Earlier this week, my oldest had his first school Christmas program as a Kindergartner. The teachers had a play for them this year, with a theme of elves and pirates. The concept was elves taking a beach vacation and coming across some pirates. One group is searching for treasure and the other is loaded with presents. I won’t bore you with the details, but the gist of the story was getting the pirates to understand the giving and not taking. Grain bears were in a giving mood last week, but decided to switch to a taking mood this week. Both sides have been in a greedy mode in the cattle market, as bulls were tired of giving for the last month, and switched to the taking mode this week.
Corn slipped up in the latter half of the week, with March down 3 cents. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.421 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/27, down from the previous week but still seasonally high. EIA data showed ethanol production rising 13,000 barrels per day in the week ending on November 21 to a record 1.126 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a draw of 543,000 barrels at 22.511 million barrels. Export Sales data was released twice this week as USDA catches up, with 1.8 MMT sold in the week of 10/23 and 1.99 MMT for the week of October 30. Commitment of Traders data is still aged, with managed money in corn futures and options trimming their net short position by 71,479 contracts in the week of 10/28 to 89,506 contracts.
Wheat was mixed this week. Kansas City was higher this week, up 3 ¾ cents, with the other classes weaker. March MPLS spring wheat was down 5 cents, with the Chicago March contract 2 ¾ cents lower. December KC HRW futures were back up 6 ¾ cents. Export Inspections were tallied at 384,881 MT in the week of 11/27. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/23 was at 499,775 MT, with the second release on Thursday morning at 505,415 MT. Canadian wheat production is pegged at 39.96 MMT according to Stats Canada, a 3.3 MMT hike from the September number and 3 MMT above USDA. CFTC data from all the way back on October 28 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options cutting their net short by 33,692 contracts to 75,133 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed 15,563 contracts from their net short to 51,708 contracts in that week.
Soybeans gave into some late week weakness this week, as January closed 32 ½ cents lower. January soybean meal was down $11.30/ton on the week, as bean oil was 36 points (0.69%) lower. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments improving to 920,194 MT in the week of November 27. That is still seasonally low. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 1.45 MMT sold in the week ending on 10/23 and 1.25 MMT in the week of October 30. USDA confirmed 462,000 MT of soybeans to China this week, with the known total for the marketing year at 2.845 MMT. CFTC data is still more than a month behind, with Commitment of Traders showing spec traders net long 118,489 contracts by October 28, with the latest data showing an 83,160 contract increase from the week prior.
Live cattle rallied this week, with a stronger Friday taking the weekly December gain to $11.57. Cash trade improved late this week with $220-225 in the North and $225-226 in the South. Feeders were rallying for much of the week with January up $15.075. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rallied back, up $24.97 week/week to $318.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again this week. Choice was down $5.62 /cwt (-1.5%) this week to $361.20 as Select was $3.66 (1.0%) lower at $347.39 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 20.7% from last week due to the holiday, as well as 0.4% above the same week last year at 534.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.3% lower on a 7.0% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 116,355 contracts as of October 25 in the more than a month delayed Commitment of Traders report this week. Feeders were net long 21,323 contracts on that date.
Hogs saw some strength this week with December $1.05 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 44 cents this week at $81.83 as of December 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held was up $2.17 (2.3%) this week to $96.39/cwt. Weekly pork production was up 29.7% from last week due to the holiday and 4.0% above the same week last year at 587.7 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.4% on a 1.7% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were slashing another 22,070 contracts from their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on October 28, taking it to 95,161 contracts.
Cotton futures turned back lower this week, as March was 78 points in the red. Export Sales from the week of 10/23 were tallied at 132,760 RB, with 10/23 sales totaling just 81,530 RB. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 51.28 cents/lb this week, up 51 points from the week prior. Delayed Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in cotton futures and options slashing back 7,152 contracts from their net short position as of 10/28 to 74,093 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week will see the weekly Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. USDA also release delayed Export Sales data for the week of 11/6 on Monday morning and the week of 11/13 on Thursday morning. Monday is also first notice day for December live cattle futures as well as the last trade day for December cotton futures. USDA will release their monthly WASDE on Tuesday. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning. Friday is the last trade day for December grain futures.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn started consolidating this week with an 11 cent range. Stochastics have transitioned to high to neutral, crossing and technically inert. There is an uptrend line off the August low at $4.38 ½, which brough buyers at the end of November, along with the 100-day moving average at $4.36 ½. That general area is the one to watch in a pullback. Breaking that may indicate a move back towards the August low. On the contrary, there is a downtrend line off the November high at $4.50 ¾ as resistance, along with a 200-day moving average at $4.47 ½. The market seems contend in the $4.35-4.50 area, as demand has remained, with export business continuing and record ethanol grind, despite a record supply of corn around the country. That doesn’t mean something can’t come in and change that.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Elves or Pirates. Ag Marketing Report 12/08/2025
Earlier this week, my oldest had his first school Christmas program as a Kindergartner. The teachers had a play for them this year, with a theme of elves and pirates. The concept was elves taking a beach vacation and coming across some pirates. One group is searching for treasure and the other is loaded with presents. I won’t bore you with the details, but the gist of the story was getting the pirates to understand the giving and not taking. Grain bears were in a giving mood last week, but decided to switch to a taking mood this week. Both sides have been in a greedy mode in the cattle market, as bulls were tired of giving for the last month, and switched to the taking mode this week.
