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Jack Scoville

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Grains Report 12/10/2025

By On December 10, 2025 - 10:41 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
  Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2025-26 Stockpiles (million bushels)
                      Tuesday’s   Average                    USDA
                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range      November
Corn                   2,029.0      2,166      2,037-2,376     2,154
Soybeans                 290.0        309        250-385         290
Wheat                    901.0        893        846-906         901
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
                     Tuesday’s    Average                    USDA
                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range      November
Corn                     293.4      290.6      284.0-292.0     291.7
Soybeans                 123.2      123.4      123.0-124.0     123.3
Wheat                    260.0      261.6      261.0-262.4     261.4
2025-26
                     Tuesday’s    Average                    USDA
                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range      November
Corn                     279.2      281.3      279.0-283.0     281.3
Soybeans                 122.4      122.8      121.6-125.0     122.0
Wheat                    274.9      272.6      270.9-275.0     271.4
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Dec 9
  U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
  cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
  Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
  Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
  date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
              ======U.S.======      ================WORLD=======================
                Ending Stocks                  Exports              Production
           25/26  24/25   23/24: 25/26   24/25    23/24: 25/26    24/25   23/24
Soybeans   290.0  316.0   342.0:187.70  184.81   177.84:422.54   427.15   396.36
 Brazil       na     na      na:112.50  103.14   104.19:175.00   171.50   154.50
 Argentina    na     na      na:  8.25    7.87     5.11: 48.50    51.11    48.21
 China        na     na      na:  0.10    0.07     0.07: 21.00    20.65    20.84
Soyoil     1,726  1,751   1,551: 13.35   15.01    11.81: 70.61    69.88    64.00
Corn       2,029  1,532   1,763:205.10  187.14   192.65: 1,283    1,231    1,231
 China        na     na      na:  0.02    0.00     0.00:295.00   294.92   288.84
 Argentina    na     na      na: 37.00   30.00    36.26: 53.00    50.00    51.00
 S.Africa     na     na      na:  2.20    1.90     2.27: 16.50    17.06    13.43
Cotton(a)   4.50   4.00    3.15: 43.74   42.40    44.34:119.79   119.28   112.56
All Wheat    901    851     696:218.71  210.18   222.24:837.81   800.77   792.34
 China        na     na      na:  1.00    1.02     1.01:140.00   140.10   136.59
European
   Union      na     na      na: 33.00   27.87    38.01:144.00   122.15   135.38
 Canada       na     na      na: 28.00   29.28    25.44: 39.96    35.94    33.41
 Argentina    na     na      na: 14.50   13.00     8.23: 24.00    18.51    15.85
 Australia    na     na      na: 27.00   23.69    19.84: 37.00    34.11    25.96
 Russia       na     na      na: 44.00   43.00    55.50: 87.50    81.60    91.50
 Ukraine      na     na      na: 14.50   15.75    18.58: 23.00    23.40    23.00
Sorghum     43.0   40.0    33.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na
Barley      65.0   70.0    78.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na
Oats        34.0   29.0    36.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na
Rice        52.9   53.9    39.8: 63.23   60.60    56.76:540.41   541.28   523.97
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 10
Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL   December   Dec 11, 2025                1   Nov 24, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL    December   Dec 11, 2025                8   Nov 28, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT   December   Dec 11, 2025               11   Nov 28, 2025
.
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed a little lower yesterday although demand for Wheat was left unchanged in the domestic USDA reports and was increased in the USDA reports.  The weekly export sales report released on Monday showed that demand was in line with expectations, but the report was still for October sales.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices turned weaker last week due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.  Demand has been weaker for various origins including Russia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 524, 517, and 507 March, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 506, 501, and 494 March, with resistance at 540, 550, and 553 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was a little lower de to the WASDE reports that showed r3educed demand and increased ending stocks.  The sales report released on Monday was still covering October data as USDA catches up with data left unreported due to the government shutdown and was weaker.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are mixed in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  The charts show that futures are in a short term trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 976, 964, and 952 January and resistance is at 1028, 1056, and 1068 January.
DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 10
 USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
                    —–World Price—–     MLG/LDP Rate
                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough
                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)
Long Grain            12.99        8.24       0.00
Medium/Short Grain    12.60        8.54       0.00
Brokens                9.19         —-       —-
  This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
                       U.S. Milling Yields     Loan Rate
                          Whole/Broken         ($/cwt)
                           (lbs/cwt)
Long Grain                50.79/17.89           7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain  59.70/11.09           7.00
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday in response to the WASDE reports that showed increased export demand and reduced ending stocks.  World ending stocks also showed reductions.  There have been ideas that traders expect weaker demand news from now on but demand overall has been very good and above USDA projections until now.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Reports indicate that many elevators are holding less Corn than expected.  Trends are mixed in the market.  Temperatures should average below normal this week.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 430, 426, and 423 March, and resistance is at 452, 455, and 457 March.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 290, 287, and 284 March, and resistance is at 315, 320, and 323 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday in response to the release of the WASDE reports that showed unchanged stocks levels for the US and marginally lower ending stocks for the world.  It seems that Chinese demand is part of the price now and that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America.  The Trump administration says that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February, but China has a lot of buying to do if it is to reach that goal.  It is already on a record pace for imports this year and might not need that much more.  The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market and US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  Temperatures will average below normal in the Midwest this week.
Overnight News: Poland bought 120,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.  China bought 136,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 119,000 tons.  USDA said that 212,000 tons of Soybeans were received for export to unknown destinations.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down.  Support is at 1071, 1063, and 1054 January, and resistance is at 1148, 1169, and  1184 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down.  Support is at 301.00, 292.00, and 289.00 January, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 319.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4980, 4930, and 4860 January, with resistance at 5320, 5420, and 5510 January.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were lower today as traders wait for the next MPOB report and fear that the report will show increased stocks levels.  There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Palm Oil in biofuels blends.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and some concerns about demand   Canola was higher in recovery trading.  Trends are down on the daily charts.  StatsCan reported last week that the country has produced a big Canola crop this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 610.00, 604.00, and 598.00 January, with resistance at 636.00, 645.00, and 650.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are down.  Support is at 4010, 3940, and 3880 February, with resistance at 4200, 4270, and 4300 February.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 10
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          1025.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1030.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1037.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1027.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1030.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1035.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1042.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1032.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1005.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1005.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            4,080.00   -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            420.00     -03.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.117)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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