We are finishing out the first week of January and as I look at the AP Poll for men’s basketball, my Huskers are ranked No. 10. At 15-0 (hopefully 16-0 of you’re reading this after Saturday), they have the best start to any University of Nebraska men’s basketball team on record and the highest ranking in 60 years. Yes, you read that right. To say they have started the season off strong is an understatement. As we look at the ags this week, we say mostly higher trade, with exception to the nearby live cattle contract and spring wheat. We have also seen a strong start to the year. Still, it is just the first week of the year. Unlike the Huskers, who have beaten a couple ranked teams already, the true test is going to come on Monday, with arguably the biggest report day of the USDA calendar.
Corn continues to ride the choppy pattern, as March was back up 8 ¼ cents this week. Export Inspections data backed off to 1.2 MMT of corn shipped in the week of January 1, with marketing year shipments now 64.83% above a year ago at 26.81 MMT. EIA updated ethanol production data this week with 1.098 million barrels per day of ethanol production in the week of 1/2, backing off 22,000 bpd from the week prior. Stocks were up another 708,000 barrels to 22.652 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Thursday showed just 377,598 MT of corn sold in the week of January 1. Export commitments are now 50.895 MMT, which is 63% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 61% average. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money back to a net short of 16,426 contracts as of January 6, a reduction of 7,158 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was mixed around this week, as the winter wheat were the bulls and spring wheat the bear. Kansas City was back up 15 1/4 cents this week, as March Chicago was 10 3/4 cents in the red. March MPLS spring wheat 3 1/4 cents lower. Export Inspections fell to 183,305 MT in the week of 1/1 with accumulated shipments at 15.26 MMT (+19.64% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 1 was just 118,701 MT. That takes export commitments to 20.23 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and matching the average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of January 6 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 12,539 contracts to their net short at 107,165 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 2,664 contracts to 15,655 contracts in that week.
Soybeans bounced back this week, as March was back up 16 ¾ cents in the first week of 2026. Products were stronger this week, as March soybean meal was down $7.70/ton on the week, with bean oil 39 points higher. USDA export inspections showed soybean shipments improving to 980,518 MT in the week of January 1. Marketing year shipments at 16.4 MMT are down 45.3% from the same period last year. Export Sales data showed 877,914 MT sold in the week ending on January 1. Commitments are now 28.58 MMT, which is 64% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 82% average paces. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting another 26,845 contracts from their net long to 57,717 contracts by January 6.
Live cattle were weaker this week, as February was down $2.27. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $232-233 sales, steady to $1 higher. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $4.625 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $17.68 week/week to $367.90. An update from APHIS this showed another active bovine case in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US. Wholesale boxed beef prices bounced this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $3.46. Choice boxes were up $5.66/cwt (1.6%) on the week to $355.63, as Select was $5.25 (1.5%) higher at $352.17 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 16.4% above the week prior but down 5.2% from the same week last year at 493.3 million lbs. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 94,761 contracts as of January 6 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 1,786 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 16,838 contracts on that date, an addition of 1,543 contracts on the week.
Hogs saw another round of back and forth trade, as February was back up $1.20 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was $1.28 lower this week at $80.98 as of January 7. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $2.25 (-2.4%) this week to $92.32/cwt. The belly was the only primal reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 5.9% from the same week last year at 586 million lbs, which was well above the holiday week prior. CFTC data had spec traders increasing their net long by another 2,937 contracts to 81,858 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 6.
Cotton futures bounced back this week, as March was 40 points in the green from last Friday. Export Sales from the week of 1/1 were tallied at 98,031 RB, with shipments at 154,036 RB. Total commitment are now 6.6 million RB, which is 57% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 77% average pace. Commitment of Traders data is up to date through January 6, with spec funds in cotton futures and options cutting 1,306 contracts from their net short position of 47,772 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.91 cents/lb on Friday morning, up 21 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
We start next week with some likely fireworks, with USDA releasing the Annual Crop Production, Winter Wheat Seedings, quarterly Grain Stocks, and monthly WASDE reports on Monday morning. Export Inspection data will also be out on Monday morning per the usual schedule. Tuesday will see the release of the monthly CPI data, with PPI out on Wednesday. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning, with the middle of the week also the expiration of January soybeans, soy meal and bean oil. USDA will release Export Sales data on Thursday, with NOPA out on that morning as well.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans spiked an uptrend off the August and October lows last Friday, but ended up holding for a hammer bottom candlestick. We’ve gotten some follow through off of that, getting to the 18-day moving average at $10.63 ¾, though we struggled to get above it this week. Futures also found resistance at the 1/3 speedline on Friday at $10.68. Of course, after riding the Chinses purchases up and the recent collapse down, we have spent the better part of the last two weeks consolidating. That sets us up for the USDA reports on Monday. Stochastics are leaning bullish, with MACD flipping bullish recently on a high ADX. That would leave some upward bias if we can break through resistance, and USDA can give us something bullish to talk about.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Strong Start. Ag Marketing Report 01/12/2025
We are finishing out the first week of January and as I look at the AP Poll for men’s basketball, my Huskers are ranked No. 10. At 15-0 (hopefully 16-0 of you’re reading this after Saturday), they have the best start to any University of Nebraska men’s basketball team on record and the highest ranking in 60 years. Yes, you read that right. To say they have started the season off strong is an understatement. As we look at the ags this week, we say mostly higher trade, with exception to the nearby live cattle contract and spring wheat. We have also seen a strong start to the year. Still, it is just the first week of the year. Unlike the Huskers, who have beaten a couple ranked teams already, the true test is going to come on Monday, with arguably the biggest report day of the USDA calendar.
