Trust, sometimes we take it for granted and other times we look too hard for it. It may be that we have issues handing over controls to $100,000+ worth of equipment to someone you just hired. Other times it may be a cow that is holding her head just a little too high. At times, especially in the last example, having a little bit of reluctance in trust can pay off. Turning to the markets this week we saw corn make a run at a breakout, beans get a nice little bounce, and wheat finally get some green on the screen. The livestock held up despite some late week pressure. Specifically, referring to the grains, trust is the issue here. How much should we trust a push higher that was associated with thin trade? Afterall this was one of the shortest weeks we will have. As you may know with fewer participants, the market can run a little further than it normally would. Getting past this next week’s thinner trade and holding the breaks would be the key to the trust factor.
Corn added to last week’s modest strength, with a gain of 6 ¼ cents on this week’s shortened trade. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.74 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/18, taking the marketing year shipments to 67.57% above a year ago at 24.27 MMT. USDA Export Sales data was updated twice again this week, with 1.48 MMT sold in the week of 12/4 and 1.74 MMT for the week of December 11. Total export commitments are now 47.58 MMT, up 31% from the same date last year. Commitment of Traders data got just 1 update this week and should be up to date after the holiday, as managed money trimmed flipped back from short to long by a move of 62,390 contracts to a net long of 52,672 contracts.
Wheat posted strength this week, as the winter wheat contracts continued led the charge. Kansas City was up 18 ¼ cents this week, as March Chicago was 9 ¼ cents higher. March MPLS spring wheat was just 1 ¼ cents higher. Export Inspections improved to 627,443 MT in the week of 12/18, with accumulated shipments at 14.75 MMT (+22.9% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of December 4 was at 381,532 MT, with the second release on Tuesday morning at 432,609 MT in the week of 12/11. Export sale commitments are now 19.855 MMT, up 22% from last year at this point. CFTC data from the week of December 16 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 20,849 contracts to their net short at 66,918 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 8,702 contracts to 25,713 contracts in that week.
Soybeans saw a bounce this week, as January was 9 ½ cents higher. Products added some support this week, as Jan soybean meal was up $6.10/ton on the week, as bean oil was 82 points higher. USDA export inspections showed soybean shipments improving to 870,199 MT in the week of December 18. That is still seasonally low, as it was down 51% from the same point last year. Marketing year shipments are down 46% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 1.55 MMT sold in the week ending on 12/4 and 2.396 MMT in the week of December 11. Total export sale commitments of shipped and unshipped beans are now 25..78 MMT, a 33% lag from the same point last year. CFTC data is still slightly behind schedule with the holiday, as the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming 32,560 contracts from their net long to 147,778 contracts by December 16.
Live cattle slipped back this week, as February was up $1.15 from last Friday. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $229-230 sales. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up 57 cents on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 73 cents week/week to $349.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week. Choice boxes fell $10.53/cwt (2.9%) on the week to $351.10, as Select was $2.22 (0.6%) lower at $343.80 as of Friday. We got our first NASS Cold Storage report since September this week, showing 425.5 million lbs of beef stocks at the end of November, which was down 3.42% from last year and the smallest November total since 2014. Weekly beef production was 1.7% above the same holiday week last year at 383.9 million lbs, despite a 0.9% decline in slaughter. Production year to date is 4% lower on a 6.8% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 91,303 contracts as of December 16 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 3,013 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 14,094 contracts on that date, down just 167 from the week prior.
Hogs saw some back and forth trade around the USDA Hogs & Pigs report, with February up a tick. The CME Lean Hog Index slipped back 17 cents this week at $83.71 as of December 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up another $2.05 (-2.1%) this week to $97.71/cwt. The ham, picnic, and loin were lower on the week. NASS Hogs & Pigs data was out on Tuesday, with December 1 hog inventory at 75.55 million head, up 0.63% from last year. December 1 market hogs were up 0.75% at 69.59 million head, with hogs kept for breeding down 0.87% to 5.952 million head. Cold Storage data was updated, with pork stocks on November 30 at 371.27 million lbs. That was the lowest November total since 1997 and the lowest for any month since June 2004. Weekly pork production was down 3.7% from the same week last year at 432.5 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.1% on a 1.5% drop in slaughter. CFTC data had spec traders increasing their net long by 13,365 contracts to 64,836 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on December 16.
Cotton futures posted a turnaround this week with March up 74 points. Export Sales from the week of 12/4 were tallied at 153,266 RB, with 12/11 sales totaling 304,689 RB. Total export sale commitments are now 6.183 million RB, a drop of 14% from the same period last year. With just 1 catchup release this week, Commitment of Traders data is updated through December 16 and just waiting on the holidays to get caught up. Spec funds in cotton futures and options added 180 contracts to their net short position of 54,833 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week will be another holiday shortened week. Export Inspection data will be out on Monday morning. EIA data will be out on Monday as well after being delayed this week due to the holiday. USDA will release a catchup Export Sales report for the week of 12/18 on Wednesday morning. Wednesday is also first notice day for January soybean complex futures, as well as the last trade day for December live cattle. With January 1 on Thursday, the markets will be closed, with a hard open on Friday at 8:30 am CST. Friday will be the release of the Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans got a nice little bounce this week. Still, with the thinner holiday trade and limited follow through, this may be just a dead cat bounce. After finding support at a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of $10.59 ¼, futures saw a bounce to the 1/3 speed line on Friday, finding resistance at $10.82. In terms of getting any push higher to the upside, that would be the area to keep an eye on. There is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the November high at $11.01 ¼, which may be a point to look for if we get some extended month/year end short covering. The ADX at 31 says to follow the bearish MACD, though stochastics do have a buy signal and are turning bullish.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Trust. Ag Marketing Report 12/29/2025
Trust, sometimes we take it for granted and other times we look too hard for it. It may be that we have issues handing over controls to $100,000+ worth of equipment to someone you just hired. Other times it may be a cow that is holding her head just a little too high. At times, especially in the last example, having a little bit of reluctance in trust can pay off. Turning to the markets this week we saw corn make a run at a breakout, beans get a nice little bounce, and wheat finally get some green on the screen. The livestock held up despite some late week pressure. Specifically, referring to the grains, trust is the issue here. How much should we trust a push higher that was associated with thin trade? Afterall this was one of the shortest weeks we will have. As you may know with fewer participants, the market can run a little further than it normally would. Getting past this next week’s thinner trade and holding the breaks would be the key to the trust factor.
