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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/05/2026

By On January 5, 2026 - 10:38 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 5
    For the week ended Dec 25, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat               95.4        9.4   19997.2   16904.9   5106.8    111.6
  hrw                9.1        0.0    7316.3    3998.3   1524.1     15.5
  srw              -67.8        9.4    2726.0    2553.7    738.8     69.2
  hrs               39.2        0.0    5058.9    5524.9   1323.0      0.0
  white            128.4        0.0    4511.6    4492.0   1413.2     26.9
  durum            -13.5        0.0     384.4     336.0    107.7      0.0
corn               756.4        0.0   50537.6   38800.9  24500.1    851.2
soybeans          1177.7       66.4   27697.7   40031.7  12463.7    112.8
soymeal            110.6       41.8    8894.5    8304.2   5031.8     54.2
soyoil               6.2        0.0     263.9     564.8    148.7      4.0
upland cotton      134.0        2.2    6499.6    7614.7   3667.3    474.6
pima cotton          3.1        0.0     199.3     240.4     58.0      0.0
sorghum             62.6        0.0    2056.7    1116.8   1453.0      0.0
barley               0.0        0.0      69.1      30.3     35.3      0.0
rice                23.0        0.0    1398.9    1878.0    535.6      0.0
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 5
Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL   January    Jan 06, 2026               20   Nov 26, 2025
ROUGH RICE     January    Jan 06, 2026                4   Dec 30, 2025
SOYBEAN        January    Jan 06, 2026              401   Dec 30, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower again last week and for the year in holiday trading and on continued reports of big world production and weaker demand.  News that Russia had bombed Ukrainian ports over the previous weekend did not move the market much as the bombing has been heavy for a couple of weeks now.  Demand ideas are under pressure from ideas and reports of big competition for sales.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices were weaker last week due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.  Demand has been weaker for various origins including Russia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 500, 494, and 488 March, with resistance at 518, 525, and 530 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 508, 503, and 499 March, with resistance at 519, 536, and 540 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower last week and much lower for the year.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what they need to for now.  The recent selling appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are turning down in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down.  Support is at 958, 925, and 916 January and resistance is at 1004, 1021, and 1028 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments:  Corn was lower last week and for the year.  The demand for export and for bio energy needs has held strong.  Trends are mixed.  There have been ideas that traders expect weaker demand news from now on but demand overall has been very strong and above USDA projections until now.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Reports indicate that many elevators are holding less Corn than expected.  Temperatures should average above normal this week.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 435, 432, and 430 March, and resistance is at 453, 457, and 460 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 284, 278, and 27\5 March, and resistance is at 312, 317, and 320 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower last week, but Soybean Oil closed a little higher.  Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little higher last year, but Soybean Meal Was a little lower.  It seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there just weeks away.  The Trump administration says that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February, and China has already bought a lot to reach that goal.  US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico.  Temperatures will average above normal in the Midwest this week.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down.  Support is at 1041, 1033, and 1030 March, and resistance is at 1071, 1082, and  1086 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down.  Support is at 300.00, 298.00, and 292.00 March, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 311.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4840, 4810, and 4750 March, with resistance at 4970, 5030, and 5120 March
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were lower last week but higher today.  There are still ideas of increasing supplies available to the market along with weaker demand.  There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Palm Oil in biofuels blends.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and some concerns about demand   Canola was a little lower.  There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 600.00, 590.00, and 584.00 March, with resistance at 616.00, 626.00, and 635.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3880, 3820, and 3760 March, with resistance at 4130, 4160, and 4200 March.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 5
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1005.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1022.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1027.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1030.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1027.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1010.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1027.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1032.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1035.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1032.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          1000.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          1000.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          4,000.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           410.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.0675)
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