Corn continues to ride the choppy pattern, as March was back up 8 ¼ cents this week. Export Inspections data backed off to 1.2 MMT of corn shipped in the week of January 1, with marketing year shipments now 64.83% above a year ago at 26.81 MMT. EIA updated ethanol production data this week with 1.098 million barrels per day of ethanol production in the week of 1/2, backing off 22,000 bpd from the week prior. Stocks were up another 708,000 barrels to 22.652 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Thursday showed just 377,598 MT of corn sold in the week of January 1. Export commitments are now 50.895 MMT, which is 63% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 61% average. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money back to a net short of 16,426 contracts as of January 6, a reduction of 7,158 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was mixed around this week, as the winter wheat were the bulls and spring wheat the bear. Kansas City was back up 15 1/4 cents this week, as March Chicago was 10 3/4 cents in the red. March MPLS spring wheat 3 1/4 cents lower. Export Inspections fell to 183,305 MT in the week of 1/1 with accumulated shipments at 15.26 MMT (+19.64% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 1 was just 118,701 MT. That takes export commitments to 20.23 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and matching the average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of January 6 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 12,539 contracts to their net short at 107,165 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 2,664 contracts to 15,655 contracts in that week.
Soybeans bounced back this week, as March was back up 16 ¾ cents in the first week of 2026. Products were stronger this week, as March soybean meal was down $7.70/ton on the week, with bean oil 39 points higher. USDA export inspections showed soybean shipments improving to 980,518 MT in the week of January 1. Marketing year shipments at 16.4 MMT are down 45.3% from the same period last year. Export Sales data showed 877,914 MT sold in the week ending on January 1. Commitments are now 28.58 MMT, which is 64% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 82% average paces. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting another 26,845 contracts from their net long to 57,717 contracts by January 6.
Live cattle were weaker this week, as February was down $2.27. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $232-233 sales, steady to $1 higher. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $4.625 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $17.68 week/week to $367.90. An update from APHIS this showed another active bovine case in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US. Wholesale boxed beef prices bounced this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $3.46. Choice boxes were up $5.66/cwt (1.6%) on the week to $355.63, as Select was $5.25 (1.5%) higher at $352.17 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 16.4% above the week prior but down 5.2% from the same week last year at 493.3 million lbs. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 94,761 contracts as of January 6 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 1,786 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 16,838 contracts on that date, an addition of 1,543 contracts on the week.
Hogs saw another round of back and forth trade, as February was back up $1.20 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was $1.28 lower this week at $80.98 as of January 7. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $2.25 (-2.4%) this week to $92.32/cwt. The belly was the only primal reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 5.9% from the same week last year at 586 million lbs, which was well above the holiday week prior. CFTC data had spec traders increasing their net long by another 2,937 contracts to 81,858 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 6.
Cotton futures bounced back this week, as March was 40 points in the green from last Friday. Export Sales from the week of 1/1 were tallied at 98,031 RB, with shipments at 154,036 RB. Total commitment are now 6.6 million RB, which is 57% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 77% average pace. Commitment of Traders data is up to date through January 6, with spec funds in cotton futures and options cutting 1,306 contracts from their net short position of 47,772 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.91 cents/lb on Friday morning, up 21 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
We start next week with some likely fireworks, with USDA releasing the Annual Crop Production, Winter Wheat Seedings, quarterly Grain Stocks, and monthly WASDE reports on Monday morning. Export Inspection data will also be out on Monday morning per the usual schedule. Tuesday will see the release of the monthly CPI data, with PPI out on Wednesday. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning, with the middle of the week also the expiration of January soybeans, soy meal and bean oil. USDA will release Export Sales data on Thursday, with NOPA out on that morning as well.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans spiked an uptrend off the August and October lows last Friday, but ended up holding for a hammer bottom candlestick. We’ve gotten some follow through off of that, getting to the 18-day moving average at $10.63 ¾, though we struggled to get above it this week. Futures also found resistance at the 1/3 speedline on Friday at $10.68. Of course, after riding the Chinses purchases up and the recent collapse down, we have spent the better part of the last two weeks consolidating. That sets us up for the USDA reports on Monday. Stochastics are leaning bullish, with MACD flipping bullish recently on a high ADX. That would leave some upward bias if we can break through resistance, and USDA can give us something bullish to talk about.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.