Tis the season for more than just the holidays. As we get deeper into winter, it is prime season for sickness. That hit our household this week, as we had just one day where all the kids were in school. And no the parents are not immune. It appears the bulls are not immune either, as the grains, led by the beans were under the weather this week, led by pressure on Friday. A quick look at the bean charts would tell you they have been feeling off for the last couple weeks. The bulls seem to have some immunity in the livestock complex, as they found some support this week.
Corn saw back and forth trade this week, with March posting a 4 cent loss on the week. USDA had WASDE report out on Tuesday, with US ending stocks cut 125 million bushels to 2.029 bbu on an increase to exports. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.453 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/4, down from the previous week, though marketing year to date inspections are 69.4% above a year ago. EIA data showed ethanol production slipping 21,000 barrels per day in the week ending on December 5 to a record 1.105 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were down just 1,000 barrels at 22.51 million barrels. A backed up Grain Crushing report showed 911.76 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in September and October, up just 1 mbu from the same two months last year. USDA Export Sales data was updated twice this week as they continue to catch up, with 979,525 MT sold in the week of 11/6 and 2.4 MMT for the week of November 13. Commitment of Traders data got 3 updates this week, with managed money net long 38,127 contracts of corn futures and options as of November 18.
Wheat was mixed this week, as the winter wheat contracts continued to feel pressure. Kansas City was down 13 ¼ cents, with March Chicago wheat down 6 ½ cents. March MPLS spring wheat was back up 2 ¾ cents from last Friday. WASDE data showed no changes for the US balance sheet, with the world production up another 8.92 MMT and stocks 3.44 MMT higher to 274.87 MMT. Export Inspections were tallied at 393,341 MT in the week of 12/4. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 11/6 was at 462,478 MT, with the second release on Thursday morning at 850,418 MT in the week of 11/13. CFTC data from the week of November 18 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options at a net short of 48,691 contracts. In KC wheat, they were net short 19,939 contracts in that week.
Soybeans were under pressure for much of the week, as January was 28 ½ cents in the red over the course of the week. Jan soybean meal was down $4.90/ton on the week, as bean oil was 162 points (3.13%) lower. WASDE data from Tuesday saw no major changes to the US or world balance sheets. Some backlogged Fats & Oils data was released on Wednesday, with 441.93 mbu of soybeans crushed in September and October combined. That is 9.8% larger than the same period last year. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments improving to 1.018 MMT in the week of December 4, as the first couple cargoes were headed to China. That is still seasonally low, with marketing year shipments down 45.2% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 510,554 MT sold in the week ending on 11/6 and 695,598 MT in the week of November 13. USDA confirmed 1.221 MMT of daily soybean sales this week, with 664,00 MT to China, as their known total for the marketing year is at 3.5 MMT. CFTC data is still 4 weeks behind schedule, though the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders net long 229,625 contracts by November 18. That is the largest net long in over 5 years.
Live cattle pared back some gains late in the week, as February was up $2.40 higher this week. Cash trade continued to rally this week, up $5-10 in the north and $5 in the south to $230. Feeders gave into the late week losses, as January was up just a nickel. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up just $3.04 week/week to $346.77. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again this week. Choice was down $3.76/cwt (-1.0%) this week to $357.44 as Select was $3.17 (-0.9%) lower at $344.22 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 0.4% from last week but 0.9% above the same week last year, mainly on larger carcass weights at 532.4 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.2% lower on a 6.9% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 97,331 contracts as of November 18 in the now 4 week delayed Commitment of Traders report. Feeders were net long 17,430 contracts on that date.
Hogs posted gains on the week, with February up $2.25 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 74 cents this week at $82.57 as of December 10. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held was up another $1.82 (1.9%) this week to $98.21/cwt. Just the loin was lower on the week. Weekly pork production was up 1.2% from last week and 7.1% above the same week last year at 593.6 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.3% on a 1.6% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were taking their net long down to just 57,988 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on November 18.
Cotton futures saw some slight losses this week, with March 10 points lower from last Friday. Crop Production data was updated on Tuesday, showing yield up 10 lbs/ac and production 150,000 bales larger at 14.27 million bales. That took ending stocks up 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. Export Sales from the week of 11/6 were tallied at a marketing year high of 292,146 RB, with 11/13 sales totaling 187,648 RB. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.39 cents/lb this week, down 89 points from the week prior. After 3 releases this week, Commitment of Traders data is updated through November 18, with spec funds in cotton futures and options holding a net short position of 58,243 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Export Inspections report out on Monday morning, with the monthly NOPA report released that morning. USDA will release a catchup Export Sales report for the week of 11/20 on Monday morning and the week of 11/27 on Thursday morning. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning per normal. Friday will see the release of the monthly Cattle on Feed report.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans have a fairly bearish setup. After a shooting star that put in the high at $11.72 ½, the contract put together a head & shoulders top. The neckline was broken last week and suggests we go test $10.80. Bears have not hesitated in heading back there, with the close on Friday less than a dime from reaching that target. Coincidently, there is a gap near that at $10.76. Other support would be the 100-day moving average at $10.81 ½, with the 2/3 speedline at $10.81, and a 61.8% Fib retracement support at $10.76 ½. MACD says we ride the bear train, as momentum has not slowed, though the overbought stochastics would argue that the $10.76-10.81 area is a good spot to find buyers. We will have to see who wins the tug-o-war at that level, but breaking it would indicate a test of at least $10.50 if not the early fall lows.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Under the Weather. Ag Marketing Report 12/15/2025
Tis the season for more than just the holidays. As we get deeper into winter, it is prime season for sickness. That hit our household this week, as we had just one day where all the kids were in school. And no the parents are not immune. It appears the bulls are not immune either, as the grains, led by the beans were under the weather this week, led by pressure on Friday. A quick look at the bean charts would tell you they have been feeling off for the last couple weeks. The bulls seem to have some immunity in the livestock complex, as they found some support this week.
