FROZEN. The Energy Report 12/12/2025

Let it go, let it go—cold and snow could drive the energy complex, but the hope of a warm-up keeps the natural gas market in a state of weakness. A change in the forecast could cause a massive, short-covering rally in natural gas, as hopes for a Christmas warm-up are keeping both oil prices and natural gas prices in a state of weakness and flux. Yet who wants to be short Nat gas over the weekend when Fox Weather is reporting that This week, over 210 million Americans are set to experience dangerously low temperatures and wind chills, as back-to-back arctic blasts will bring over 150 million people to feel below-average temperatures.

Still, if you look at the price of oil, we are still locked in a sideways trading range, which suggests that OPEC is correct when they say that the market is basically in balance. The optimism surrounding the economy continues to give the demand side of the equation a lot of respect. The energy markets are continuing to see a sideways, bouncy trading range, with crude consolidating in very tight quarters.

Reuters reported that In a monthly report on Thursday, OPEC said that OPEC+ pumped 43.06 million barrels per day of crude in November, up 43,000 bpd from the previous month, as the latest output hike agreement took effect.

The report forecast demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from last month and close to what OPEC+ produced in November. OPEC forecasts demand for its crude at 42.6 million bpd in the first quarter.

Should OPEC+ keep pumping at November’s rate in 2026 and other things remain equal, production would be 60,000 bpd higher than demand, according to a Reuters calculation based on the OPEC report.

Geopolitical concerns are also keeping the market on Guard. Today the Wall Street Journal reported that  The Trump administration’s seizure of a tanker full of Venezuelan crude hits Nicolás Maduro much harder than airstrikes on alleged drug boats. It raises an existential crisis for a regime that runs on oil revenue.

While the U.S. has accused Maduro of leading a drug-trafficking cartel—a charge he denies—oil money is far more important to the Venezuelan leader, his inner circle and the country itself. Crude sales have long represented more than 90% of Venezuela’s export income, and close Maduro allies have faced accusations of skimming from billions in annual oil revenues. More tanker seizures—or even just the threat—creates an escalating series of crises, forcing Venezuela to deeply discount its oil to its handful of buyers, including China, and spend more of its dwindling foreign reserves to stop spiraling inflation.

Underscoring the danger: the tanker seized on Wednesday was carrying roughly $80 million of oil, equivalent to about 5% of what Venezuela spends monthly on imported goods, raising the prospect of shortages according to the Journal.

But it’s almost as if nothing can shake the oil market out of this trading range for those anticipating a glut, given the fact that millions of barrels of floating storage out in the ocean do not compensate for the reality that, if you look at inventories in the United States, we’re still below average for this time of year. Also, if you take into account the oil that has been released from strategic petroleum reserves, we really don’t have much more oil than we would in a normal situation. Any uptick in demand could lead to a supply deficit. So, we are in balance— but it’s a very tight balance.

The market currently  is doing a better jog handling fewer geopolitical risks due to ample supply and growing confidence in President Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, the natural gas market is reacting emotionally to weather forecasts, with this weekend’s January outlook being crucial after the Christmas warm-up. Additionally, the impact of the Arctic blast on production remains an important factor.

Stay tuned—America’s energy story is just heating up, and there’s no sign of slowing down!  Make Sure you download the Fox Weather ap to keep up with the latest on this coming market moving arctic blast. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Invested in you, Call to get my daily trades at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com