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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/09/2026

By On January 9, 2026 - 10:13 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ World Food Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Month, U.N. FAO Says
  By Giulia Petroni
  Global food prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in December, when declines in dairy and meat outweighed gains in cereals and sugar, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
  The FAO’s food price index–which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities–averaged 124.3 points in December, down 0.6% from November and more than 22% below the March 2022 peak after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  Dairy prices fell 4.4% last month, led by sharp declines in butter prices due to seasonally higher cream supplies in Europe and ample inventories, while skimmed-milk powder and cheese prices declined more modestly. Despite the December drop, dairy prices  averaged 13% higher in 2025 as a whole, reflecting strong price gains earlier in the year that were driven by robust global demand and constrained supplies, particularly for cheese, butter and whole-milk powder.
  Meat prices fell 1.3% from November levels. World bovine meat prices declined as dry conditions in Australia triggered herd destocking, boosting cattle availability, while poultry meat prices fell as ample export supplies outweighed global import demand. Despite the monthly drop, annual meat prices averaged 5.1% higher than in 2024, reflecting strong global import demand and market uncertainty linked to animal disease outbreaks and geopolitical tensions.
  Vegetable-oil prices fell 0.2% in December to a six-month low, with declines in world prices of soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils more than offsetting increases in palm-oil quotations. Full-year prices, however, averaged 17% higher than in 2024, marking a three-year high amid tight global supplies.
  Cereals climbed 1.7% last month, buoyed by renewed concerns over Black Sea wheat export flows, robust import demand for maize, strong domestic ethanol production in both Brazil and the U.S., and higher prices across all rice market segments. For 2025 as a whole, the price index averaged 4.9% below its 2024 level, marking its third consecutive annual decline and the lowest annual average since 2020.
  Sugar prices rebounded last month, rising 2.4% after three straight months of declines, due to a sharp drop in production across Brazil’s key growing regions. However, expectations of ample global sugar supplies this season, bolstered by solid harvest progress and favorable production prospects in India, helped cap gains in world prices. Sugar prices for the year fell 17%, with the index recording its lowest annual value since 2020, amid strong export availability.
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 9
Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL   January    Jan 12, 2026               52   Dec 17, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL    January    Jan 12, 2026              166   Jan 08, 2026
ROUGH RICE     January    Jan 12, 2026              119   Jan 07, 2026
SOYBEAN        January    Jan 12, 2026               84   Jan 07, 2026
DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
  The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Monday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
                                                       USDA      USDA
                            Average      Range      December 2024-2025
Corn Production              16,544 16,353-16,724     16,752    14,892
Corn Yield                    183.9  182.0-185.3       186.0     179.3
Harvested Acres                89.9   89.3-90.4         90.0      83.0
Soybean Production            4,232  4,176-4,296       4,253     4,374
Soybean Yield                  52.7   51.9-53.5         53.0      50.7
Harvested Acres                80.3   80.0-80.4         80.3      86.2
****
U.S. 2025-26 Stockpiles (millions)
                                                     USDA        USDA
                          Average     Range       December     2024-25
Corn                       1,982   1,772-2,235       2,029       1,532
Soybeans                     301     245-375           290         316
Wheat                        897     876-925           901         851
****
World 2025-26 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2025-26                                                  USDA
                               Average     Range      December
Corn                             280.0  277.0-283.0      279.2
Soybeans                         123.1  121.8-124.0      122.4
Wheat                            276.2  275.2-277.7      274.9
****
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2025 (million bushels)
                                                  USDA       USDA
                     Average     Range         Sept. 2025   Dec. 2024
Corn                  13,040   12,275-13,369     1,532       12,075
Soybeans               3,296    3,120-3,445        316        3,100
Wheat                  1,636    1,590-1,696      2,120        1,573
****
U.S. 2026 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
                                Average     Range    USDA 2025
All Winter Wheat                 32.3     31.0-33.4    33.2
Hard Red Winter                  23.0     22.0-24.0    23.5
Soft Red Winter                   5.9      5.5-6.1      6.1
White Winter                      3.5      3.2-3.7      3.6
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed a little higher yesterday on what appeared to be follow through buying.  The daily charts display the potential for significant bottoms.  There are still reports of big world production and weaker demand.  Demand ideas are under pressure from ideas and reports of big competition for sales.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices were steady due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 500, 494, and 488 March, with resistance at 525, 530, and 536 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 508, 503, and 499 March, with resistance at 536, 540, and 550 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower yesterday after rallying quite a bit in the new year.  The recent selling appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are mixed in the market.  Yields and quality in the US are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up.  Support is at 1025, 996, and 975 March and resistance is at 1051, 1056, and 1065 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments:  Corn was mostly a little higher yesterday.  The demand for export and for bio energy needs has held strong, but the amount of feed demand shown by USDA Has been questioned due to the reduced US cattle herds.  Trends are mixed.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Feed demand inside the US should be less.  Reports indicate that many elevators are holding less Corn than expected.  Temperatures should average near to above normal next week.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 435, 432, and 430 March, and resistance is at 453, 457, and 460 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 284, 278, and 27\5 March, and resistance is at 317, 320, and 326 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday despite talk of continued Chinese buying.  Soybean Oil was higher.  There is a lot of concern about the USDA reports coming early next week and also the Supreme Court rulings that could include rulings of the Trump tariffs.  It seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there just weeks away.  The Trump administration says that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February, and China has already bought at least 10 million tons.  US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico.  Temperatures will average near to above normal in the Midwest next week.
Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1041, 1033, and 1030 March, and resistance is at 1071, 1082, and  1086 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 295.00, 292.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 307.00, 311.00, and 316.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up.  Support is at 4840, 4810, and 4750 March, with resistance at 5040, 5120, and 5200 March
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were lower today on what was called profit taking.  There are still ideas of increasing supplies available to the market along with weaker demand.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now with some looking for weaker demand and other looking for improved demand.   Canola was higher.  There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 600.00, 590.00, and 584.00 March, with resistance at 626.00, 635.00, and 644.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3880, 3820, and 3760 March, with resistance at 4130, 4160, and 4200 March.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 9
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1025.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1030.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1035.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1042.50    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1040.00    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1030.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1035.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1040.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1047.50    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1045.00    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          1002.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          1002.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          4,030.00    +30.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           416.00     +01.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.063)
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