Corn added to last week’s modest strength, with a gain of 6 ¼ cents on this week’s shortened trade. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.74 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/18, taking the marketing year shipments to 67.57% above a year ago at 24.27 MMT. USDA Export Sales data was updated twice again this week, with 1.48 MMT sold in the week of 12/4 and 1.74 MMT for the week of December 11. Total export commitments are now 47.58 MMT, up 31% from the same date last year. Commitment of Traders data got just 1 update this week and should be up to date after the holiday, as managed money trimmed flipped back from short to long by a move of 62,390 contracts to a net long of 52,672 contracts.
Wheat posted strength this week, as the winter wheat contracts continued led the charge. Kansas City was up 18 ¼ cents this week, as March Chicago was 9 ¼ cents higher. March MPLS spring wheat was just 1 ¼ cents higher. Export Inspections improved to 627,443 MT in the week of 12/18, with accumulated shipments at 14.75 MMT (+22.9% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of December 4 was at 381,532 MT, with the second release on Tuesday morning at 432,609 MT in the week of 12/11. Export sale commitments are now 19.855 MMT, up 22% from last year at this point. CFTC data from the week of December 16 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 20,849 contracts to their net short at 66,918 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 8,702 contracts to 25,713 contracts in that week.
Soybeans saw a bounce this week, as January was 9 ½ cents higher. Products added some support this week, as Jan soybean meal was up $6.10/ton on the week, as bean oil was 82 points higher. USDA export inspections showed soybean shipments improving to 870,199 MT in the week of December 18. That is still seasonally low, as it was down 51% from the same point last year. Marketing year shipments are down 46% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 1.55 MMT sold in the week ending on 12/4 and 2.396 MMT in the week of December 11. Total export sale commitments of shipped and unshipped beans are now 25..78 MMT, a 33% lag from the same point last year. CFTC data is still slightly behind schedule with the holiday, as the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming 32,560 contracts from their net long to 147,778 contracts by December 16.
Live cattle slipped back this week, as February was up $1.15 from last Friday. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $229-230 sales. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up 57 cents on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 73 cents week/week to $349.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week. Choice boxes fell $10.53/cwt (2.9%) on the week to $351.10, as Select was $2.22 (0.6%) lower at $343.80 as of Friday. We got our first NASS Cold Storage report since September this week, showing 425.5 million lbs of beef stocks at the end of November, which was down 3.42% from last year and the smallest November total since 2014. Weekly beef production was 1.7% above the same holiday week last year at 383.9 million lbs, despite a 0.9% decline in slaughter. Production year to date is 4% lower on a 6.8% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 91,303 contracts as of December 16 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 3,013 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 14,094 contracts on that date, down just 167 from the week prior.
Hogs saw some back and forth trade around the USDA Hogs & Pigs report, with February up a tick. The CME Lean Hog Index slipped back 17 cents this week at $83.71 as of December 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up another $2.05 (-2.1%) this week to $97.71/cwt. The ham, picnic, and loin were lower on the week. NASS Hogs & Pigs data was out on Tuesday, with December 1 hog inventory at 75.55 million head, up 0.63% from last year. December 1 market hogs were up 0.75% at 69.59 million head, with hogs kept for breeding down 0.87% to 5.952 million head. Cold Storage data was updated, with pork stocks on November 30 at 371.27 million lbs. That was the lowest November total since 1997 and the lowest for any month since June 2004. Weekly pork production was down 3.7% from the same week last year at 432.5 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.1% on a 1.5% drop in slaughter. CFTC data had spec traders increasing their net long by 13,365 contracts to 64,836 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on December 16.
Cotton futures posted a turnaround this week with March up 74 points. Export Sales from the week of 12/4 were tallied at 153,266 RB, with 12/11 sales totaling 304,689 RB. Total export sale commitments are now 6.183 million RB, a drop of 14% from the same period last year. With just 1 catchup release this week, Commitment of Traders data is updated through December 16 and just waiting on the holidays to get caught up. Spec funds in cotton futures and options added 180 contracts to their net short position of 54,833 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week will be another holiday shortened week. Export Inspection data will be out on Monday morning. EIA data will be out on Monday as well after being delayed this week due to the holiday. USDA will release a catchup Export Sales report for the week of 12/18 on Wednesday morning. Wednesday is also first notice day for January soybean complex futures, as well as the last trade day for December live cattle. With January 1 on Thursday, the markets will be closed, with a hard open on Friday at 8:30 am CST. Friday will be the release of the Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans got a nice little bounce this week. Still, with the thinner holiday trade and limited follow through, this may be just a dead cat bounce. After finding support at a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of $10.59 ¼, futures saw a bounce to the 1/3 speed line on Friday, finding resistance at $10.82. In terms of getting any push higher to the upside, that would be the area to keep an eye on. There is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the November high at $11.01 ¼, which may be a point to look for if we get some extended month/year end short covering. The ADX at 31 says to follow the bearish MACD, though stochastics do have a buy signal and are turning bullish.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.