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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/12/2026

By Jack Scoville On January 12, 2026 - 9:34 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand

The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Monday.

U.S. Corn, Soybean Production

(Production in million bushels)

(Yield in bushels per acre)

(Harvested area in million acres)

U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)

USDA USDA

Average Range December 2024-2025

Corn Production 16,544 16,353-16,724 16,752 14,892

Corn Yield 183.9 182.0-185.3 186.0 179.3

Harvested Acres 89.9 89.3-90.4 90.0 83.0

Soybean Production 4,232 4,176-4,296 4,253 4,374

Soybean Yield 52.7 51.9-53.5 53.0 50.7

Harvested Acres 80.3 80.0-80.4 80.3 86.2

****

U.S. 2025-26 Stockpiles (millions)

USDA USDA

Average Range December 2024-25

Corn 1,982 1,772-2,235 2,029 1,532

Soybeans 301 245-375 290 316

Wheat 897 876-925 901 851

****

World 2025-26 Stockpiles (million metric tons)

2025-26 USDA

Average Range December

Corn 280.0 277.0-283.0 279.2

Soybeans 123.1 121.8-124.0 122.4

Wheat 276.2 275.2-277.7 274.9

****

U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2025 (million bushels)

USDA USDA

Average Range Sept. 2025 Dec. 2024

Corn 13,040 12,275-13,369 1,532 12,075

Soybeans 3,296 3,120-3,445 316 3,100

Wheat 1,636 1,590-1,696 2,120 1,573

****

U.S. 2026 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates

Average Range USDA 2025

All Winter Wheat 32.3 31.0-33.4 33.2

Hard Red Winter 23.0 22.0-24.0 23.5

Soft Red Winter 5.9 5.5-6.1 6.1

White Winter 3.5 3.2-3.7 3.6

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 12

Source: CME Group

Contract Quantity Next Trade

Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 13, 2026 2 Dec 26, 2025

ROUGH RICE January Jan 13, 2026 39 Jan 09, 2026

SOYBEAN January Jan 13, 2026 33 Jan 07, 2026

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative buying. The daily charts display the potential for significant bottoms. USDA will issue its final 3035 crop reports today and the market anticipates neutral to negative price reactions. There are still reports of big world production and weaker demand. Demand ideas are under pressure from ideas and reports of big competition for sales. The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent. World prices were steady due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south. Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 500, 494, and 488 March, with resistance at 525, 530, and 536 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 508, 503, and 499 March, with resistance at 536, 540, and 550 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 561,426

: Positions :

: 75,870 185,520 177,327 128,101 84,524 143,775 82,577 525,073 529,947: 36,353 31,479

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 (Change in open interest: 16,836) :

: -3,228 11,433 5,615 6,531 -5,791 4,410 4,018 13,328 15,275: 3,508 1,561

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 13.5 33.0 31.6 22.8 15.1 25.6 14.7 93.5 94.4: 6.5 5.6

: Total Traders: 393 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 109 111 123 93 94 42 32 297 309:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 314,325

: Positions :

: 53,699 71,296 75,669 63,027 103,451 103,256 41,830 295,651 292,246: 18,674 22,079

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 (Change in open interest: 7,375) :

: 6,678 1,307 1,310 -1,296 2,720 -673 2,814 6,020 8,153: 1,355 -777

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 17.1 22.7 24.1 20.1 32.9 32.8 13.3 94.1 93.0: 5.9 7.0

: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 53 71 70 64 69 36 22 196 192:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 6, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :

CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 69,063 :

: Positions :

: 33,844 20,808 4,380 1,532 533 8,861 28,665 2,843 3,986 457 4,686 :

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 :

: -414 -784 397 202 -75 -857 -38 138 140 -1 383 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 49.0 30.1 6.3 2.2 0.8 12.8 41.5 4.1 5.8 0.7 6.8 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 99 :

: 37 33 4 . 4 10 22 10 8 . 7 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:

General Comments Rice was higher last week and might have finished a bottom formation on the daily and weekly charts. The recent selling appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India. Weaker world prices are expected by the FAO in the coming year. Trends are mixed in the market. Yields and quality in the US are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1013, 996, and 975 March and resistance is at 1051, 1056, and 1065 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 6, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :

CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,886 :

: Positions :

: 7,032 2,501 160 186 0 1,325 7,418 16 1,670 885 951 :

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 :

: -390 190 0 -7 0 61 -463 16 58 -361 93 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 50.6 18.0 1.2 1.3 0.0 9.5 53.4 0.1 12.0 6.4 6.9 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 81 :

: 21 12 . . 0 7 23 . 11 9 8 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was higher last week. USDA will issue its production and supply and demand reports this morning. The demand for export and for bio energy needs has held strong, but the amount of feed demand shown by USDA Has been questioned due to the reduced US cattle herds. Trends are mixed. Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well. Feed demand inside the US should be less. Reports indicate that many elevators are holding less Corn than expected. Temperatures should average near to above normal next week. Oats were higher.

