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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 12/15/2025

By On December 15, 2025 - 11:06 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 15
    For the week ended Nov 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat              361.7        7.5   18479.2   15025.5   5922.7     42.8
  hrw               61.5        0.0    6736.0    3422.4   1727.5      2.5
  srw                0.0        7.5    2644.9    2383.8    881.6     29.9
  hrs              117.0        0.0    4622.2    4928.5   1405.5      0.0
  white            183.3        0.0    4125.8    4007.0   1768.6     10.5
  durum              0.0        0.0     350.3     283.7    139.5      0.0
corn              1843.2        0.0   42563.6   32458.9  24801.8    824.6
soybeans          2320.7        0.0   20723.2   33657.9   9911.3     12.3
soymeal            151.0        0.5    7156.8    6996.7   4946.3      0.5
soyoil               7.5       -7.5     173.2     396.8    132.6     27.5
upland cotton      148.4        3.1    5589.0    6688.3   3402.4    451.7
pima cotton          6.2        0.0     167.7     225.1     63.1      0.0
sorghum             49.5        0.0     854.5    1146.5    504.8      0.0
barley               1.0        0.0      61.4      27.6     33.6      0.0
rice                65.3        0.0    1234.3    1522.1    574.6      0.0
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 15
Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL   December   Dec 16, 2025               20   Dec 04, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL    December   Dec 16, 2025               18   Dec 12, 2025
CORN           December   Dec 16, 2025               32   Dec 12, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT   December   Dec 16, 2025               16   Dec 12, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower last week, with Kansas City the weaker market. Demand for Wheat was left unchanged in the domestic USDA reports and was increased in the world USDA reports released last Tuesday.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices were weaker last week due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.  Demand has been weaker for various origins including Russia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 524, 517, and 507 March, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 506, 501, and 494 March, with resistance at 540, 550, and 553 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower last week.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are mixed in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  The charts show that trends are turning down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down.  Support is at 976, 964, and 952 January and resistance is at 1028, 1056, and 1068 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and trends started to turn down last week.  The price action was very bad on Friday.  There have been ideas that traders expect weaker demand news from now on but demand overall has been very good and above USDA projections until now.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Reports indicate that many elevators are holding less Corn than expected.  Trends are mixed in the market.  Temperatures should average near to above normal next week.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 150,320 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 430, 426, and 423 March, and resistance is at 452, 455, and 457 March.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 284, 281, and 278 March, and resistance is at 315, 320, and 323 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday and Soybean Oil was a little lower.  The WASDE reports were released on Tuesday and showed unchanged stocks levels for the US and marginally lower ending stocks for the world.  It seems that Chinese demand is part of the price now and that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America.  The Trump administration says that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February, but China has bought a lot to reach that goal.  It is already on a record pace for imports this year.  The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market and US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  Temperatures will average above normal in the Midwest later this week.
Overnight News: China bought 136,00 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down.  Support is at 1071, 1063, and 1054 January, and resistance is at 1148, 1169, and  1184 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down.  Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 286.00 January, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 319.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4980, 4930, and 4860 January, with resistance at 5320, 5420, and 5510 January.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were lower last week on ideas of increasing supplies available to the market.  Futures were lower today.  There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Palm Oil in biofuels blends.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and some concerns about demand   Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago.  There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.  Trends are down on the daily charts.  StatsCan reported last week that the country has produced a big Canola crop this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 604.00, 598.00, and 592.00 January, with resistance at 636.00, 645.00, and 650.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are down.  Support is at 3940, 3880, and 3820 February, with resistance at 4200, 4270, and 4300 February.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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