Phenomenal Price Equilibrium. The Energy Report 12/15/2025

The oil market is on a run of unwavering oil price stability because of US oil production and energy policies that are going to be an incredible fuel that will drive economic growth in the new year. Oil prices started the year around $75.00 to $80.00 for Brent oil. There are concerns about the US attack on Iran but by neutralizing Iran and allowing OPEC to raise production along with record production from the United States, we have seen the most notable extended period of relative price stability since 2010-2014. Brent crude then consistently hovered around $110.00 a barrel for four years. That was the longest stretch in that high region but still stable prices. We are now in a period over the last couple of years where most of that range has been in that relatively tight range on the lower end. This is an incredible achievement when you consider the fact that if you look at other commodities such as gold and silver, platinum and palladium, a barrel of crude oil is one of the cheapest commodities relatively speaking on the face of the earth right now.

For example, if you look at the gold oil ratio using WTI it takes 75 to 76 barrels of oil to purchase one ounce of gold. And with silver breaking above the Hunt Brother highs of $50 an ounce, surging to record highs catching up to gold’s historic move the ratio between silver and oil is at a historic extreme. In fact, one ounce of silver is worth more than one barrel of oil for the first time in modern history excluding the course the brief phenomenal in 2020 when prices for oil went negative. What’s kind of funny is that if you look at the price of silver it’s undervalued compared to the price of gold even with its record-breaking move of recent months.

Under President Trump, the signals that he has sent to the oil market of drill baby drill is his desire to keep energy prices low and that has paid historic dividends.

It could be argued that U.S. oil production may be peaking a little bit, it’s the confidence that has been sent to the futures market that President Trump has everything under control when it comes to geopolitical risk factors and the ability of the United States, if needed, to raise production to unprecedented levels—unlike anything we have seen before.

By unleashing all of America’s power behind energy—whether it be oil, gasoline, natural gas, rebuilding the manufacturing sector in the United States, rebuilding the mining sector, or reimagining and rebuilding the U.S. power grid—it will not only ensure the stability of prices over the long run, but also highlight American strength and foreign policy. Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665 to learn about trading possibilities.

While the market is still watching some trouble spots, the reality is that President Trump’s strong foreign policy is giving the market confidence that we don’t have the type of risk premium in the price of oil and gasoline that we’ve seen in recent years, even as global oil demand is near record highs.

Today oil prices continue to be remarkably steady,  as investors weigh supply disruptions stemming from intensifying U.S.–Venezuelan relations alongside concerns about oversupply and the possibility of a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement.

Last week, President Donald Trump announced at the White House, “We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela—a very large tanker, in fact, the largest one ever seized!” He added, “And other things are happening.” A senior official from the Trump administration described the ship as “a stateless vessel” last docked in Venezuela, highlighting the administration’s decisive actions.

Meanwhile, industry expert Art Berman emphasizes that the combined OPEC–EIA outlook projects a liquids surplus of around 1.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. The forecast anticipates this surplus peaking at 1.9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 before trending downward. The projected average surplus for 2026 is about 0.4 million barrels per day higher than in 2025, suggesting robust supply dynamics in the coming year.

It also seems that the amount of the surplus is not as large as these two agencies originally predicted and that surplus seems to be on the downward projection. The other key thing of course when it comes to the so-called surplus is it’s going to be the demand side of the equation which I think most agencies are underestimating demand. This could be a perfect case of those low prices curing low prices because we can see incredible economic growth and what may keep the oil prices relatively stable is the fact that demand could not only break records but by break records by more than expected.

Global oil demand is powering ahead as we close out 2025, with consumption reaching record levels and showing no signs of slowing down. While forecasts differ slightly depending on methodology and assumptions, the overall picture is one of robust growth and optimism for the future. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), their December 2025 Oil Market Report highlights a healthy increase of 830,000 barrels per day in 2025, with an even stronger gain of 860,000 barrels per day projected for 2026, buoyed by a brighter economic outlook and surging use of gasoil, jet fuel, and kerosene.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is similarly upbeat in its December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasting a rise in global liquid fuels consumption—including biofuels and other liquids—of 1.1 million barrels per day for 2025, and an impressive 1.2 million barrels per day for 2026.

OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report is even more positive, expecting global oil demand to expand by about 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. All signs point to a thriving oil market, with strong momentum continuing into the next year. Current Demand Levels Current levels are around 103–104 mb/d on average for 2025, building on 2024’s all-time high of approximately 102–103 mb/d (depending on the source).

According to Reuters, shipping costs for oil are set to remain elevated during the first half of 2026, driven by an aging global fleet and an increasing number of vessels facing Western sanctions. Shipping sources point out that rates may moderate in the latter half of the year. Recently, daily rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) soared to approximately $130,000, fueled by strong demand from OPEC and its allies. In addition, the pool of available ships has been constrained, as some have been sanctioned for transporting oil from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, according to industry data and sources.

Natural gas prices edged slightly higher, buoyed by expectations of a forthcoming warm spell following current severe weather conditions. According to Fox Weather, a Polar Vortex is engulfing the eastern United States, bringing dangerously cold arctic air across nearly two dozen states. Over 70 million Americans remain under Cold Weather Alerts on Monday, and the FOX Forecast Center anticipates that, when factoring in wind chills, today could mark the coldest day of the year. The coldest air so far this winter is sweeping the eastern U.S., with wind chills driving temperatures into the single digits as the Polar Vortex weakens, unleashing hazardous arctic conditions stretching from New England all the way to the Gulf Coast, as reported by Fox Weather.