Corn saw back and forth trade this week, with March posting a 4 cent loss on the week. USDA had WASDE report out on Tuesday, with US ending stocks cut 125 million bushels to 2.029 bbu on an increase to exports. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.453 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/4, down from the previous week, though marketing year to date inspections are 69.4% above a year ago. EIA data showed ethanol production slipping 21,000 barrels per day in the week ending on December 5 to a record 1.105 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were down just 1,000 barrels at 22.51 million barrels. A backed up Grain Crushing report showed 911.76 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in September and October, up just 1 mbu from the same two months last year. USDA Export Sales data was updated twice this week as they continue to catch up, with 979,525 MT sold in the week of 11/6 and 2.4 MMT for the week of November 13. Commitment of Traders data got 3 updates this week, with managed money net long 38,127 contracts of corn futures and options as of November 18.
Wheat was mixed this week, as the winter wheat contracts continued to feel pressure. Kansas City was down 13 ¼ cents, with March Chicago wheat down 6 ½ cents. March MPLS spring wheat was back up 2 ¾ cents from last Friday. WASDE data showed no changes for the US balance sheet, with the world production up another 8.92 MMT and stocks 3.44 MMT higher to 274.87 MMT. Export Inspections were tallied at 393,341 MT in the week of 12/4. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 11/6 was at 462,478 MT, with the second release on Thursday morning at 850,418 MT in the week of 11/13. CFTC data from the week of November 18 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options at a net short of 48,691 contracts. In KC wheat, they were net short 19,939 contracts in that week.
Soybeans were under pressure for much of the week, as January was 28 ½ cents in the red over the course of the week. Jan soybean meal was down $4.90/ton on the week, as bean oil was 162 points (3.13%) lower. WASDE data from Tuesday saw no major changes to the US or world balance sheets. Some backlogged Fats & Oils data was released on Wednesday, with 441.93 mbu of soybeans crushed in September and October combined. That is 9.8% larger than the same period last year. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments improving to 1.018 MMT in the week of December 4, as the first couple cargoes were headed to China. That is still seasonally low, with marketing year shipments down 45.2% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 510,554 MT sold in the week ending on 11/6 and 695,598 MT in the week of November 13. USDA confirmed 1.221 MMT of daily soybean sales this week, with 664,00 MT to China, as their known total for the marketing year is at 3.5 MMT. CFTC data is still 4 weeks behind schedule, though the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders net long 229,625 contracts by November 18. That is the largest net long in over 5 years.
Live cattle pared back some gains late in the week, as February was up $2.40 higher this week. Cash trade continued to rally this week, up $5-10 in the north and $5 in the south to $230. Feeders gave into the late week losses, as January was up just a nickel. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up just $3.04 week/week to $346.77. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again this week. Choice was down $3.76/cwt (-1.0%) this week to $357.44 as Select was $3.17 (-0.9%) lower at $344.22 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 0.4% from last week but 0.9% above the same week last year, mainly on larger carcass weights at 532.4 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.2% lower on a 6.9% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 97,331 contracts as of November 18 in the now 4 week delayed Commitment of Traders report. Feeders were net long 17,430 contracts on that date.
Hogs posted gains on the week, with February up $2.25 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 74 cents this week at $82.57 as of December 10. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held was up another $1.82 (1.9%) this week to $98.21/cwt. Just the loin was lower on the week. Weekly pork production was up 1.2% from last week and 7.1% above the same week last year at 593.6 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.3% on a 1.6% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were taking their net long down to just 57,988 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on November 18.
Cotton futures saw some slight losses this week, with March 10 points lower from last Friday. Crop Production data was updated on Tuesday, showing yield up 10 lbs/ac and production 150,000 bales larger at 14.27 million bales. That took ending stocks up 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. Export Sales from the week of 11/6 were tallied at a marketing year high of 292,146 RB, with 11/13 sales totaling 187,648 RB. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.39 cents/lb this week, down 89 points from the week prior. After 3 releases this week, Commitment of Traders data is updated through November 18, with spec funds in cotton futures and options holding a net short position of 58,243 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Export Inspections report out on Monday morning, with the monthly NOPA report released that morning. USDA will release a catchup Export Sales report for the week of 11/20 on Monday morning and the week of 11/27 on Thursday morning. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning per normal. Friday will see the release of the monthly Cattle on Feed report.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans have a fairly bearish setup. After a shooting star that put in the high at $11.72 ½, the contract put together a head & shoulders top. The neckline was broken last week and suggests we go test $10.80. Bears have not hesitated in heading back there, with the close on Friday less than a dime from reaching that target. Coincidently, there is a gap near that at $10.76. Other support would be the 100-day moving average at $10.81 ½, with the 2/3 speedline at $10.81, and a 61.8% Fib retracement support at $10.76 ½. MACD says we ride the bear train, as momentum has not slowed, though the overbought stochastics would argue that the $10.76-10.81 area is a good spot to find buyers. We will have to see who wins the tug-o-war at that level, but breaking it would indicate a test of at least $10.50 if not the early fall lows.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.