About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Visit Website →

Softs Report 01/12/2026

By On January 12, 2026 - 9:12 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was a little higher in trading before the USDA reports that will be released on Monday.  .  The market expects production near 14.20 million bales and ending stocks near 4.56 million bales.  World production is estimated at 119.46 million bales and ending stocks are estimated at 75.62 million bales.  The markets had waited for the US Supreme Court to rule on the Trump tariffs on Friday but the court did not make a decision yet.  Commercials have been buying futures in recent weeks.  Farmers are not selling too much due to price, but buyers are hard to find.  The weekly export sales report was poor.  The lack of demand seems to be part of the price for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.70, 63.00, and 62.40 March, with resistance of 65.90, 66.40 and 67.20 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   366,974
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   49,199   100,290   101,688   110,668   119,216    88,123    34,013   349,678   355,207:   17,295    11,767
    : Changes from: December 30, 2025          (Change in open interest:      14,190)         :
    :       53      -408     3,831     6,559    11,181       703       153    11,146    14,758:    3,045      -567
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     13.4      27.3      27.7      30.2      32.5      24.0       9.3      95.3      96.8:      4.7       3.2
    : Total Traders:   375          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :      110       128       118        76        59        41        24       297       266:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were higher last week as the rally continued.  Chart trends are still up.  There is no freeze in the forecast, but areas north of the state have been very cold.  Florida has also been dry and irrigation is needed.  Traders are worried about demand even with overall lower prices.  The weather is considered good for production in Brazil and Mexico.  Scattered showers are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 193.00, 184.00, and 174.00 March, with resistance at 226.00, 230.00, and 240.00 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 6, 2026
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :
CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    11,047                :
: Positions                                                                                                    :
:    4,054     3,265       298       244       189     1,653     4,427       181     1,988       182       954 :
: Changes from:     December 30, 2025                                                                          :
:     -137        -6         4        19         6        46        34        16       -30        75       207 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :
:     36.7      29.6       2.7       2.2       1.7      15.0      40.1       1.6      18.0       1.6       8.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    52                     :
:       11        10         .         .         .         5        16         4        10         .         5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York was a little higher and London was a little lower last week, and trends are still up in New York on the daily charts and are still mixed on the daily report in London.  There are still ideas and reports of increasing harvest sales from Vietnam.  There are reports of very good conditions in Brazil that has caused some farm selling in recent days, but most are holding for better prices.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has scattered showers lately and conditions there are called good.  Vietnamese producers are selling.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 306.36 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 353.00, 345.00, and 339.00 March, and resistance is at 385.00, 390.00 and 400.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 3860, 3730, and 3670 March, with resistance at 4070, 4100, and 4190 .
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   203,506
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   37,358    17,562    62,772    51,811   107,381    43,490     8,602   195,431   196,318:    8,075     7,188
    : Changes from: December 30, 2025          (Change in open interest:       7,470)         :
    :    3,583    -1,119       902     1,821     7,044     1,129       426     7,435     7,253:       34       216
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     18.4       8.6      30.8      25.5      52.8      21.4       4.2      96.0      96.5:      4.0       3.5
    : Total Traders:   362          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :      101        87       115        94       109        43        21       300       279:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York was lower and London was higher last week.  New York turned down after tradimg violently between 1500 and 1600 March and London has maintained trading range in the weekly charts.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increase supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1450, 1440, and 1410 March and resistance is at 1510, 1540, and 1560 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 404.00 March, with resistance at 431.00, 437.00, and 445.00 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,101,827
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   74,373   245,129   276,811   395,973   400,952   275,982    96,054 1,023,139 1,018,946:   78,687    82,881
    : Changes from: December 30, 2025          (Change in open interest:      23,286)         :
    :   -5,065     6,589    13,680    11,758     3,953     4,333     1,738    24,705    25,960:   -1,419    -2,674
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :      6.8      22.2      25.1      35.9      36.4      25.0       8.7      92.9      92.5:      7.1       7.5
    : Total Traders:   253          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       56        76        89        71        67        37        20       219       199:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed lower last week.  Short term trends are down after a sharp move lower on Friday.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Cocoa bean arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast fell 3.4% between Oct 1 and January 4 versus the same period last season. This might be partly down to unusual rain in December.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 5270, 5200, and 5140 March, with resistance at 5790, 6970, and 6232 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3530 March, with resistance at 4200, 4290, and 4530 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   162,817
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   26,932    27,316    50,954    51,758    64,140    24,045    10,804   153,689   153,214:    9,128     9,604
    : Changes from: December 30, 2025          (Change in open interest:       4,295)         :
    :      -31      -384     1,423     1,287     2,931     1,160       277     3,839     4,247:      456        48
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     16.5      16.8      31.3      31.8      39.4      14.8       6.6      94.4      94.1:      5.6       5.9
    : Total Traders:   192          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       42        69        80        37        36        31        19       160       158:
——————————————————————————————————————-
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
Tagged with: • • • • • • •