Overnight News: South Korea bought 204,000 tons of US Corn and unknown destinations bought 310,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 435, 432, and 430 March, and resistance is at 453, 457, and 460 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 284, 278, and 27\5 March, and resistance is at 317, 320, and 326 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,915,459

: Positions :

: 160,071 286,185 540,541 599,793 772,593 421,547 125,040 1,721,953 1,724,360: 193,506 191,099

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 (Change in open interest: 4,971) :

: 7,443 4,697 -822 -7,251 6,847 -926 575 -1,556 11,297: 6,527 -6,326

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 8.4 14.9 28.2 31.3 40.3 22.0 6.5 89.9 90.0: 10.1 10.0

: Total Traders: 804 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 134 153 190 356 380 50 30 645 658:

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher last week on Chinese buying interest. There is a lot of concern about the USDA reports coming today and also the Supreme Court rulings that could have included rulings of the Trump tariffs but didn’t. It seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there just weeks away. The Trump administration says that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February, and China has already bought at least 10 million tons. US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico. Temperatures will average near to above normal in the Midwest this week.

Overnight News:

Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1041, 1033, and 1030 March, and resistance is at 1071, 1082, and 1086 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 295.00, 292.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 307.00, 311.00, and 316.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4840, 4810, and 4750 March, with resistance at 5040, 5120, and 5200 March

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 961,910

: Positions :

: 107,411 85,512 259,961 309,106 503,053 222,308 36,532 898,786 885,058: 63,124 76,851

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 (Change in open interest: 23,333) :

: -6,459 7,677 18,842 10,800 -12,843 2,036 6,859 25,218 20,535: -1,885 2,798

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 11.2 8.9 27.0 32.1 52.3 23.1 3.8 93.4 92.0: 6.6 8.0

: Total Traders: 603 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 135 120 167 218 255 48 28 490 495:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 701,858

: Positions :

: 39,981 146,630 204,489 268,779 279,489 159,652 40,823 672,902 671,432: 28,956 30,426

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 (Change in open interest: 12,508) :

: -152 -8,531 8,155 769 8,033 3,300 5,405 12,071 13,061: 437 -553

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 5.7 20.9 29.1 38.3 39.8 22.7 5.8 95.9 95.7: 4.1 4.3

: Total Traders: 366 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 72 109 123 109 97 42 26 294 294:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 06, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 551,228

: Positions :

: 71,613 100,475 117,552 198,747 271,224 116,507 28,850 504,418 518,101: 46,810 33,127

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 (Change in open interest: 5,721) :

: -3,659 1,929 3,894 2,676 -5,886 1,826 4,956 4,737 4,892: 984 829

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 13.0 18.2 21.3 36.1 49.2 21.1 5.2 91.5 94.0: 8.5 6.0

: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 67 82 97 116 117 36 22 274 273:

——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA

General Comments: Palm Oil futures were slightly lower last week but closed higher today. There are still ideas of increasing supplies available to the market along with weaker demand. There are still ideas of increasing production. Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now with some looking for weaker demand and other looking for improved demand. Canola was higher on reports of stronger demand. There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 616.00, 600.00, and 590.00 March, with resistance at 638.00, 644.00, and 650.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3820, and 3760 March, with resistance at 4130, 4160, and 4200 March.

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports 1.32M Tons; Up 8.5%, MPOB Says

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 8.5% on month at 1.32 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:

December November Change

On Month

Crude Palm Oil Output 1,829,761 1,935,510 Dn 5.46%

Palm Oil Exports 1,316,522 1,213,130 Up 8.52%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports 100,224 87,265 Up 14.85%

Palm Oil Imports 33,292 23,176 Up 43.64%

Closing Stocks 3,050,598 2,835,578 Up 7.58%

Crude Palm Oil 1,821,853 1,742,993 Up 4.52%

Processed Palm Oil 1,228,745 1,092,585 Up 12.46%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 6, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :

CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 24,402 :

: Positions :

: 19,206 19,379 964 2,033 660 0 810 30 3,176 1,124 366 :

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 :

: -1,525 -2,179 -482 -16 -104 0 0 0 -88 100 0 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 78.7 79.4 4.0 8.3 2.7 0.0 3.3 0.1 13.0 4.6 1.5 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :

: 9 7 . 6 . 0 . . 5 4 . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 6, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :

CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 271,818 :

: Positions :

: 165,932 79,890 14,997 4,017 3,958 34,049 130,180 21,825 14,944 15,495 11,962 :

: Changes from: December 30, 2025 :

: -6,476 -6,964 -749 1,633 119 -729 2,799 -6,483 1,454 -3,772 -457 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 61.0 29.4 5.5 1.5 1.5 12.5 47.9 8.0 5.5 5.7 4.4 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 308 :

: 52 63 7 5 5 25 69 26 57 61 43 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 12

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Jan 1030.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Feb 1040.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Mar 1045.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1055.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –

Jul/Aug/Sep 1050.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Jan 1035.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Feb 1045.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Mar 1050.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1060.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –

Jul/Aug/Sep 1055.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Jan 1002.50 00.00 Unquoted – –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Jan 1000.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Jan 4,050.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Jan 420.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –

($1=MYR4.062)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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