All Is Calm. The Energy Report 12/26/2025

In the aftermath of the Christmas holiday for oil prices, everything is calm and everything is bright. Energy prices are flatlining, the supply and demand seem to be in this cosmic-like balance, and there are hopes that there could be a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from the new year.
The BBC reported that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has given a positive assessment of a conversation he had with US envoys regarding efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Zelensky said Thursday’s call with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, which lasted nearly an hour, had yielded “new ideas in terms of formats, meetings, and… timing on how to bring a real peace closer.” This suggests that the dialogue between the parties is not only ongoing but may be progressing toward practical steps to negotiate peace. The involvement of prominent US figures highlights Washington’s continued commitment to supporting diplomatic initiatives in the region.
Following the conversation, Zelensky indicated that he would hold another meeting with President Donald Trump “in the near future.” This announcement adds another layer of diplomatic effort, suggesting that former US leadership is also playing a role in discussions aimed at resolving the conflict. The prospect of further meetings may signal that more concrete proposals or agreements could emerge soon, potentially influencing the dynamics between Russia and Ukraine.
Earlier this week, Zelensky shared details of an updated 20-point peace plan, which was formulated during talks between US and Ukrainian envoys in Florida. The plan reportedly covers a broad range of issues necessary for achieving a sustainable resolution, although specific points have not yet been made public. The formulation of such a comprehensive plan demonstrates a renewed commitment to finding a peaceful solution and likely addresses concerns of all parties involved.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced that it was analyzing proposals brought back from the US by a Russian envoy. This indicates that Russia is actively considering the initiatives discussed during the recent round of negotiations. The fact that these proposals are under review in Moscow may be a positive sign, suggesting that there is at least some willingness to engage with new peace proposals and that diplomatic channels remain open.
We also have a high-stakes pursuit on the high seas, reminiscent of an “OJ-like” chase, but this time it’s centered on an oil tanker. According to The Wall Street Journal, a U.S. Coast Guard vessel tracked the Bella 1, a massive oil tanker, across the Atlantic Ocean. When the Coast Guard ship closed to within half a mile, the crew realized they needed backup due to the sheer size of the target. The Bella 1—a vessel much larger than any Coast Guard ship—has been fleeing a U.S. blockade targeting sanctioned vessels running oil to and from Venezuela.
The Bella 1 is sanctioned for allegedly transporting oil to organizations the U.S. has designated as terrorist groups. Last weekend, the tanker executed a rare U-turn, refused to be boarded, and sped away from Venezuela at full throttle. After more than five days of pursuit, U.S. officials say the Coast Guard and U.S. military are now mobilizing additional resources, including a Maritime Special Response Team, an elite unit trained for hostile ship boarding operations.
This chase marks perhaps the most dangerous confrontation yet in the U.S.’s emerging quarantine of the Venezuelan oil sector—a strategy aimed at squeezing President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, which the Trump administration accuses of flooding the U.S. with drugs. Maduro has denied these accusations and instead accuses Washington of naval piracy and attempting to seize Venezuela’s natural resources.
For the first time in decades, the U.S. military has ramped up its presence in the Caribbean, launching lethal strikes on boats suspected of drug trafficking and now targeting oil tankers. Since December 10, the U.S. has seized two tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, with neither crew resisting. The reasons why Bella 1 is defying Coast Guard orders remain unclear. The ship’s owner, Turkey-based Louis Marine Shipholding Enterprises, did not respond to requests for comment.
Most commercial vessels, even those carrying contraband, typically comply with U.S. armed forces. The Bella 1, however, is accused by the U.S. of transporting black-market Iranian oil for groups aligned with Iran, such as Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The U.S. Treasury Department claims the vessel has connections to the Quds Force, the foreign operations wing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Retired Rear Adm. William Baumgartner, a former Coast Guard judge advocate general, told The Wall Street Journal, “They are probably getting orders from somewhere. These are owned by very bad people trying to make money in a particular manner.” The U.S. contends the Bella 1 is part of a “shadow fleet” of aging tankers with opaque ownership, shuttling sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela to buyers in countries like China, Cuba, and India.
Tactics common among the shadow fleet—including disabling transponders, conducting risky ship-to-ship transfers at sea, and sailing under false flags—have been used by the Bella 1, according to tanker-tracking firm Kpler. Before heading for Venezuela, the Bella 1 reportedly loaded crude in Iran and “went dark” near the Strait of Hormuz for two months, only reappearing after the suspected oil transfer was completed. The ship then proceeded west, crossed the Strait of Gibraltar into the Atlantic, and signaled a destination of Curaçao. However, following the U.S. seizure of another tanker on December 10, the Bella 1 reversed course, made another U-turn during an engagement with the Coast Guard, and continued to evade capture.
U.S. officials say there is no urgency to board the Bella 1, a slow-moving vessel whose location is now known. This has allowed the U.S. to assemble specialized units for a potential boarding. In addition to elite forces, the Coast Guard may also be recruiting a captain certified to pilot such a massive ship—roughly three football fields long and nearly 20 stories high.
If you look at oil here we’re probably building the base down at these lower levels but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of momentum for the upside we do see some more cold weather coming in which could give us some support and the stronger than expected gross domestic product means that we’re going to be seeing demand for oil probably at a record high I think that the major reporting agencies are right now underestimating demand growth and I think you saw that somewhat in last week’s explosive gross domestic product number but also too if you look at the inflation number that could slow us down a bit as the Fed may be a little bit more reluctant to raise interest rates.
Natural gas prices have come back as the forecasts are suggesting that winter is going to come back, this comes as liquefied natural gas exports are at a record high. Fox Weather is reporting that Winter weather alerts issued for over 60 million as impactful snowstorm threatens Northeast post-Christmas
A quick but powerful storm will blast through the Northeast Friday into early Saturday and significantly impact post-Christmas travel in what could be the strongest snow the Big Apple has seen in years.
Obvious storm in the cold weather that could follow one of the deepest freeze we’ve seen at least since earlier in the year could get the natural gas market looking a lot tighter you know it’s you know we we’ve fallen below the five year average for the first time in a long time and while this week we’ll see the impact of west demand that we can make that up on the back end.
So the Fox Weather app to keep up with the latest on this incoming winter storm at the same time you need to stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they’re the only network in America that is truly invested in you at the same time make sure you sign up for the fPhil Flynn daily trade levels as well as the energy report of manic metals report all you have to do is call 888-264-5665 or e-mail pflynn@pricegroup.com.

 

Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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