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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Comments 12/18/2025

By On December 18, 2025 - 1:19 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was higher yesterday on reports of increased commercial buying and speculators covering short positions.  The November jobs data for the US was released yesterday and appeared to affect prices everywhere.  Farmers are not selling too much due to price, but buyers are hard to find.  A lack of new Chinese demand has been important and a reason to see lower US prices.  The lack of demand seems to be part of the price for now but the demand is not a reason to see a rally anytime soon.  The US harvest is over.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 62.00, 60.80, and 59.60 March, with resistance of 63.80, 64.90 and 65.40 March.
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 18
    For the week ended Nov 27, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
upland cotton      135.9        4.5    5724.9    6858.9   3416.2    456.2
pima cotton          4.2        0.0     171.9     228.8     59.9      0.0
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were higher yesterday.  Prices have rallied in the last few days after cold weather hit the state of Florida and reminded everyone what time of the year it was.  Traders are worried about demand even with overall lower prices.  FCOJ from Brazil has been subjected to tariffs but those have been stopped by the US for now.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 159.00, 15100, and 143.00 January, with resistance at 173.00, 184.00, and 184.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were lower yesterday, and trends are turning down in New York on the daily charts and are still down in London due to ideas and reports of increasing harvest sales from Vietnam.  The selling yesterday came primarily in response to reports of very good conditions in Brazil that has caused some farm selling.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has scattered showers lately and conditions there are called good.  Vietnamese producers are selling.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 294.98 ct/lb.  ICE 15 said that 25 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 815 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 352.00, 346.00, and 334.00 March, and resistance is at 371.00, 379.00 and 385.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 3780, 3710, and 3570 January, with resistance at 4100, 4200, and 4290 January.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were yesterday along with the price action in most other markets on ideas of good supplies for the market.  Trends are sideways to down, but the selling could be running out of steam.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 March and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 416.00, 410.00, and 408.00 March, with resistance at 437.00, 445.00, and 452.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed a little lower in quiet trading.  Short term trends turned down earlier in the week.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 5270, 4930, and 4820 March, with resistance at 6510, 6710, and 7150 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3600 March, with resistance at 4700, 4860, and 5070 March.
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