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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 01/09/2026

By On January 9, 2026 - 10:07 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ World Food Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Month, U.N. FAO Says
  By Giulia Petroni
  Global food prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in December, when declines in dairy and meat outweighed gains in cereals and sugar, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
  The FAO’s food price index–which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities–averaged 124.3 points in December, down 0.6% from November and more than 22% below the March 2022 peak after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  Dairy prices fell 4.4% last month, led by sharp declines in butter prices due to seasonally higher cream supplies in Europe and ample inventories, while skimmed-milk powder and cheese prices declined more modestly. Despite the December drop, dairy prices  averaged 13% higher in 2025 as a whole, reflecting strong price gains earlier in the year that were driven by robust global demand and constrained supplies, particularly for cheese, butter and whole-milk powder.
  Meat prices fell 1.3% from November levels. World bovine meat prices declined as dry conditions in Australia triggered herd destocking, boosting cattle availability, while poultry meat prices fell as ample export supplies outweighed global import demand. Despite the monthly drop, annual meat prices averaged 5.1% higher than in 2024, reflecting strong global import demand and market uncertainty linked to animal disease outbreaks and geopolitical tensions.
  Vegetable-oil prices fell 0.2% in December to a six-month low, with declines in world prices of soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils more than offsetting increases in palm-oil quotations. Full-year prices, however, averaged 17% higher than in 2024, marking a three-year high amid tight global supplies.
  Cereals climbed 1.7% last month, buoyed by renewed concerns over Black Sea wheat export flows, robust import demand for maize, strong domestic ethanol production in both Brazil and the U.S., and higher prices across all rice market segments. For 2025 as a whole, the price index averaged 4.9% below its 2024 level, marking its third consecutive annual decline and the lowest annual average since 2020.
  Sugar prices rebounded last month, rising 2.4% after three straight months of declines, due to a sharp drop in production across Brazil’s key growing regions. However, expectations of ample global sugar supplies this season, bolstered by solid harvest progress and favorable production prospects in India, helped cap gains in world prices. Sugar prices for the year fell 17%, with the index recording its lowest annual value since 2020, amid strong export availability.
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was a little lower again.  Speculators were also the best sellers as the up tr4end has failed and trends are sideway again.  The stronger prices in internal markets in China are supporting ideas of new demand for US Cotton.  Commercials have also been buying futures in recent weeks.  Farmers are not selling too much due to price, but buyers are hard to find.  The weekly export sales report was poor.  The lack of demand seems to be part of the price for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 64.40, 63.70, and 63.00 March, with resistance of 65.90, 66.40 and 67.20 March.
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were lower yesterday in consolidation trading.  Chart trends are still up.  There is no freeze in the forecast, but areas north of the state have been very cold.  Florida has also been dry and irrigation is needed.  Traders are worried about demand even with overall lower prices.  The weather is considered good for production in Brazil and Mexico.  Scattered showers are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 207.00, 193.00, and 184.00 March, with resistance at 230.00, 240.00, and 2a50.00 March.
March
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were mostly a little lower yesterday, and trends are still up in New York on the daily charts and are still mixed on the daily report in London.  There are still ideas and reports of increasing harvest sales from Vietnam.  There are reports of very good conditions in Brazil that has caused some farm selling in recent days, but most are holding for better prices.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has scattered showers lately and conditions there are called good.  Vietnamese producers are selling.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 306.36 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 359.00, 353.00, and 345.00 March, and resistance is at 382.00, 385.00 and 390.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 3880, 3730, and 3670 March, with resistance at 4100, 4190, and 4270 .
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were About unchanged yesterday.  New York continues to trade violently between 1500 and 1600 March and London has maintained trading range in the weekly charts.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increase supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1450, 1440, and 1410 March and resistance is at 1510, 1540, and 1560 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 404.00 March, with resistance at 431.00, 437.00, and 445.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed higher yesterday.  Short term trends are mixed.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Cocoa bean arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast fell 3.4% between Oct 1 and January 4 versus the same period last season. This might be partly down to unusual rain in December.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 5760, 5270, and 5200 March, with resistance at 6340, 6480, and 6710 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4150, 3830, and 3650 March, with resistance at 4530, 4620, and 4860 March.
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