Corn slipped up in the latter half of the week, with March down 3 cents. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.421 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/27, down from the previous week but still seasonally high. EIA data showed ethanol production rising 13,000 barrels per day in the week ending on November 21 to a record 1.126 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a draw of 543,000 barrels at 22.511 million barrels. Export Sales data was released twice this week as USDA catches up, with 1.8 MMT sold in the week of 10/23 and 1.99 MMT for the week of October 30. Commitment of Traders data is still aged, with managed money in corn futures and options trimming their net short position by 71,479 contracts in the week of 10/28 to 89,506 contracts.
Wheat was mixed this week. Kansas City was higher this week, up 3 ¾ cents, with the other classes weaker. March MPLS spring wheat was down 5 cents, with the Chicago March contract 2 ¾ cents lower. December KC HRW futures were back up 6 ¾ cents. Export Inspections were tallied at 384,881 MT in the week of 11/27. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/23 was at 499,775 MT, with the second release on Thursday morning at 505,415 MT. Canadian wheat production is pegged at 39.96 MMT according to Stats Canada, a 3.3 MMT hike from the September number and 3 MMT above USDA. CFTC data from all the way back on October 28 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options cutting their net short by 33,692 contracts to 75,133 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed 15,563 contracts from their net short to 51,708 contracts in that week.
Soybeans gave into some late week weakness this week, as January closed 32 ½ cents lower. January soybean meal was down $11.30/ton on the week, as bean oil was 36 points (0.69%) lower. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments improving to 920,194 MT in the week of November 27. That is still seasonally low. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 1.45 MMT sold in the week ending on 10/23 and 1.25 MMT in the week of October 30. USDA confirmed 462,000 MT of soybeans to China this week, with the known total for the marketing year at 2.845 MMT. CFTC data is still more than a month behind, with Commitment of Traders showing spec traders net long 118,489 contracts by October 28, with the latest data showing an 83,160 contract increase from the week prior.
Live cattle rallied this week, with a stronger Friday taking the weekly December gain to $11.57. Cash trade improved late this week with $220-225 in the North and $225-226 in the South. Feeders were rallying for much of the week with January up $15.075. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rallied back, up $24.97 week/week to $318.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again this week. Choice was down $5.62 /cwt (-1.5%) this week to $361.20 as Select was $3.66 (1.0%) lower at $347.39 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 20.7% from last week due to the holiday, as well as 0.4% above the same week last year at 534.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.3% lower on a 7.0% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 116,355 contracts as of October 25 in the more than a month delayed Commitment of Traders report this week. Feeders were net long 21,323 contracts on that date.
Hogs saw some strength this week with December $1.05 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 44 cents this week at $81.83 as of December 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held was up $2.17 (2.3%) this week to $96.39/cwt. Weekly pork production was up 29.7% from last week due to the holiday and 4.0% above the same week last year at 587.7 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.4% on a 1.7% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were slashing another 22,070 contracts from their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on October 28, taking it to 95,161 contracts.
Cotton futures turned back lower this week, as March was 78 points in the red. Export Sales from the week of 10/23 were tallied at 132,760 RB, with 10/23 sales totaling just 81,530 RB. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 51.28 cents/lb this week, up 51 points from the week prior. Delayed Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in cotton futures and options slashing back 7,152 contracts from their net short position as of 10/28 to 74,093 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week will see the weekly Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. USDA also release delayed Export Sales data for the week of 11/6 on Monday morning and the week of 11/13 on Thursday morning. Monday is also first notice day for December live cattle futures as well as the last trade day for December cotton futures. USDA will release their monthly WASDE on Tuesday. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning. Friday is the last trade day for December grain futures.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn started consolidating this week with an 11 cent range. Stochastics have transitioned to high to neutral, crossing and technically inert. There is an uptrend line off the August low at $4.38 ½, which brough buyers at the end of November, along with the 100-day moving average at $4.36 ½. That general area is the one to watch in a pullback. Breaking that may indicate a move back towards the August low. On the contrary, there is a downtrend line off the November high at $4.50 ¾ as resistance, along with a 200-day moving average at $4.47 ½. The market seems contend in the $4.35-4.50 area, as demand has remained, with export business continuing and record ethanol grind, despite a record supply of corn around the country. That doesn’t mean something can’t come in and change that.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.