Last week’s column was all about trust. Do we trust the trade, or any breakout associated with it on the thinner holiday markets? We had an inclination and got an official answer this week and it was not the one the bulls were looking for. There is an old saying that goes, “fool me one, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.” Not that we were fooled by the failed break, as we warned against getting too confident. Still, as we move forward and are finally past this thin holiday market, we must be aware that technical signals are not as strong when we are dealing with a thin market. It’s best at times to drag your feet and wait, and in this case see where the market is when we come back on Monday. Still doing too much technical damage can be fatal in certain situations. The one thing the market is good at is making one humble.
Corn gave back all of last week’s gains, and more, with March falling 12 ½ cents (-2.78%) this week. Export Inspections data indicated 1.3 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/25, with marketing year shipments now 66.17% above a year ago at 25.57 MMT. EIA updated ethanol production data this week with 1.12 million barrels per day of ethanol production in the week of 12/26, a near record total. Stocks were up 416,000 barrels to 22.944 million barrels. The monthly NASS Grain Crushing report showed 471.87 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in November. USDA Export Sales data from this week showed 2.2 MMT of corn sold in the week of 12/18. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money flipped back to a net long by a move of 55,431 contracts to a net long of 2,759 contracts but 12/23. On Wednesday, USDA released the payment details for the Farm Bridge Assistance program, with the corn payment listed at $44.36/acre. Sorghum was tallied at $48.11.
All wheat bulls could muster was one week of gains, as the three exchanges gave it all back this week. Kansas City was back down 18 1/2 cents this week, as March Chicago was 12 ½ cents in the red. March MPLS spring wheat was 8 ½ cents lower. Export Inspections fell to 302,096 MT in the week of 12/25, with accumulated shipments at 15.06 MMT (+22.02% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of December 18 was at 147,834 MT. CFTC data from the week of December 23 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 24,747 contracts to their net short at 91,6658 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 964 contracts to 24,749 contracts in that week. Details on the Farm Bridge Assistance program were released by the USDA on Wednesday, with the wheat payment tallied at $39.35/acre.
Soybeans resumed the selling this, as March fell 26 ¾ cents as the calendar switched to 2026. Products were mixed this week, as March soybean meal was down $11.40/ton on the week, with bean oil 8 points higher. USDA export inspections showed soybean shipments improving to 750,312 MT in the week of December 25. Marketing year shipments at 15.4 MMT are down 46.3% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had just 1 update this week, with 1.05 MMT sold in the week ending on 12/18. Crush data via the Fats and Oils report was released on Friday, with 220.4 mbu of soybeans crushed during November, down 6.7% from the previous month but still 4.98% above last year’s monthly record. CFTC data is still slightly behind schedule with the holiday, as the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming another 37,375 contracts from their net long to 110,403 contracts by December 23. USDA released the payment details for the Farm Bridge Assistance program on Wednesday, with soybeans getting a $30.88/acre payment.
Live cattle were higher this week, helped by a Friday rally taking the gains to $6.35 over last Friday. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $232 sales, up $2-3. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $9.925 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up 90 cents week/week to $350.22. An update from APHIS this showed an active bovine case in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US, discovered on December 26. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $3.05. Choice boxes slipped another $1.13/cwt (-0.3%) on the week to $349.97, as Select was $3.12 (0.9%) higher at $346.92 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 11.2% above the week prior but down 4.6% from the same holiday week last year at 423.7 million lbs. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 94,868 contracts as of December 23 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 3,565 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 14,629 contracts on that date.
Hogs saw another round of back and forth trade, as February was down 42 cents this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was $1.45 lower this week at $82.26 as of December 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $3.14 (-3.2%) this week to $94.57/cwt. The ham, picnic, and belly were lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2% from the same week last year at 487.1 million lbs, which was 12.6% above the week prior. CFTC data had spec traders increasing their net long by another 10,489 contracts to 75,325 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on December 23.
Cotton futures slipped back lower this week with March back down 48 points. Export Sales from the week of 12/18 were tallied at 182,680 RB, with shipments at 146,915 RB. Commitment of Traders data is updated through December 23, with spec funds in cotton futures and options cutting 4,387 contracts from their net short position of 50,446 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.76 cents/lb on Friday morning, up 74 points from the week prior. The LDP rate is now 1.24 cents. On Wednesday afternoon, USDA released the payment details for the Farm Bridge Assistance program, with the cotton payment listed at $117.35/acre.
Market Watch
We are back to a normal schedule next week, at least without the holidays. Export Inspection data will be out on Monday morning per the usual schedule. USDA will release a catchup Export Sales report for the week of 12/25 on Monday morning, with the data finally getting caught up on Thursday for the week of Jan 1. EIA data will be out on Wednesday. Census data for October will be out on Thursday.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn looked like a breakout last week. We had a break above the downtrend off a triangle pattern, suggesting a move to $4.66. However, as last week’s theme suggested, the holiday trade couldn’t be trusted. The break higher turned to a retraction lower this week, with the uptrend off that triangle at $4.36 1/4. An uptrend off the October and Dec low at $4.38. Support has held, though we did run a little past the 100-day moving average support at $4.38 ¼. Stochastics lean bearish and are not oversold, suggesting more selling to start next week. We’ll see how the trade reacts after the holidays. If we break lower here, the 50% Fib retracement support sits at $4.33 ½, with the 61.8% at 4.27 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Fool Me Once. Ag Marketing Report 01/05/2025
Last week’s column was all about trust. Do we trust the trade, or any breakout associated with it on the thinner holiday markets? We had an inclination and got an official answer this week and it was not the one the bulls were looking for. There is an old saying that goes, “fool me one, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.” Not that we were fooled by the failed break, as we warned against getting too confident. Still, as we move forward and are finally past this thin holiday market, we must be aware that technical signals are not as strong when we are dealing with a thin market. It’s best at times to drag your feet and wait, and in this case see where the market is when we come back on Monday. Still doing too much technical damage can be fatal in certain situations. The one thing the market is good at is making one humble.
