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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 01/05/2026

By On January 5, 2026 - 10:36 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was a little lower in holiday related range trading last week.  Futures were a little lower for the year.  Farmers are not selling too much due to price, but buyers are hard to find.  A lack of new Chinese demand has been important and a reason to see lower US prices.  The lack of demand seems to be part of the price for now but the demand is not a reason to see a rally anytime soon.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 62.00, 60.80, and 59.60 March, with resistance of 64.90, 65.40 and 65.90 March.
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 5
    For the week ended Dec 25, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
upland cotton      134.0        2.2    6499.6    7614.7   3667.3    474.6
pima cotton          3.1        0.0     199.3     240.4     58.0      0.0
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were higher last week but lower for the year.  Prices have rallied after cold weather hit the state of Florida and reminded everyone what time of the year it was.  There is no freeze in the forecast, but areas north of the state have been very cold.  Florida has also been dry and irrigation is needed.  Traders are worried about demand even with overall lower prices.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Scattered showers are reported in Brazil, but the amounts and coverage has been less than normal.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 190.00, 184.00, and 165.00 March, with resistance at 212.00, 223.00, and 230.00 March.
March
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York was lower and London was higher last week, and trends are mixed in New York on the daily charts and are now mixed on the daily report in London.  The charts do suggest that a move higher is coming.  There are still ideas and reports of increasing harvest sales from Vietnam.  There are reports of very good conditions in Brazil that has caused some farm selling in recent days, but most are holding for better prices.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has scattered showers lately and conditions there are called good.  Vietnamese producers are selling but only in small amounts.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 297.71 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 339.00, 334.00, and 330.00 March, and resistance is at 359.00, 365.00 and 371.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 3880, 3730, and 3670 March, with resistance at 4100, 4190, and 4270 .
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were lower last week.  New York continues to trade violently between 15a00 and 1600 March and London has maintained trading range in the weekly charts.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increase supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1450, 1440, and 1410 March and resistance is at 1510, 1540, and 1560 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 404.00 March, with resistance at 431.00, 437.00, and 44a5.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed almost unchanged last week.  Short term trends are mixed.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 5760, 5270, and 5200 March, with resistance at 6340, 6480, and 6710 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4150, 3830, and 3650 March, with resistance at 4530, 4620, and 4860 March.
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