down.  Support is at 284, 278, and 27\5 March, and resistance is at 317, 320, and 326 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports.  Production was increased as was domestic demand.  Export demand was cut back and ending stocks were increased.  Brazil production was increased.  It seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there now underway.  US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico.  Temperatures will average near to above normal in the Midwest today and tomorrow, then near to below normal the rest of this week.
Overnight News:  China bought 168,000 tons of US Soybeans and Mexico bought 152,404 tons of US Soybeaans.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1041, 1033, and 1030 March, and resistance is at 1071, 1082, and  1086 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 295.00, 292.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 307.00, 311.00, and 316.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up.  Support is at 4840, 4810, and 4750 March, with resistance at 5090, 5120, and 5200 March
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were slightly lower last week but closed higher today.  There are still ideas of increasing supplies available to the market along with weaker demand.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now with some looking for weaker demand and other looking for improved demand.   Canola was lower on the price action in Chicago.  There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 616.00, 600.00, and 590.00 March, with resistance at 638.00, 644.00, and 650.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3880, 3820, and 3760 March, with resistance at 4130, 4160, and 4200 March.
DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports 1.32M Tons; Up 8.5%, MPOB Says
    Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 8.5% on month at 1.32 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:
                            December     November          Change
                                                         On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output      1,829,761    1,935,510   Dn      5.46%
Palm Oil Exports           1,316,522    1,213,130   Up      8.52%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports      100,224       87,265   Up     14.85%
Palm Oil Imports              33,292       23,176   Up     43.64%
Closing Stocks             3,050,598    2,835,578   Up      7.58%
Crude Palm Oil             1,821,853    1,742,993   Up      4.52%
Processed Palm Oil         1,228,745    1,092,585   Up     12.46%
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 13
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1030.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1035.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1042.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1050.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1045.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1035.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1040.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1047.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1055.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1050.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          1010.00     +07.50      Unquoted    –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          1007.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          4,050.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           423.00     +03.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.055)
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