Corn gave back all of last week’s gains, and more, with March falling 12 ½ cents (-2.78%) this week. Export Inspections data indicated 1.3 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/25, with marketing year shipments now 66.17% above a year ago at 25.57 MMT. EIA updated ethanol production data this week with 1.12 million barrels per day of ethanol production in the week of 12/26, a near record total. Stocks were up 416,000 barrels to 22.944 million barrels. The monthly NASS Grain Crushing report showed 471.87 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in November. USDA Export Sales data from this week showed 2.2 MMT of corn sold in the week of 12/18. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money flipped back to a net long by a move of 55,431 contracts to a net long of 2,759 contracts but 12/23. On Wednesday, USDA released the payment details for the Farm Bridge Assistance program, with the corn payment listed at $44.36/acre. Sorghum was tallied at $48.11.
All wheat bulls could muster was one week of gains, as the three exchanges gave it all back this week. Kansas City was back down 18 1/2 cents this week, as March Chicago was 12 ½ cents in the red. March MPLS spring wheat was 8 ½ cents lower. Export Inspections fell to 302,096 MT in the week of 12/25, with accumulated shipments at 15.06 MMT (+22.02% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of December 18 was at 147,834 MT. CFTC data from the week of December 23 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 24,747 contracts to their net short at 91,6658 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 964 contracts to 24,749 contracts in that week. Details on the Farm Bridge Assistance program were released by the USDA on Wednesday, with the wheat payment tallied at $39.35/acre.
Soybeans resumed the selling this, as March fell 26 ¾ cents as the calendar switched to 2026. Products were mixed this week, as March soybean meal was down $11.40/ton on the week, with bean oil 8 points higher. USDA export inspections showed soybean shipments improving to 750,312 MT in the week of December 25. Marketing year shipments at 15.4 MMT are down 46.3% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had just 1 update this week, with 1.05 MMT sold in the week ending on 12/18. Crush data via the Fats and Oils report was released on Friday, with 220.4 mbu of soybeans crushed during November, down 6.7% from the previous month but still 4.98% above last year’s monthly record. CFTC data is still slightly behind schedule with the holiday, as the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming another 37,375 contracts from their net long to 110,403 contracts by December 23. USDA released the payment details for the Farm Bridge Assistance program on Wednesday, with soybeans getting a $30.88/acre payment.
Live cattle were higher this week, helped by a Friday rally taking the gains to $6.35 over last Friday. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $232 sales, up $2-3. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $9.925 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up 90 cents week/week to $350.22. An update from APHIS this showed an active bovine case in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US, discovered on December 26. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $3.05. Choice boxes slipped another $1.13/cwt (-0.3%) on the week to $349.97, as Select was $3.12 (0.9%) higher at $346.92 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 11.2% above the week prior but down 4.6% from the same holiday week last year at 423.7 million lbs. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 94,868 contracts as of December 23 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 3,565 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 14,629 contracts on that date.
Hogs saw another round of back and forth trade, as February was down 42 cents this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was $1.45 lower this week at $82.26 as of December 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $3.14 (-3.2%) this week to $94.57/cwt. The ham, picnic, and belly were lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2% from the same week last year at 487.1 million lbs, which was 12.6% above the week prior. CFTC data had spec traders increasing their net long by another 10,489 contracts to 75,325 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on December 23.
Cotton futures slipped back lower this week with March back down 48 points. Export Sales from the week of 12/18 were tallied at 182,680 RB, with shipments at 146,915 RB. Commitment of Traders data is updated through December 23, with spec funds in cotton futures and options cutting 4,387 contracts from their net short position of 50,446 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.76 cents/lb on Friday morning, up 74 points from the week prior. The LDP rate is now 1.24 cents. On Wednesday afternoon, USDA released the payment details for the Farm Bridge Assistance program, with the cotton payment listed at $117.35/acre.
Market Watch
We are back to a normal schedule next week, at least without the holidays. Export Inspection data will be out on Monday morning per the usual schedule. USDA will release a catchup Export Sales report for the week of 12/25 on Monday morning, with the data finally getting caught up on Thursday for the week of Jan 1. EIA data will be out on Wednesday. Census data for October will be out on Thursday.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn looked like a breakout last week. We had a break above the downtrend off a triangle pattern, suggesting a move to $4.66. However, as last week’s theme suggested, the holiday trade couldn’t be trusted. The break higher turned to a retraction lower this week, with the uptrend off that triangle at $4.36 1/4. An uptrend off the October and Dec low at $4.38. Support has held, though we did run a little past the 100-day moving average support at $4.38 ¼. Stochastics lean bearish and are not oversold, suggesting more selling to start next week. We’ll see how the trade reacts after the holidays. If we break lower here, the 50% Fib retracement support sits at $4.33 ½, with the 61.8% at 4.27 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.