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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 12/18/2025

By On December 18, 2025 - 1:20 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ Analysts’ Estimates for December Cattle-On-Feed Report
  The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report was originally scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday. However, data is suspended if the government shutdown continues.
                                Average            Range
                              of estimates      of estimates
  On-feed Dec 1                   98.2             97.3 – 99.0
  Placed in Nov                   90.9             84.4 – 96.0
  Marketed in Nov                 88.5             87.5 – 89.0
   Analyst                      On-Feed       Placements    Marketed
                                Dec 1         in Nov         in Nov
   Allegiant Commodity Group     98.6           94.1         88.6
   Allendale Inc.                98.8           96.0         88.9
   HedgersEdge                   97.3           84.4         88.1
   Livestock Mktg Info Ctr       98.0           90.5         88.4
   Midwest Market Solutions      97.7           84.8         88.5
   NFC Markets                   99.0           96.0         87.5
   Texas A&M Extension           98.4           90.9         88.5
   US Commodities                97.6           89.0         89.0
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 18
    For the week ended Nov 27, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat              460.7        0.0   18939.8   15403.7   6021.9     42.8
  hrw              134.2        0.0    6870.2    3548.7   1726.9      2.5
  srw               21.8        0.0    2666.6    2478.5    854.3     29.9
  hrs              100.6        0.0    4722.8    4987.0   1449.9      0.0
  white            172.7        0.0    4298.5    4107.5   1838.8     10.5
  durum             31.4        0.0     381.7     281.8    152.0      0.0
corn              1792.2        5.1   44355.8   34191.3  24696.4    829.7
soybeans          1106.0       10.0   21829.2   35970.6  10213.8     22.3
soymeal            436.0        0.0    7592.9    7272.8   5014.9      0.5
soyoil              25.5        0.0     198.7     416.3    138.5     27.5
upland cotton      135.9        4.5    5724.9    6858.9   3416.2    456.2
pima cotton          4.2        0.0     171.9     228.8     59.9      0.0
sorghum            321.0        0.0    1175.6    1150.9    774.4      0.0
barley               0.0        0.0      61.4      28.6     31.9      0.0
rice                37.7        0.0    1271.9    1605.3    519.3      0.0
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower again yesterday.  Demand ideas are under pressure from ideas and reports of big competition for sales.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices were weaker last week due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.  Demand has been weaker for various origins including Russia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 500, 494, and 488 March, with resistance at 515, 525, and 530 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 5061 494, and 488 March, with resistance at 520, 525, and 530 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower and the selloff continues.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are mixed in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  The charts show that trends are turning down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down.  Support is at 928, 916, and 904 January and resistance is at 978, 983, and 996 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher again yesterday.  Trends started to turn down last week.  There have been ideas that traders expect weaker demand news from now on but demand overall has been very good and above USDA projections until now.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Reports indicate that many elevators are holding less Corn than expected.  Trends are down in the market.  Temperatures should average near to above normal next week.  Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down.  Support is at 430, 426, and 423 March, and resistance is at 442, 444, and 449 March.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 278, 275, and 272 March, and resistance is at 297, 302, and 312 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower again yesterday.  Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was a little higher.  It seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America.  The Trump administration says that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February, but China has bought a lot to reach that goal.  It is already on a record pace for imports from all origins this year.  The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market and US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  Temperatures will average above normal in the Midwest later this week.
Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 114,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down.  Support is at 1054, 1045, and 1027 January, and resistance is at 1086, 1096, and  1124 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 298.00, 295.00, and 292.00 January, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 319.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down.  Support is at 4740, 4680, and 4620 January, with resistance at 4930, 4980, and 5070 January
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher today on price action in Crude Oil and despiute ideas of increasing supplies available to the market.  There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Palm Oil in biofuels blends.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and some concerns about demand   Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago.  There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.  Trends are down on the daily charts.  StatsCan reported last week that the country has produced a big Canola crop this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 592.00, 586.00, and 580.00 January, with resistance at 614.00, 624.00, and 632.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are down.  Support is at 3880, 3820, and 3760 February, with resistance at 4010, 4060, and 4130 February.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 18
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan/Feb/Mar  1010.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1017.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1015.00    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan/Feb/Mar   1015.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1022.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1020.00    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           995.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           995.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan            4,000.00   +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan            409.00     -04.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.085)
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