Super Glut. The Energy Report 12/09/2025

It’s more powerful than a speeding locomotive. Able to leap tall buildings in a single bound—look up in the sky: is it a bird, is it a plane? No, it’s a super oil glut. It is not just a glut, but a “super glut.” That is what is coming out of the Swiss boardroom of Trafigura, the private commodities trading company among the world’s largest, lighting up the wires with this call of a “super oil glut.” At the same time, despite warnings of an impending oil oversupply, Trafigura is boosting payouts—including dividends and employee share buybacks—by 43%, even exceeding earnings.

While the company previously predicted a major supply surplus, current figures show steady oil and gas volumes, only a minor revenue dip, and strong equity holdings. This contrasts with the public narrative of a “super glut,” as prices remain resilient and demand from Asia persists. Trafigura’s decision to defer some buybacks amid executive departures while increasing payouts suggests confidence rather than caution.

Industry chatter points to possible delays in future distributions, but so far, profits are up and the company’s balance sheet is robust. In summary: despite bearish forecasts, actual market activity indicates supply discipline and continued demand, challenging the notion of a devastating oil glut.

It should be interesting today when we get the American Petroleum Institute report which will be our first look at supply the market seems to be looking beyond the fact that the inventories here in the United states are below average and continue to put a lot of faith in this slowdown in global demand and that’s floating oil that seems to be locked out in sea. Of course some of this oil is sanctioned oil and some of this oil is being stored because it’s cheaper to store. At some point at the end of the day, unless this clutch shows up, the market could be severely undervalued.

Take a look at the gold-to-oil ratio and you’ll see the market’s stress meter lighting up like a Christmas tree. Want to learn more? Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665. This number tells you how many barrels of West Texas Intermediate you can buy with a single ounce of gold. Normally, we’re talking about a range somewhere between 15 and 20, but when chaos hits the fan—like it did during the COVID crash in 2020—you see this ratio blow past 50. We saw earlier today that we are at a jaw-dropping 71.4, with gold launching to $4,195 an ounce and WTI stuck down at $58 and change.

That’s a level we haven’t seen since oil was floating around with nowhere to go, and this time it’s even wilder: gold’s rocketing up 56% in a year as central banks gobble it up and traders bet big on Fed rate cuts, while oil takes a 12% spill thanks to never-ending oversupply headlines.

What we’re also observing in the low price of oil is a confidence in President Trump and his policies to maintain low energy prices. This confidence stems not only from his “drill, baby, drill” approach but also from his geopolitical leadership. One of the most significant factors in the reduction of oil prices during the Trump Administration has been the perception of strong leadership, which is believed to significantly reduce the risks of geopolitical attacks on supply. Even though Ukraine has targeted Russian oil supplies, the market remains confident that, under Trump’s leadership, measures will be taken to ensure a well-supplied market. This reduction in the geopolitical risk premium is a testament to the administration’s efforts.

Now having gone through all of that, we do believe that oil is at the lower end of the under end. It’s the never ending trading range. Oil seems to be getting a bit of a boost this morning now with the cold temperatures coming back in. The market seems to be shaking off the weakness that we saw across the entire commodity complex yesterday. Heating oil prices took a big dip after getting pumped up on the cold weather last week with profit taking and hopes that the warmup that is being predicted by some weather forecasters is going to stick around.

That was the same type of an effect we had on natural gas last week we were surging to high since the cold weather set in we saw profit taking on Sunday and Monday on the hopes of a warm up yet we might put that premium back in especially if some of the weather forecasts that we’re seeing from the Fox Weather channel come true.

Fox Weather Headlines that, “Another round of extreme arctic air on the way for millions in the Northern US! It’s the first real bite of La Niña winter, where temperatures usually seen in February have already been recorded in December.” Temperatures are starting to return to normal this weekend after millions of Americans felt the brunt of the extreme chill on Friday before another blast of arctic air rolls through the Northern Tier of the U.S. in the early part of next week.

Temperatures from the Midwest to the Interstate 95 corridor on Thursday and Friday were some of the lowest seen so far this season, with nearly 80 record-low temperatures set between the two days. Another round of frigid air is on the way, especially for Americans in the Great Lakes and Northeast starting Monday and lasting through Wednesday.

Natural gas traders we’re going to have to see how we start to price in that next cold blast and keep an eye on the Fox Weather app to see how sustained it will be. if the market gets a sense that after this warm up we get extended cold, the natural gas prices will more than likely hit new highs if they get the sense that the next blast will be a one and done then we’ll get back into a lower type of trend.

Be sure to download the Fox Weather app to keep up with the latest developments. You should also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network, as they are the only network in America that is invested in you. And yes, you can still get the Phil Flynn Daily Trade Levels just by calling in while they’re still free. You can also sign up for the periodic Manic Metals reports by calling 888-264-5665 or emailing pflyn@pricegroup.com.